Nats Outfield Defense

[bluestreak]

The Nationals outfield has the best defense in baseball. According to outs above average. And they are first by a wide margin. In fact, it’s the largest gap between first and second place since they have been measuring (albeit only 4 years). 

https://www.mlb.com/news/nationals-outfield-defense-has-become-a-strength

Again, the "record" here is very short. Statcast came online in 2015, and Outs Above Average is available from 2016 on. We are not talking about a great deal of history. And yet, because the '18 Nationals were a net negative, ranking 26th at -16, there was a lot of room to grow. Grow they have.

+40 -- 2019 Nationals (from -16 OAA to +24)
+30 -- 2018 Pirates (from -13 OAA to +17)
+29 -- 2018 Brewers (from +1 OAA to +30)
+28 -- 2017 Twins (from +6 OAA to +34)
+27 -- 2018 Braves (from -5 OAA to +22)

Last year, as Bryce Harper neared and reached free agency, an endless amount of digital ink was spilled on the topic of Harper's poor defensive performance. Only four outfielders rated worse in OAA than his -13, and two of them (Daniel Palka, Minors; Rhys Hoskins, first base) don't even play the outfield regularly any longer. That -13, as you can imagine, was a big part of Washington's -16, though as you'll see, it was about a lot more than just Harper.

(In Harper's defense: As we investigated over the winter, his poor defensive play didn't seem to be about lack of skill, just lack of execution. In his first year with Philadelphia, he's improved all the way to +1 OAA.)

It's also about Soto and Adam Eaton improving

Harper aside, the 2018 Nationals had a few issues in the outfield. Eaton and Soto each checked in -6 OAA, giving Washington three of the 17 lowest-ranked qualified outfield defenders.

This year, Eaton has gone from -6 to +1. Soto has gone from -6 to +6. Soto's turnaround of 12 OAA is the third-largest in baseball behind Nicholas Castellanos (-24 to -6) and Harper (-13 to -1). Eaton is just outside the top dozen.

[Mathguy]

So how much of this is due to having Robles in CF ?

[Slateman]

So how much of this is due to having Robles in CF ?

Almost all of it

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Nationals outfield has the best defense in baseball. According to outs above average. And they are first by a wide margin. In fact, it’s the largest gap between first and second place since they have been measuring (albeit only 4 years). 

https://www.mlb.com/news/nationals-outfield-defense-has-become-a-strength

are you reading that table right?  I read it as saying the Nats have the biggest improvement (from -16 to +24, or 40 runs better than 2018) but that at least Milwaukee and the Twins are more runs above average in 2019 at +34 and +30.

[bluestreak]

are you reading that table right?  I read it as saying the Nats have the biggest improvement (from -16 to +24, or 40 runs better than 2018) but that at least Milwaukee and the Twins are more runs above average in 2019 at +34 and +30.

A year after Washington's outfield defense was a clear weakness, it's now a massive strength. They rank No. 1 in Outs Above Average, the Statcast measure of outfield quality. They've had the largest year-over-year improvement in the four years that the metric has existed. They have the largest gap a first-place team has had over a second-place team. They've been ... outstanding.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

A year after Washington's outfield defense was a clear weakness, it's now a massive strength. They rank No. 1 in Outs Above Average, the Statcast measure of outfield quality. They've had the largest year-over-year improvement in the four years that the metric has existed. They have the largest gap a first-place team has had over a second-place team. They've been ... outstanding.

The red doesn't match the table you posted.  The 2019 OAA you posted shows +24 for the Nats, +30 for the Brewers, and +34 for the Twins.  Biggest improvement, yes - 40 runs, from -16 to +24 in OAA.  But best OAA, no.

[Slateman]

Just think of how much better be when we sign Billy Hamilton,  move Robles to RF, Eaton to LF, and Soto to first

[bluestreak]

The red doesn't match the table you posted.  The 2019 OAA you posted shows +24 for the Nats, +30 for the Brewers, and +34 for the Twins.  Biggest improvement, yes - 40 runs, from -16 to +24 in OAA.  But best OAA, no.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/outs_above_average?type=team&year=2019&min=q&_gl=1*14zubvi*_gcl_aw*R0NMLjE1NjI2OTcwNzIuRUFJYUlRb2JDaE1JOEl6dW1yeW80d0lWVVA3akJ4M1lmZzVHRUFBWUFTQUJFZ0xQS2ZEX0J3RQ..*_gcl_dc*R0NMLjE1NjI2OTcwNzIuRUFJYUlRb2JDaE1JOEl6dW1yeW80d0lWVVA3akJ4M1lmZzVHRUFBWUFTQUJFZ0xQS2ZEX0J3RQ..

The other teams in my initial post were from different seasons. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/outs_above_average?type=team&year=2019&min=q&_gl=1*14zubvi*_gcl_aw*R0NMLjE1NjI2OTcwNzIuRUFJYUlRb2JDaE1JOEl6dW1yeW80d0lWVVA3akJ4M1lmZzVHRUFBWUFTQUJFZ0xQS2ZEX0J3RQ..*_gcl_dc*R0NMLjE1NjI2OTcwNzIuRUFJYUlRb2JDaE1JOEl6dW1yeW80d0lWVVA3akJ4M1lmZzVHRUFBWUFTQUJFZ0xQS2ZEX0J3RQ..

The other teams in my initial post were from different seasons. 

ok. That wasn't clear from the OP.  Very impressive then.  when you add that most of the CF innings were Robles and Taylor, then you can see where the good number came from.

Just to add on, the top 3 teams in 2019 are the Nats at +24, the Astros at +10, and the Padres at +8. After that, there's no gap between teams that's more than 2 runs until you get to the bottom 4 - Pirates - 9, Os -13, Marlins -14, and Tigers -17. 

I know a lot of advanced stats don't like Turner and Rendon, but I haven't thought they've been that bad (until the past week ).  Dozier was pretty good.  I guess one aspect of the fundamentals has been going well.

[sixthree175]

ok. That wasn't clear from the OP.  Very impressive then.  when you add that most of the CF innings were Robles and Taylor, then you can see where the good number came from.

Just to add on, the top 3 teams in 2019 are the Nats at +24, the Astros at +10, and the Padres at +8. After that, there's no gap between teams that's more than 2 runs until you get to the bottom 4 - Pirates - 9, Os -13, Marlins -14, and Tigers -17. 

I know a lot of advanced stats don't like Turner and Rendon, but I haven't thought they've been that bad (until the past week ).  Dozier was pretty good.  I guess one aspect of the fundamentals has been going well.

I haven't been looking at defensive metrics.  The eye test tells me that Turner is a slightly below average SS, but that Rendon is an above average third baseman.  Do you believe Rendon is below average?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I haven't been looking at defensive metrics.  The eye test tells me that Turner is a slightly below average SS, but that Rendon is an above average third baseman.  Do you believe Rendon is below average?

I think Rendon is excellent, well above average.  Short list of GG candidates most years.  Turner I think has strengths and weaknesses.  I think his range / positioning is fine, he's quick enough, has a strong enough arm and a good release.  I think his weakness is that a lot of balls he gets his glove on seem to clang off his glove.  Fielding misplays as opposed to range or arm problems.  I think left-side defense is a strength but it may not show up in this year's stats.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Following up #10, from a Fangraphs perspective, Rendon is one of the top 3 defensive 3B in the NL, well behind Arenado and slightly ahead of Longoria.  Good gap to the next 3B, Machado.  Turner, OTOH, is the worst defensive regular shortstop by their ratings (among 21 qualifying shortstops).  To my surprise, where he gets punished most is on range.  Almost the whole issue with his D if you play with the numbers. Makes plays in the shortstop "zone" but makes the holes to his left and right look like .  .  .  holes. Maybe I've gotten fooled by the "groundball past a diving Jeter" look of his range.

Fangraphs shortstop fielding rankings

[nfotiu]

Following up #10, from a Fangraphs perspective, Rendon is one of the top 3 defensive 3B in the NL, well behind Arenado and slightly ahead of Longoria.  Good gap to the next 3B, Machado.  Turner, OTOH, is the worst defensive regular shortstop by their ratings (among 21 qualifying shortstops).  To my surprise, where he gets punished most is on range.  Almost the whole issue with his D if you play with the numbers. Makes plays in the shortstop "zone" but makes the holes to his left and right look like .  .  .  holes. Maybe I've gotten fooled by the "groundball past a diving Jeter" look of his range.

Fangraphs shortstop fielding rankings

I've always thought (and posted here) that Turner's range looks terrible, and it's always seemed weird given his speed.  So many hits that get through the left side are outs when we're up to bat.  With shifts in place so often now, I wonder how much of it has with him being in the wrong spot.  Or is he just getting good jumps?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So how much of this is due to having Robles in CF ?

a heck of a lot.  He ended up leading the majors in outs above average, the stat Bluestreak cited, with +21.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2019-league-leaders

[imref]

a heck of a lot.  He ended up leading the majors in outs above average, the stat Bluestreak cited, with +21.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2019-league-leaders

I haven't looked at other stats, but does this mean he's the favorite for a gold glove?

[bluestreak]

I haven't looked at other stats, but does this mean he's the favorite for a gold glove?

Probably not. Isn’t that largely reputational?

[UMDNats]

Probably not. Isn’t that largely reputational?

reputation and how good you are offensively