The reason why you shouldn't get too excited or too deflated about these pace stats is that A.) You don't know what the Braves are going to do, they could go ice cold for a stretch a la the Phillies and B.) You play the Braves several times and a few clutch wins against them like a sweep could turn the tables.
Think about this, if the Nats finish these next two series vs KC and MIA 5-1 and gain a few games they could go in to the break back 4 or 5 games. Then they have a series with ATL right away in 2nd half. A sweep there could see them 1 or 2 GB and all those stats about pace and wins per month are out the window. The gap has closed and all that matters is winning more than ATL.
Except that the gap
hasn't closed as to the Braves. The Nats were 6 games back on June 1 and now it's 7. Yes, they've passed the Mets and Phillies and are in the hunt for a wild card, but making up a 7 game gap over 79 games is not easy. If the Braves even play one game under .500 the rest of the way, they win 87 games. The Nats need to go 45-34 to tie even that. That's .570. It's doable, but even that's not easy, and again it relies on the Braves playing sub-.500 for the rest of the season.
On the other hand, the lack of separation among the rest of the league means that 87 wins is likely to be right in the Wild Card hunt unless a couple teams get hot.
