It's not really a LAC argument. I do think the team, at least since the RZ contract, will not sign one of their own developed guys early unless he signs at a discount to market. I think Stras is the exceptional signing that proves the rule, especially if he opts out. It's saved their butt with Desmond and with Zimmermann, and probably will end up a good move with Harper, too. Would I rather they take some risk and lock down a Soto or a Robles (ship sailed on Turner) while they still had some pre-arb years left and use that risk to buy a couple of cheaper FA years? Yes, but I realize it takes players willing to do that trade off too. That said, if it were a coin flip, you'd think occasionally the coin would come up heads and we'd sign a few of these guys early.
However, I said this isn't a LAC argument. What I think the argument is is that baseball fans are not day traders, indifferent to the inventory being held at any time. If you want some emotional investment from fans, players they've seen develop and whose jerseys they've bought need to be retained occasionally when it makes sense to the team structure and the market. Arenado is probably worth more to the Rockies than Rendon would be, no matter how similar they are statistically, because the Rockies fans have invested in Arenado. Similarly, Donaldson on a 1 year deal might be worth close enough to Rendon to make some sense on the field as a short term patch, especially if Kieboom walks on water, but it will chafe on the "fan" and the loyalty aspect around here. The countdown to Turner's departure is next, after Rendon leaves and Strasburg opts out. Why bother to buy a season ticket or a jersey?
Yeah, and Colorado has a .417 last place team with a 170 million payroll. The big thing the more savvy GMs are figuring out these days is that it doesn't make sense to sign position players deep into the UFA years when they start declining almost near the beginning of a long contract. Rizzo has shown he's willing to commit money to pitchers fairly long term. The Dodgers, Cubs and even the Yankees are all shying away from locking in position players long term because they expect their teams to be good every year. Some of those teams do have a bit better luck with the "Sign with us a short term if you want to keep being a Dodger/Yankee/etc and live in south Cali..." that we haven't really had so far. Some position players and their agents have also wised up to the fact that the UFA market for them isn't what it used to be, and are willing to sign extensions to take the risk out of it. Unfortunately Boras will fight with everything he has to try to keep that UFA market strong. I don't think any of the Dodgers, Cubs or Yankees would extend Rendon for 8+ years.
