Wild Card - Getting Ready for the Brewers

[imref]

Aaron Barrett throwing out the first pitch tomorrow.

[bluestreak]

The Brewers scare me. I know it’s a win or go home game - but they have nothing to lose. They lost their MVP. Braun is hurt. Cain is hurt. Nobody expects them to do anything. The pressure is on the Nats.

Yes. I’d much rather have the team “with nothing to lose” than the team with superior personnel.

[Slateman]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dougherty_jesse/status/1178785474057576448

[UMDNats]

The pressure is on both teams because the loser is done for the year. They're not some big underdog and we're not some stud favorite.

[djbaseball13]

Leta dwell on this statement. You can only conclude one of three things

1. Davey doesnt know this and no one in the analytics section has told him

2. Davey doesnt know this and neither does anyone else in the franchise.

3. Davey knows this and is doesnt care.


Which one of those gives you the most confidence that this team is going to pull out the WC Game?

I'll take #3...   I feel that there is less stress on the Nats because after Harper left, and the slow start, many people had written them off.  The thing that gives me confidence is that the pure baseball talent is top-notch and better than Brewers. The Nats have a clear advantage!

[spidernat]

Does Davey know this?  I'm CERTAIN that he would start Stras if he did.     Some of were laughed at for even suggesting that we start another pitcher besides Max.

[spidernat]

Aaron Barrett throwing out the first pitch tomorrow.

bring your glove mitlen

[RobDibblesGhost]

Ernie Johnson, Ron Darling and Jeff Francoeur in the booth for TBS with Lauren Shehadi on the field.

[spidernat]

When Parra comes up to the plate she's going to think people are doing the gator chomp

[imref]

Nats Xtra tonight at 8 pm on MASN.

[NatsAllThe Way]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dougherty_jesse/status/1178785474057576448

Aaron Barrett is starting the game?  Davey has finally lost his mind.

[rbw5t]

Last 5 starts:
29.2 IP, 26H, 17ER, 43K, 6BBs, 5.16 ERA, opponents batting .230 / .264 / . 460 against him, but BAbip is .303 which is really high.

Stras on the other hand:
30 IP, 18H, 8ER , 36Ks, 13 BBs, 2.40 ERA, opponents batting .171 / .269 / .324, BAbip is .215

that Max can give us four or five strong. 

I'm in the camp that felt it might be best to go with the hot hand (Stras), but...  Those differences don't seem to me to be strongly favoring Stras over Max.  The WHIPs are essentially identical, and the K/BB rate STRONGLY favors Max.  WHIP and K/BB are two of the most strongly predictive factors and correlate generally with success.  Max's much higher ERA is driven by the much higher slugging, which is driven by the HRs.  HR/Fly ball rate is one of the least predictive measures of future outcomes.  Max is a fly ball pitcher, and does give up homers (as we all know), but the quoted "last 5 game" stats don't really show any indication that Stras rather than Max is likely be more effective. 

Either way, I'm both hopeful and nervous!

[skippy1999]

Ernie Johnson, Ron Darling and Jeff Francoeur in the booth for TBS with Lauren Shehadi on the field.

Darling

[RiotAct]

wait, Gio will be pitching for them???

[trangert418]

But we can't account for things like a random bloop scoring a run or a walk-off-balk.

No random bloops falling in if Willie Mays Adams is out there.

[djbaseball13]

I'm in the camp that felt it might be best to go with the hot hand (Stras), but...  Those differences don't seem to me to be strongly favoring Stras over Max.  The WHIPs are essentially identical, and the K/BB rate STRONGLY favors Max.  WHIP and K/BB are two of the most strongly predictive factors and correlate generally with success.  Max's much higher ERA is driven by the much higher slugging, which is driven by the HRs.  HR/Fly ball rate is one of the least predictive measures of future outcomes.  Max is a fly ball pitcher, and does give up homers (as we all know), but the quoted "last 5 game" stats don't really show any indication that Stras rather than Max is likely be more effective. 

Either way, I'm both hopeful and nervous!

If you look at the stats then yes, Stras has been way more effective in the past 5 games. Also, if you look at their entire career you will see almost identical numbers.    i.e.  both pitchers had a 1.17 K/inning. and their ERA was similar.   The fans on this board seem to value CY young awards and hype rather than overall success.   But, it shouldn't matter because both pitchers are great! I just hope that Davey didn't promise Stras any innings, or any kind of pre-game compromise. I don't think Stras would want to rock the boat anyway. 

[imref]

I honestly don't think it's going to matter all that much who starts.  Max, unless he's pitching a no-hitter, likely goes 3 innings, then Strasburg comes in.  They both were going to pitch no matter who started.

[bluestreak]

If you look at the stats then yes, Stras has been way more effective in the past 5 games. Also, if you look at their entire career you will see almost identical numbers.    i.e.  both pitchers had a 1.17 K/inning. and their ERA was similar.   The fans on this board seem to value CY young awards and hype rather than overall success.   But, it shouldn't matter because both pitchers are great! I just hope that Davey didn't promise Stras any innings, or any kind of pre-game compromise. I don't think Stras would want to rock the boat anyway.

I think the Stats don’t say Strasburg has been Way better. He’s walked more batters and struck out less. And I think the number for ERA look way better if that ball that Soto lost in the lights is an error and not a double.

I think you could have made the case to start Strasburg. But I don’t think it’s idiotic to start the guy who seems to have better control right now. 

[bluestreak]

I honestly don't think it's going to matter all that much who starts.  Max, unless he's pitching a no-hitter, likely goes 3 innings, then Strasburg comes in.  They both were going to pitch no matter who started.

3 innings?

[imref]

3 innings?

Yeah, I don't think he's going deep into the game.   

FWIW, I took a look at last year's results, both NL starters went at least 6 (Freeland went 6.2).  On the AL side, Severino was done after 4 and the A's bull-penned.

In 2017, the Yankees starter went 0.1 (again, Severino), and the Twins starter (Ervin Santana) went 2.  On the NL side, Jon Grey went 1.1 for Colorado and Grienke went 3.2 for Arizona.

[imref]

Let Teddy Win! @LetTeddyWin
1m
Gates open at 5:30pm for the #Nats #Brewers NL Wild Card game at Nationals Park.
There will be giveways at the gate.
Nationals batting practice starts at 5:40pm.
First pitch 8:08pm.

Kolko tweets that The US Army Chorus Quartet will sing the anthem. DC Washington will sing God Bless America.

[Mathguy]

The Nats are saying that all gates open at 5:30pm on Tuesday

[Scrapple]

The Brewers scare me. I know it’s a win or go home game - but they have nothing to lose. They lost their MVP. Braun is hurt. Cain is hurt. Nobody expects them to do anything. The pressure is on the Nats.

Underestimating the Brewers would be a huge mistake. Mike Moustakas is one of the tougher players I have ever had the pleasure of watching. He is THE EXAMPLE of the saying, 'It's not the size of the dog in fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog'. Winning seems to follow him around.
If our Nationals are gonna win this game they’re gonna have to shake off their demons then go through Mike Moustakas to get it. This will not be easy that is for sure.

The key to success - If you really want it, “YOU FREAKING TAKE IT!!!!




LETS GO NAAAAAAAAATS!

[bluestreak]

Underestimating the Brewers would be a huge mistake. Mike Moustakas is one of the tougher players I have ever had the pleasure of watching. He is THE EXAMPLE of the saying, 'It's not the size of the dog in fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog'. Winning seems to follow him around.
If our Nationals are gonna win this game they’re gonna have to shake off their demons then go through Mike Moustakas to get it. This will not be easy that is for sure.

The key to success - If you really want it, “YOU FREAKING TAKE IT!!!!




LETS GO NAAAAAAAAATS!

 

[Slateman]

Well then, we can just sign Moustakas in free agency . . .