Author Topic: Productivity of the Nats Farm  (Read 154 times)

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Offline hotshot

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Productivity of the Nats Farm
« Topic Start: October 02, 2019, 01:57:15 PM »
I agree [MLB is] in a period of transition when there seems to be more money spent on pitchers late in their career than position players getting long term deals into their 30s, but I think some of that is due to the big spending teams having a lot of young position talent coming up at the same time.  I also think that the conventional wisdom that smart money doesn't chase pitchers long term over 30 is still generally right, Verlander and Scherzer being huge exceptions. Lots more Prices, Sales, CCs, etc... than there are $150MM+ contracts for pitchers that work out. 


The Cardinals farm system is consistently a gold mine of ML-ready prospects; the Nats system does not compare that well, certainly not in quantity.

Online imref

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #1: October 02, 2019, 02:35:59 PM »
The Cardinals farm system is consistently a gold mine of ML-ready prospects; the Nats system does not compare that well, certainly not in quantity.

Well. We traded a bunch of folks but we still have two more stud prospects.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #2: October 02, 2019, 03:34:12 PM »
The Cardinals farm system is consistently a gold mine of ML-ready prospects; the Nats system does not compare that well, certainly not in quantity.
The system this decade has graduated Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Drew Storen, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Taylor, Trea Turner, Wilson Ramos, Victor Robles, Brian Goodwin, Wilmer Difo, Erik Fedde, Joe Ross, Koda Glover, and I am sure some others I forgot about.

That is at least four players who have or will sign 9 figure contracts and each of those other players played roles on playoff teams. Not every player is an All-Star, but they hung around a team that has been focused on the postseason for the best part of a decade. I am certain there are a number of systems that have had a better decade, but the Nationals have built five playoff rosters around homegrown rosters. Not like the system is just barren.

Online KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #3: October 02, 2019, 05:20:42 PM »
The system this decade has graduated Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Drew Storen, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Taylor, Trea Turner, Wilson Ramos, Victor Robles, Brian Goodwin, Wilmer Difo, Erik Fedde, Joe Ross, Koda Glover, and I am sure some others I forgot about.

:lmao: Half of those names are complete turds.  If people like MAT, Glover, and Difo are the best you can come up with then you've just proven the point about STL having a much better farm system.

Btw, Turner and Ramos were largely products of the Padres and Twins, respectively.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #4: October 02, 2019, 05:26:40 PM »
:lmao: Half of those names are complete turds.  If people like MAT, Glover, and Difo are the best you can come up with then you've just proven the point about STL having a much better farm system.

Btw, Turner and Ramos were largely products of the Padres and Twins, respectively.

Turner's trade couldn't even be made official when it was agreed on because he wasn't a year removed from being drafted.  How was he a product of the Padres when he was known all that year to be headed to the Nats?

Online KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #5: October 02, 2019, 05:29:17 PM »
Turner's trade couldn't even be made official when it was agreed on because he wasn't a year removed from being drafted.  How was he a product of the Padres when he was known all that year to be headed to the Nats?

?? What does that have to do with anything?  He played more minor league games for the Padres than he did for the Nats.  During that time, the Nats presumably provided him no meaningful coaching/instruction.  He didn't even spend so much as a half season in the Nats' farm system.  Calling him a product of the Nats' system is a reach.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #6: October 02, 2019, 05:34:01 PM »
?? What does that have to do with anything?  He played more minor league games for the Padres than he did for the Nats.  During that time, the Nats presumably provided him no meaningful coaching/instruction.  He didn't even spend so much as a half season in the Nats' farm system.  Calling him a product of the Nats' system is a reach.

He played 69 games in the Padres system before being the PTBNL and no longer actually their property.  He then played 58 more before being moved to The Nats.  He played 58 more in the Nats system in 2015, then another 83 in 2016 before being called up. 

So, 141 minor league games with the Nats.  127 for the Padres, only 69 of which he was part of their future.

You are wrong.

Online KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #7: October 02, 2019, 05:37:41 PM »
I missed the 83 in 2016 since it occurred after he played for the Nats in the majors.

My point still stands: that is not a very good list at all.  Top-heavy with good highlights and then a lot of dreck.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #8: October 02, 2019, 05:42:01 PM »
I missed the 83 in 2016 since it occurred after he played for the Nats in the majors.

My point still stands: that is not a very good list at all.  Top-heavy with good highlights and then a lot of dreck.

It's not an extensive list.  Speaking of Turner, him and Joe Ross were acquired thanks to a guy who spent years in the system, Steven Souza.  I've sat in the stands at a Nats spring training game with Souza while he was an "older" prospect still and wondering if he'd ever make it.  Really nice guy, invited me to bible study with some of the other guys.  He was flipped for a star young short stop and a starting pticher that has flashed signs of being good and still may reach that promise. 

Online bluestreak

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #9: October 02, 2019, 05:54:39 PM »
If the Nats don’t get credit for Turner and Ramos, do they get credit for Luzardo and Giolito?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #10: October 02, 2019, 06:24:30 PM »
I really don't want to bog this down into a farm thread, but, regardless of past development, there is no argument that7the system isn't thin now.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #11: October 02, 2019, 10:32:41 PM »
:lmao: Half of those names are complete turds.  If people like MAT, Glover, and Difo are the best you can come up with then you've just proven the point about STL having a much better farm system.

Btw, Turner and Ramos were largely products of the Padres and Twins, respectively.
Michael Taylor is a role player who is a useful pinch runner, pinch hitter, and defensive sub. He is a useful role player with a career WAR a little over 4. That is an MLB player.

Wilmer Difo was a 400 AB player for two teams that had winning records, including a playoff team. Like Taylor, he is more useful as a sub than every day player. That is an MLB player.

In 2017, Koda Glover was looking like a useful pitcher, had a handful of saves, and had a promising future before injuries. That is an MLB player

And no, those three aren't the best I can come up with, which is why I listed five All Stars.

If you want to just talk about stars, okay. My point is this decade the Nationals have pumped out both stars and many role players through the Farm System. Not every player will be Juan Soto, you need guys who will pitch the middle innings, bat in the bottom of the order, and pinch run and be defensive subs in the 9th.

The Nationals have been very balanced in roster construction. Other than Scherzer, the star players are home grown, they've made smart trades, and attacked free agent both for big names and patching up the bullpen. I didn't claim the system was the best, actually said the opposite, but it's not like the Nationals are a free agency only team. I do wish they had more success finding bit players in the bullpen

Offline dracnal

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Re: Re: Extend Rendon
« Reply #12: October 03, 2019, 05:31:18 AM »
Michael Taylor is a role player who is a useful pinch runner, pinch hitter, and defensive sub. He is a useful role player with a career WAR a little over 4. That is an MLB player.

Wilmer Difo was a 400 AB player for two teams that had winning records, including a playoff team. Like Taylor, he is more useful as a sub than every day player. That is an MLB player.

In 2017, Koda Glover was looking like a useful pitcher, had a handful of saves, and had a promising future before injuries. That is an MLB player

And no, those three aren't the best I can come up with, which is why I listed five All Stars.

If you want to just talk about stars, okay. My point is this decade the Nationals have pumped out both stars and many role players through the Farm System. Not every player will be Juan Soto, you need guys who will pitch the middle innings, bat in the bottom of the order, and pinch run and be defensive subs in the 9th.

The Nationals have been very balanced in roster construction. Other than Scherzer, the star players are home grown, they've made smart trades, and attacked free agent both for big names and patching up the bullpen. I didn't claim the system was the best, actually said the opposite, but it's not like the Nationals are a free agency only team. I do wish they had more success finding bit players in the bullpen

I think the real success of the Nats is the Dominican pipeline. Anything involving actual draft picks is either getting the obvious consensus (Strasburg, Harper) or buying a winning lottery ticket (Rendon). That said, I don't thinka 4 WAR career is MLB level. From what I understand 1.8 WAR is considered a standard, acceptable MLB player. That's 1.8 per year. Less than that and yeah, you're a replacement. I think that sums up Difo and MAT pretty well. They both have some individually memorable moments, but they are replacement level players in the grand scheme of things.

Online imref

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Re: Productivity of the Nats Farm
« Reply #13: October 03, 2019, 09:43:03 AM »
I really don't want to bog this down into a farm thread, but, regardless of past development, there is no argument that7the system isn't thin now.

yeah, but we're not the dregs of the league.  We went from 20th in 2018 to 17th in 2019, and that's even after losing Soto. 
https://www.prospectdigest.com/2019/03/22/ranking-the-farm-systems-2019/

We still have legit stud prospects in Garcia (likely late 2020 or 2021 arrival), Kieboom (2020), Yasel Antuna (2022), and a decent amount of quality arms in Denaburg, Cate, and Crowe.  Hopefully Romero finally heads in the right direction next year as well.

I agree with Dracnal, the Dominican pipeline has been extremely effective.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Productivity of the Nats Farm
« Reply #14: October 03, 2019, 09:47:44 AM »
Acid test will be if some of those arms turn into MLB productive players or useful trade chits.  You'd like to see one of those  guys surprise to the upside.  Maybe  Voth is more than we thought he was, too.

Online Slateman

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Re: Productivity of the Nats Farm
« Reply #15: October 03, 2019, 10:54:51 AM »
Sorry, but naming guys like Taylor, Difo, Goodwin, Fedde, and Ross as proof of a productive farm system isn't really anything impressive. These are replacement level players/bottom tier starters. It is expected that your farm system produce these types of players.

Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon were the consensus best players in their respective positions and drafts. Rendon slipped because of injury concerns. If he had been healthy his last season at Rice, he isn't dropping past the second pick. These do not prove the productivity of a farm system.

Storen is a bust. Sorry, but he is.

Giolito and Lopez didn't develop here. When we traded Giolito, he was the worst pitcher in baseball. The White Sox adjusted his mechanics and fixed him. In fact, the reason Lopez isn't here is because Giolito looked so bad here in DC that he wasn't enough to get Eaton.

We traded for Turner and Ramos. Neither spent significant time in Nats farm system, developing skils.

Koda Glover has shown nothing and likely never will.

So far, Robles isn't showing anything that the Nats put together. His value is almost exclusively defensive, which is based exclusively on his athleticism. So kudos to the scouting department for finding a guy with that skill set, but the Nats farm system hasn't done crap to develop him otherwise. If Taylor shows the plate ability of even 2016 or 2015, Robles probably starts the season in Triple A for his development.

Juan Soto really the only arguments to be made of this list. THey did an amazing scouting job to find him. He spent two seasons getting that approach refined and ready for the big leagues.


There are other names you could have gone with, but most of them are in the past. Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann come time mind. Tyler Clippard could be considered an example of productivity of the Nats Farm. Maybe Tanner Roark?

But honestly, what has been done lately? Let's look at the roster and see who has been developed and is an impact player?
- Three of the five starting pitchers are free agents. Strasburg was a no-brainer consensus. Ross has been fine but he's been fairly replaceable.
- Our bullpen has been garbage. Suero was developed here and he might be decent. Anyone else? Grace has been terrible. Who else?
- The starting lineup consists of two players who have spent any significant time in the farm system.


This seems to be highlighted by our incredible drop off at the start of the season and the inability to find relievers. We literally had no one in our system we could call up to try and get some production.

Online KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Productivity of the Nats Farm
« Reply #16: October 03, 2019, 07:14:58 PM »
If you want to just talk about stars, okay.

Nope.  Fedde is no world beater but he might turn out to be a useful #5.  Brad Peacock with the Astros is no star player, but he's decent enough to count as a point of evidence in your favor.

What I won't do is count bums like MAT and Difo as success stories.

The Nats are okay at developing players.  Definitely better than some other sadsack franchises.  They don't come close to juggernauts like the Cards/Astros/Twins, however.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Productivity of the Nats Farm
« Reply #17: October 04, 2019, 11:46:35 AM »
Koda Glover is a total turd and Wilmer Difo is a replacement-level dude. We're mostly adequate at developing players who are already good but finding diamonds in the later rounds is a total loss. After the first round we basically draft guys who are trade fodder for a mid-season reliever.

Online Slateman

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Re: Productivity of the Nats Farm
« Reply #18: October 04, 2019, 11:47:31 AM »
Koda Glover is a total turd.
I dont even know how we can determine that. Hes never healthy

Offline nats4ever

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Re: Productivity of the Nats Farm
« Reply #19: October 11, 2019, 07:49:08 AM »
The Cardinals farm system is consistently a gold mine of ML-ready prospects; the Nats system does not compare that well, certainly not in quantity.
You a lowkey Cardinals fan? Just kidding.. Nats have done a decent job having homegrown talent.