Author Topic: 16 a month  (Read 1254 times)

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Offline Senatorswin

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16 a month
« Topic Start: July 01, 2019, 12:29:35 PM »
At the start of July the Nats are 42-41. Dusty used to say the goal is to win at least 16 a month. So far they won:

March - 1
April - 11
May - 12
June - 18

If they win 16 in July (out of 25), 16 in August (out of 26) and 16 in September (out of 28) they'll end up with 90 wins and let the chips fall where they may.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #1: July 01, 2019, 12:52:47 PM »
At the start of July the Nats are 42-41. Dusty used to say the goal is to win at least 16 a month. So far they won:

March - 1
April - 11
May - 12
June - 18

If they win 16 in July (out of 25), 16 in August (out of 26) and 16 in September (out of 28) they'll end up with 90 wins and let the chips fall where they may.

It's a nice rule of thumb, but it's 16 a month pace over the full season.  Sixteen a month over the full season gives you a high-90s win pace, which is why it's the line.  Ignoring the stub of March, they're at 41 wins over 3 months, which is less than 14 a month.  If you undershoot the goal for a couple months, you need to make it up somewhere else, at least in part.  The fact that they just went 18-8 for an entire month and lost ground versus Atlanta should give people some pause about what an uphill fight it is.

Online Slateman

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #2: July 01, 2019, 12:58:06 PM »
It's a nice rule of thumb, but it's 16 a month pace over the full season.  Sixteen a month over the full season gives you a high-90s win pace, which is why it's the line.  Ignoring the stub of March, they're at 41 wins over 3 months, which is less than 14 a month.  If you undershoot the goal for a couple months, you need to make it up somewhere else, at least in part.  The fact that they just went 18-8 for an entire month and lost ground versus Atlanta should give people some pause about what an uphill fight it is.
So 19 wins a month.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #3: July 01, 2019, 01:49:01 PM »
So 19 wins a month.

Which is an insanely high bar.  They have 79 games left, so they'd need to go 57-22 (which is nearly a 117-win pace). 

Offline expos1994

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #4: July 01, 2019, 02:29:31 PM »
The reason why you shouldn't get too excited or too deflated about these pace stats is that A.) You don't know what the Braves are going to do, they could go ice cold for a stretch a la the Phillies and B.) You play the Braves several times and a few clutch wins against them like a sweep could turn the tables.

Think about this, if the Nats finish these next two series vs KC and MIA 5-1 and gain a few games they could go in to the break back 4 or 5 games. Then they have a series with ATL right away in 2nd half. A sweep there could see them 1 or 2 GB and all those stats about pace and wins per month are out the window. The gap has closed and all that matters is winning more than ATL.

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #5: July 01, 2019, 02:43:57 PM »
At the start of July the Nats are 42-41. Dusty used to say the goal is to win at least 16 a month. So far they won:

March - 1
April - 11
May - 12
June - 18

If they win 16 in July (out of 25), 16 in August (out of 26) and 16 in September (out of 28) they'll end up with 90 wins and let the chips fall where they may.

March really screwed us.

Offline spidernat

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #6: July 01, 2019, 02:56:19 PM »
:hysterical:

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #7: July 01, 2019, 03:09:53 PM »
 :spit:

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #8: July 01, 2019, 03:14:03 PM »
The reason why you shouldn't get too excited or too deflated about these pace stats is that A.) You don't know what the Braves are going to do, they could go ice cold for a stretch a la the Phillies and B.) You play the Braves several times and a few clutch wins against them like a sweep could turn the tables.

Think about this, if the Nats finish these next two series vs KC and MIA 5-1 and gain a few games they could go in to the break back 4 or 5 games. Then they have a series with ATL right away in 2nd half. A sweep there could see them 1 or 2 GB and all those stats about pace and wins per month are out the window. The gap has closed and all that matters is winning more than ATL.

Except that the gap hasn't closed as to the Braves.  The Nats were 6 games back on June 1 and now it's 7.  Yes, they've passed the Mets and Phillies and are in the hunt for a wild card, but making up a 7 game gap over 79 games is not easy.  If the Braves even play one game under .500 the rest of the way, they win 87 games.   The Nats need to go 45-34 to tie even that.  That's .570.   It's doable, but even that's not easy, and again it relies on the Braves playing sub-.500 for the rest of the season.   

On the other hand, the lack of separation among the rest of the league means that 87 wins is likely to be right in the Wild Card hunt unless a couple teams get hot. 


Offline expos1994

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #9: July 01, 2019, 04:03:55 PM »
Except that the gap hasn't closed as to the Braves.  The Nats were 6 games back on June 1 and now it's 7.  Yes, they've passed the Mets and Phillies and are in the hunt for a wild card, but making up a 7 game gap over 79 games is not easy.  If the Braves even play one game under .500 the rest of the way, they win 87 games.   The Nats need to go 45-34 to tie even that.  That's .570.   It's doable, but even that's not easy, and again it relies on the Braves playing sub-.500 for the rest of the season.   

On the other hand, the lack of separation among the rest of the league means that 87 wins is likely to be right in the Wild Card hunt unless a couple teams get hot.

No the gap hasn't closed yet. But if they take care of MIAMI and KC before the break and then Sweep Atlanta coming out of the break. Then suddenly the gap would be all but closed. It's a lot to ask of them especially the sweeping ATL part.. but it's possible.

Offline rileyn

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #10: July 01, 2019, 04:58:01 PM »
No the gap hasn't closed yet. But if they take care of MIAMI and KC before the break and then Sweep Atlanta coming out of the break. Then suddenly the gap would be all but closed. It's a lot to ask of them especially the sweeping ATL part.. but it's possible.
I'm not going to count on a 4 game sweep in Atlanta.

Offline nats2playoffs

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #11: July 01, 2019, 05:16:39 PM »
As of July 1, 2019, the remaining number of games against the NL East:

Atlanta 14
Philadelphia 7+makeup Sept 24 = 8
NY Mets 6
Miami 9 (including 3 game series on July 2-4, 2019).

If you want to defeat Atlanta, just pursue the General Sherman Plan...




Online Slateman

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #12: July 01, 2019, 08:14:07 PM »
Which is an insanely high bar.  They have 79 games left, so they'd need to go 57-22 (which is nearly a 117-win pace). 
I'm already on record as saying they wont make the playoffs.

If Rizzo wanted to do that, he needed to fix the bullpen six weeks ago

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #13: July 01, 2019, 08:41:33 PM »
I'm already on record as saying they wont make the playoffs.

If Rizzo wanted to do that, he needed to fix the bullpen six weeks ago

As am I, per the predictions thread. 

Online varoadking

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #14: July 01, 2019, 09:16:26 PM »
Pretty sure Rusty said 15 wins per month, but whatever...

My prediction after looking at the remaining schedule: 

July - 12 wins, August - 13 wins, September 14 wins.  Add those 39 wins to their current 42, and you get 81 Wins / 81 Losses for the season.  No playoffs...

Sounds legit...

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #15: July 01, 2019, 09:19:47 PM »
No way we are making the playoffs.  Unless Davey pulls a Braveheart I'd be surprised to see .500.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #16: July 01, 2019, 09:22:40 PM »
Pretty sure Rusty said 15 wins per month, but whatever...

My prediction after looking at the remaining schedule: 

July - 12 wins, August - 13 wins, September 14 wins.  Add those 39 wins to their current 42, and you get 81 Wins / 81 Losses for the season.  No playoffs...

Sounds legit...
Such an optimist.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #17: July 01, 2019, 09:24:37 PM »
I'm already on record as saying they wont make the playoffs.

If Rizzo wanted to do that, he needed to fix the bullpen six weeks ago
Making the playoffs does not require beating out the Barves.  The division is practically gone.  90 wins typically is good enough to get a wild card slot, so 16 a month is still a good target even if we only hit a 14 win pace the first 3 months.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #18: July 01, 2019, 09:28:50 PM »
The sad thing is that this will be the thinking in July for the next 5 or 6 years
Making the playoffs does not require beating out the Barves.  The division is practically gone.  90 wins typically is good enough to get a wild card slot, so 16 a month is still a good target even if we only hit a 14 win pace the first 3 months.

Online varoadking

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #19: July 01, 2019, 09:33:57 PM »
The sad thing is that this will be the thinking in July for the next 5 or 6 years

It's the kind of thinking you get when Ownership no longer expects their team to win a WS, rather simply to be competitive every year...meaning "Sell Tickets Every Year." 

I think it's beginning to backfire...

Online varoadking

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #20: July 01, 2019, 09:34:16 PM »
Such an optimist.

That's just my nature...  ;)

Offline Scrapple

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #21: July 01, 2019, 10:24:14 PM »
If we can win 8 or 9 of the next 11 games against the “Marlins, Royals, Orioles”, and Phillies this season will get very interesting. Shake it up around here this is VERY DOABLE!!!!

 Let’s kick some ass!!!

 :whip: :whip: :whip:

HERE COME THE NATS!!!!


Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #22: July 01, 2019, 10:37:13 PM »
I find it amusing that the optimistic poster on here is a pig named Scrapple.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #23: July 02, 2019, 02:49:23 AM »
I can't imagine even our ownership telling Max & Stras that ownership isn't doing everything it can to win a WS

It's the kind of thinking you get when Ownership no longer expects their team to win a WS, rather simply to be competitive every year...meaning "Sell Tickets Every Year." 

I think it's beginning to backfire...

Online Slateman

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Re: 16 a month
« Reply #24: July 02, 2019, 06:25:24 AM »
Making the playoffs does not require beating out the Barves.  The division is practically gone.  90 wins typically is good enough to get a wild card slot, so 16 a month is still a good target even if we only hit a 14 win pace the first 3 months.
I don't think we can achieve that without a massive overhaul of the pen. Which should have already happened.

It seems pretty obvious that Rizzo can't go over the luxury tax threshold and won't part with his top prospects. So, in all likelihood, the Nationals season is done.