Author Topic: Wild Card watch  (Read 8536 times)

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Offline nfotiu

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #125: August 22, 2019, 11:04:23 AM »
I'm glad you can enjoy them, but I find the enjoyment of them less fulfilling as we get further and further away from the 2012 Shutdown Decision. We fired a guy who managed this team to 97 wins  because he didn't get past the NLDS.


I'd rather set this team up for a real chance at significant postseason succes than try and be happy with losing a WC game.

We got spoiled having a good team while the rest of the NL East was down.   It's not that easy to build a team to make the playoffs regularly.   The manager should have never been fired based on a playoff loss. 

You can do everything right in a rebuild and if you don't have a pitching staff that stays healthy,  you might not sniff the playoffs for the next 10 years.  We need to enjoy these years where we're competitive, and this may actually be the team with the most potential to do something in the playoffs that we've had yet.

Online imref

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #126: August 22, 2019, 11:33:31 AM »
We got spoiled having a good team while the rest of the NL East was down.   It's not that easy to build a team to make the playoffs regularly.   The manager should have never been fired based on a playoff loss. 

You can do everything right in a rebuild and if you don't have a pitching staff that stays healthy,  you might not sniff the playoffs for the next 10 years.  We need to enjoy these years where we're competitive, and this may actually be the team with the most potential to do something in the playoffs that we've had yet.

Yep.  7 consecutive years of being at or near the top of a division is a pretty good run.  It just would be nice to have some playoff success. :)

Offline rileyn

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #127: August 23, 2019, 05:35:06 AM »
The push is ON from these teams.  For the second night in a row, the only team to lose was the loser of the St. Louis/Milwaukee game.  The Mets have some magic going at home, and the Phillies take 2 from Boston.  Damn.   The Cubs are also a different at home vs away.
3rd night in a row - every team we are fighting for a WC spot, won.....
Mets sweep Indians
Cardinals come back from 5 down to win.
Cubs sweep Giants.
Braves sweep Marlins.

Offline Truconfidence

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #128: August 23, 2019, 06:07:03 AM »
Well this weekend, we get some confrontation. Mets and Braves play. we play the Cubs.

Online bluestreak

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #129: August 23, 2019, 08:33:36 AM »
3rd night in a row - every team we are fighting for a WC spot, won.....
Mets sweep Indians
Cardinals come back from 5 down to win.
Cubs sweep Giants.
Braves sweep Marlins.

Nationals also won.

Online bluestreak

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #130: August 24, 2019, 03:23:46 AM »
The Nats have a run differential of +100. Which is second in the NL to only the Dodgers (+217). The Nats are only one of 3 teams in the NL that are over .500 at home and on the road. The Nats are second only to the Dodgers in both Pythagorean expected wins and base runs expected wins.

By almost any metric, the Nats are the second best team in the National League. 

It sucks that they dug themselves such a big hole. But I’m optimistic about this team based on data. No team wants to see us in the playoffs.

I’m calling it now. The Nationals will be in the World Series this year.

Online Slateman

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #131: August 24, 2019, 10:12:03 AM »
No one is even remotely concerned with this team if chokers

Online varoadking

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #132: August 24, 2019, 11:04:57 AM »
The Nats have a run differential of +100. Which is second in the NL to only the Dodgers (+217). The Nats are only one of 3 teams in the NL that are over .500 at home and on the road. The Nats are second only to the Dodgers in both Pythagorean expected wins and base runs expected wins.

By almost any metric, the Nats are the second best team in the National League. 

It sucks that they dug themselves such a big hole. But I’m optimistic about this team based on data. No team wants to see us in the playoffs.

I’m calling it now. The Nationals will be in the World Series this year.

Wager?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #133: August 24, 2019, 11:35:59 AM »
Wager?
first born plus 25% of all your crops and cattle

Online imref

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #134: August 24, 2019, 11:43:42 AM »
If we get past theWC end up against LA and their left-hand heavy lineup.  Well, ugh.

Online Baseball is Life

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #135: August 24, 2019, 12:05:02 PM »
The Nats have a run differential of +100. Which is second in the NL to only the Dodgers (+217). The Nats are only one of 3 teams in the NL that are over .500 at home and on the road. The Nats are second only to the Dodgers in both Pythagorean expected wins and base runs expected wins.

By almost any metric, the Nats are the second best team in the National League. 

It sucks that they dug themselves such a big hole. But I’m optimistic about this team based on data. No team wants to see us in the playoffs.

I’m calling it now. The Nationals will be in the World Series this year.


I’ll buy that.

Online bluestreak

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #136: August 24, 2019, 12:13:41 PM »
If we get past theWC end up against LA and their left-hand heavy lineup.  Well, ugh.

That’s why you pitch Max in the Wild Card game and let Corbin be your game 1 starter so he can pitch twice.

Offline djbaseball13

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #137: August 24, 2019, 12:17:00 PM »
The Nats have a run differential of +100. Which is second in the NL to only the Dodgers (+217). The Nats are only one of 3 teams in the NL that are over .500 at home and on the road. The Nats are second only to the Dodgers in both Pythagorean expected wins and base runs expected wins.

By almost any metric, the Nats are the second best team in the National League. 

It sucks that they dug themselves such a big hole. But I’m optimistic about this team based on data. No team wants to see us in the playoffs.

I’m calling it now. The Nationals will be in the World Series this year.

I like it! Bullpen needs to step up, and 1st base (Zim, Adams, Kendrick) need to be consistent. If Davey can manage the pitching staff then I see no reason why not.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #138: August 24, 2019, 12:23:54 PM »
Wager?

Ah man, I miss a good avatar bet.

Offline spidernat

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #139: August 24, 2019, 12:28:32 PM »
Ah man, I miss a good avatar bet.




Remember when we used to do drafts from the game's lineup and see who ended up with the higher cumulative OBP for avatar bets? Those teams were so bad we used to make up crap to pass the time and make it more interesting. :lol:


I miss wagers for posting privileges.

Online varoadking

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #140: August 24, 2019, 12:40:54 PM »
Ah man, I miss a good avatar bet.

Stay tuned...Spidey and I have one pending... 😉

Offline spidernat

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #141: August 24, 2019, 12:49:38 PM »
:?

Offline The Chief

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #142: August 24, 2019, 01:11:06 PM »
Remember when we used to do drafts from the game's lineup and see who ended up with the higher cumulative OBP for avatar bets? Those teams were so bad we used to make up crap to pass the time and make it more interesting. :lol:

Those years definitely had a certain charm, but I don't miss the on-field part of it.

ACE!  SEVEN KAYS!  :hysterical:

Online bluestreak

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #143: August 25, 2019, 01:01:37 AM »
I’m going to post the playoff odds from the three major prognosticators and update throughout the rest of the season. I didn’t think it needed it’s own thread.

FanGraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
Playoff Odds: 95.3%  Division Odds: 12.7%  World Series Odds: 5.7% Projected Record: 91-71

FiveThirtyEight: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Playoff Odds: 94%  Division Odds: 16%. World Series Odds: 7%  Projected Record: 91-71

Baseball Prospectus: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
Playoff Odds: 89.8% Division Odds: 10.5% World Series Odds: 4.9%  Projected Record: 89-73

Notes: FiveThirtyEight includes a team rating and currently rates the Nats as the fourth best team in baseball and second in the NL.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #144: August 25, 2019, 04:55:06 AM »
I am suspicious of the data used in these forecasts as really being representative of the team's performance over recent months.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #145: August 25, 2019, 06:59:53 PM »
5.5 games clear in the wild card.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #146: August 25, 2019, 07:01:07 PM »
I am suspicious of the data used in these forecasts as really being representative of the team's performance over recent months.
That’s why the odds are so high for them to make the playoffs. The Barves are playing just as well. That’s why the odds are so low to win the division. Not rocket science.

Online Baseball is Life

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #147: August 25, 2019, 07:03:44 PM »
I'm getting warmed to the idea of a WC in DC. It would be fun to see a one game take all clash.

Offline djbaseball13

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #148: August 25, 2019, 07:04:13 PM »
That’s why the odds are so high for them to make the playoffs. The Barves are playing just as well. That’s why the odds are so low to win the division. Not rocket science.

Lets keep rolling and see what happens when we face the Braves. At least we can make them earn it!

Online Baseball is Life

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #149: August 25, 2019, 07:05:05 PM »
Sorry to the superstitious but here are the postseason schedules. If things hold true to what they are today, Nats would host a WC game on Oct. 1.

https://www.mlb.com/fans/postseason#nlwc