PB69 presents "Fire Dave Martinez" (2018)

[GburgNatsFan]

 

[Minty Fresh]

Of course it isn't...why would you think it was?

I think you'd have to answer that one.  You're the one who posted the stat.....   

[Natsinpwc]

yes, you have to be careful in quoting Hellickson career stats.  He was a ROY and one of the best AL starters, then fell off after a few years.  When he rebounded, he had this pattern of success early in games.  You couple that with virtually every starter being worse 3d time through, then you have something to plan around.  Hellickson is also slotted in after the two bulls who save bullpen innings, so you can plan around Kintzler, Madson, and Doolittle all not having worked both of the prior two games.  It didn't work last night, but it is not a bad plan.

As for Scherzer's pitch count, the only thing I'd add is that many folks thought he wore down late in the season the past couple of years, so I would not be so content to say "he's done this before."

Looking at that list of pitchers, I would not say Danny Duffy's pitch count is a sign of a good year.

Good points.

Even though Max wore down he still won the Cy Young. Not sure if they will do it but that 10 day DL can be used to give guys rest from a start or two. Hope his pillow holds up this year.

[mitlen]

It's above my pay grade.   

[catocony]

Helickson is pitching really, really well at the moment.  I can understand Davey doing a semi-playoff strategy right now, after the horrible April.  Why mess with things?  But, since Helickson is pitching better than he has in years, giving him a chance to go deeper into games is a wise strategy.  If you do it and he melts down, then fine, accept that the fact that he's a glorified long reliever who just happens to start games.  The Nats will need a real long reliever in the bullpen who should be designated to come in after Helickson each game and pitch 2-3 innings.  It ties up a spot in the pen, but right now, Helickson is way better than a #5 guy. 

The Nats rotation right now is best pitcher in baseball as a #1+, another #1 in Strasburg, and three #3 guys in Gio, Roark and Helickson.  Very nice.

[tomterp]

Helickson is pitching really, really well at the moment. 

That repertoire of junk is missing bats like it's got a bit of knuckle mixed in. 

[NJ Ave]

But, since Helickson is pitching better than he has in years, giving him a chance to go deeper into games is a wise strategy.

Hellickson is 31 years old and here is how batters have OPSd against him in his career.

1st time: .671
2nd time: .723
3rd time: .840
 
So counterpoint: maybe we shouldn't be overthinking this just to give him enough rope to hang himself with.

[imref]

I guess the comparison would be .840 versus our 6th inning pitchers out of the pen.

[Ray D]

1st time: .671
2nd time: .723
3rd time: .840
 
So counterpoint: maybe we shouldn't be overthinking this just to give him enough rope to hang himself with.

Before we conclude that he shouldn't be going through the order the third time, I'd be curious to know what is the norm for first second, and third time.  In general, isn't second time slightly worse than first, and third worse than second?

[HalfSmokes]

Before we conclude that he shouldn't be going through the order the third time, I'd be curious to know what is the norm for first second, and third time.  In general, isn't second time slightly worse than first, and third worse than second?

as of 2015, "a typical starting pitcher’s OPS-against climbs from .705 to .731 to .771."

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/managers-on-the-third-time-through-the-order/

[Ray D]

as of 2015, "a typical starting pitcher’s OPS-against climbs from .705 to .731 to .771."

So he's better than the norm first and second time, and worse the third.  So that is an argument for only two times, but not a strong argument.

[NJ Ave]

I think 70 points (or 10%) worse than average is a pretty strong argument. Certainly I think he’ll see the lineup a third time if the bullpen is stretched or tired. But if enough guys are fresh it’s not a big problem and this is something every tram is doing with increasing frequency.

[Ray D]

I think 70 points (or 10%) worse than average is a pretty strong argument. Certainly I think he’ll see the lineup a third time if the bullpen is stretched or tired. But if enough guys are fresh it’s not a big problem and this is something every tram is doing with increasing frequency.

I think it's not so much a matter of enough guys fresh as it is who they are.  Right now, I have confidence in our 8th and 9th inning guys.  Seventh inning, not as much.

[ToddGack]

What’s J.H. numbers for 2017 going through the lineup a third time?

I didn't list his 2017 numbers because he was terrible in 2017. Just like I didn't list his stats for 2013, 2014 and 2015.
When he has been good, 2010--3.47 ERA, 2011--2.95 ERA, 2012--3.10 ERA and 2016--3.71 ERA his Batting Average Against third time through the batting order has not been bad and probably pretty good compared to other non elite starters; 2010--- .200, 2011---- .261, 2012---- .258 and 2016---- .253.
Third time through the lineup has not been a problem in the past when he has been pitching well and right now he is pitching well. He may not be successful but he deserves a shot and if the Nats had a real manager he would base his decision on what is happening on the field in real time instead of reading a piece of paper that includes years when he was just plain bad. And how many of those times third time through the lineup did he only have 60 pitches? His pitch count was probably in the 80s and 90s for most of those third time through the order stats.

[PowerBoater69]

Pull Gio after the HR and the Nats would have the win in the books and a full bullpen ready for the game tomorrow.

[rileyn]

Pull Gio after the HR and the Nats would have the win in the books and a full bullpen ready for the game tomorrow.

Or if Stevenson doesn't try to play hero ball on a pop up hit directly to our LF, we would have a win in the books.

[PowerBoater69]

Or if Stevenson doesn't try to play hero ball on a pop up hit directly to our LF, we would have a win in the books.

Errors happen, I was hoping that Gio would recover better. The look on Martinez's face after that drop was hilarious, I would have expected a little more show of confidence in his guys from our manager.

But really, play to win the shortened game, why let Gonzo throw 111 when he was struggling and there's only two games in four days.

[Natsinpwc]

Pull Gio after the HR and the Nats would have the win in the books and a full bullpen ready for the game tomorrow.

Or given who was up that inning, they give up more than a run and lose. As best I can tell from the radio broadcast the tieing rally was started by a blooper from Stanton.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Or given who was up that inning, they give up more than a run and lose. As best I can tell from the radio broadcast the tieing rally was started by a blooper from Stanton.

walk bloop walk loaded the bases with no outs.  GB 3-2 for the first out, then SF that might have been a grand slam on a good night scored the tying run, and GB 5-3 gets out of the inning.

[LoveAngelos]

I remember  Walter Johnson pitching both ends of a doubleheader.  I was George  Patton then

[PowerBoater69]

Or given who was up that inning, they give up more than a run and lose. As best I can tell from the radio broadcast the tieing rally was started by a blooper from Stanton.

Point conceded, it was better to play for the tie.

[Natsinpwc]

Point conceded, it was better to play for the tie.

simple--win > tie > loss.

no one knows what would have happened of course.

[Natsinpwc]

I remember  Walter Johnson pitching both ends of a doubleheader.  I was George  Patton then

Who?

[Natsinpwc]

walk bloop walk loaded the bases with no outs.  GB 3-2 for the first out, then SF that might have been a grand slam on a good night scored the tying run, and GB 5-3 gets out of the inning.

Gio walked the tightrope all night--even more than usual.  Don't want to see that in October.

[Ray D]

Who?

George C. Scott.
That help?