2019 MLB Draft Thread

[UMDNats]

Every pitching prospect and current pitcher is an arm injury risk

[NatsAllThe Way]

Giolito 2.0

[DPMOmaha]

Not good when multiple people are concerned about your arm action and you’re being compared to Kevin Appier and Joe Kelly

I'd be thrilled if he had a Kevin Appier-like career.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'd be thrilled if he had a Kevin Appier-like career.

Indeed.  I guess KC might as well be the moon for some folks, but Appier was quite good for more than a decade. 

[DPMOmaha]

Indeed.  I guess KC might as well be the moon for some folks, but Appier was quite good for more than a decade. 

Growing up in the home of the Royals AAA team, I saw him on his way up. He was pretty good, especially the first half of his career.

[bluestreak]

Indeed.  I guess KC might as well be the moon for some folks, but Appier was quite good for more than a decade.

I looked him up. You’re right, I was wrong.  He had like 52 WAR. I admit, I didn’t realize he was that good. And yes, if you were following NL baseball in the 90s, before explosion of internet and MLB network, etc, KC was kind of the moon.  Especially for a guy that made 1 All Star team.

But yeah, I’d be happy if he had Appier’s career.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

There are no sure things with pitchers especially.  This kid at least has a reasonable chance to become something very useful providing health.  Same can be true of quite a few prospects.  We really could use some young arms in the system to pan out to compliment Max/Stras/Corbin on the back-end and then eventually replace them as the aces. 

[Slateman]

Giolito 2.0

Is that supposed to be negative? Giolito is having a hell of a season so far.

[hotshot]

Every pitching prospect and current pitcher is an arm injury risk

Wonder WHY that is? My baseball "heyday" as a kid was from, say 1954-62. Only 16 ML teams (8 in each league), tons of starters going 9 innings regularly (or more, if needed). Could be there were more arm injuries than I recall; could be the pitchers (given the "science" of the day) continued to pitch while injured, throwing caution to the wind; or could be they tried to pitch to contact, the ball was deader, or who knows? But, whatever, you can't look at the stats below and not wonder why the big disparity wth today's pitchers (except for the few Max Scherzers of the game). Part of it HAS to be the money that is at play -- from both the pitcher's and the club's standpoints.

Take the pennant-winning 1954 Cleveland Indians staff and their starters (154 game season). Look especially at those Complete Game and Innings Pitched numbers! These guys didn't break down (except for Feller who was 36 years old in the 54 season).

1. Early Wynn  23-11, 20 CG, 270 IP, 2.73 ERA
2. Bob Lemon  23-7, 21 CG, 258 IP, 2.72 ERA
3. Mike Garcia  19-8, 13 CG, 258 IP, 2.64 ERA
4. Art Houtteman  15-7, 11 CG, 188 IP, 3.35 ERA
5. Bob Feller  13-3, 9 CG, 140 IP, 3.09 ERA

[Glockypoo]

Snagged 3B Drew Mendoza from FSU in the 3rd round. Ranked 55th on mlb.com

MLB.com's write-up:
In 2016, Mendoza was the 36th-best Draft prospect according to MLB Pipeline. He might have gone that high if not for his strong commitment to Florida State, but instead was taken in the 36th round by the Tigers. Three years later, the third baseman is available again with some excellent tools and a mixed resume with the Seminoles. Listed at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, Mendoza is a physical specimen. The left-handed hitter can really impact the ball with plus raw power and good leverage. He does draw a lot of walks, but there is also a good amount of swing and miss to his game, with some evaluators concerned about his ability to hit at the next level and get to that raw power consistently. His size limits him somewhat at the hot corner, but he does have the hands and arm to potentially stay there, while others think he might need to move to first. Mendoza's junior year has been enigmatic with a bit of a slow motor on the field. The raw power is legitimate, though, and the team that thinks it can get him to tap into it more consistently will take him in the early rounds, with some seeing a three true outcomes hitter like Russell Branyan in him.

[imref]

Snagged 3B Drew Mendoza from FSU in the 3rd round. Ranked 55th on mlb.com

MLB.com's write-up:
In 2016, Mendoza was the 36th-best Draft prospect according to MLB Pipeline. He might have gone that high if not for his strong commitment to Florida State, but instead was taken in the 36th round by the Tigers. Three years later, the third baseman is available again with some excellent tools and a mixed resume with the Seminoles. Listed at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, Mendoza is a physical specimen. The left-handed hitter can really impact the ball with plus raw power and good leverage. He does draw a lot of walks, but there is also a good amount of swing and miss to his game, with some evaluators concerned about his ability to hit at the next level and get to that raw power consistently. His size limits him somewhat at the hot corner, but he does have the hands and arm to potentially stay there, while others think he might need to move to first. Mendoza's junior year has been enigmatic with a bit of a slow motor on the field. The raw power is legitimate, though, and the team that thinks it can get him to tap into it more consistently will take him in the early rounds, with some seeing a three true outcomes hitter like Russell Branyan in him.

can he replace Rendon next year?

[Slateman]

can he replace Rendon next year?

We have Carter Kieboom

[bluestreak]

Wonder WHY that is? My baseball "heyday" as a kid was from, say 1954-62. Only 16 ML teams (8 in each league), tons of starters going 9 innings regularly (or more, if needed). Could be there were more arm injuries than I recall; could be the pitchers (given the "science" of the day) continued to pitch while injured, throwing caution to the wind; or could be they tried to pitch to contact, the ball was deader, or who knows? But, whatever, you can't look at the stats below and not wonder why the big disparity wth today's pitchers (except for the few Max Scherzers of the game). Part of it HAS to be the money that is at play -- from both the pitcher's and the club's standpoints.

Take the pennant-winning 1954 Cleveland Indians staff and their starters (154 game season). Look especially at those Complete Game and Innings Pitched numbers! These guys didn't break down (except for Feller who was 36 years old in the 54 season).

1. Early Wynn  23-11, 20 CG, 270 IP, 2.73 ERA
2. Bob Lemon  23-7, 21 CG, 258 IP, 2.72 ERA
3. Mike Garcia  19-8, 13 CG, 258 IP, 2.64 ERA
4. Art Houtteman  15-7, 11 CG, 188 IP, 3.35 ERA
5. Bob Feller  13-3, 9 CG, 140 IP, 3.09 ERA

How hard were those guys throwing? What velocity did they reach?

[Natsinpwc]

How hard were those guys throwing? What velocity did they reach?

Isn’t it likely wear and tear?  They probably weren’t pitching year round from the time they were 10. Not throwing breaking balls at a young age. Also I think lots of guys did break down.

[Elvir Ovcina]

How hard were those guys throwing? What velocity did they reach?

It's well-known that Feller was at or near 100, and he pitched over 3500 innings career before breaking down that season.

[bluestreak]

Isn’t it likely wear and tear?  They probably weren’t pitching year round from the time they were 10. Not throwing breaking balls at a young age. Also I think lots of guys did break down.

I think it's both. Early specialization as pitchers, year round throwing at a younger age and higher velocity, all of which put more wear on your arm.

[Natsinpwc]

I think it's both. Early specialization as pitchers, year round throwing at a younger age and higher velocity, all of which put more wear on your arm.

Makes sense.

[HalfSmokes]

Wonder WHY that is? My baseball "heyday" as a kid was from, say 1954-62. Only 16 ML teams (8 in each league), tons of starters going 9 innings regularly (or more, if needed). Could be there were more arm injuries than I recall; could be the pitchers (given the "science" of the day) continued to pitch while injured, throwing caution to the wind; or could be they tried to pitch to contact, the ball was deader, or who knows? But, whatever, you can't look at the stats below and not wonder why the big disparity wth today's pitchers (except for the few Max Scherzers of the game). Part of it HAS to be the money that is at play -- from both the pitcher's and the club's standpoints.

Take the pennant-winning 1954 Cleveland Indians staff and their starters (154 game season). Look especially at those Complete Game and Innings Pitched numbers! These guys didn't break down (except for Feller who was 36 years old in the 54 season).

1. Early Wynn  23-11, 20 CG, 270 IP, 2.73 ERA
2. Bob Lemon  23-7, 21 CG, 258 IP, 2.72 ERA
3. Mike Garcia  19-8, 13 CG, 258 IP, 2.64 ERA
4. Art Houtteman  15-7, 11 CG, 188 IP, 3.35 ERA
5. Bob Feller  13-3, 9 CG, 140 IP, 3.09 ERA

If you’re a team and you have the choice of a serviceable guy throwing to contract with a long career, or a succession of hard throwers with higher k rates that are less likely to make it through their arbitration years let alone to free agency intact, which do you choose?

[Glockypoo]

Took RP Matt Cronin 123rd overall in the 4th. Ranked 73rd on mlb.com.

Cronin has been a bullpen mainstay for Arkansas since his freshman year in 2017 and set a school record with 14 saves last year, when the Razorbacks finished runner-up at the College World Series. He'll likely be the first reliever drafted in 2019, perhaps as high as the second round by a team that places a lot of emphasis on analytics. There's nothing subtle about Cronin, who attacks hitters with two plus pitches that feature outstanding spin rates. His 92-96 mph fastball gets great carry in the strike zone, appearing to rise as it reaches the plate. His over-the-top arm slot helps him get nice depth on his curveball, which can be a true hammer in the mid 70s. Cronin has a lot of effort and some recoil in his delivery, so there's no thought of trying to deploy him as a starter. He battled the strike zone as a freshman before pounding it as a sophomore, but his control has regressed this spring. He projects as a setup man with perhaps a chance to close if he provides more strikes.

[UMDNats]

get him in the majors asap

[GNatsNoMore]

In the 5th round, the Nationals picked RHP Tyler Dyson from the University of Florida.

Here's the write up from MLB.com:

https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker
"For the last three years, a pitcher from the University of Florida has been selected in the first round. Lefty A.J. Puk went No. 6 overall in 2016, with Dane Dunning going at the end of the round. It was Alex Faedo's turn in 2017, while both Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar were taken in the opening round of the 2018 Draft. A strong spring could have vaulted Dyson into that realm of this year's Draft, but the right-hander has struggled, losing his spot in the Gators' rotation. Dyson still has plenty of power to go after hitters when he wants it. His fastball will touch 96-97 mph, and he consistently reaches the mid-90s. But a lack of life has meant it's gotten hit hard when he throws it for a strike. He has struggled to throw his slider, which had flashed plus in the past, for a strike, and he hasn't been able to develop a reliable third pitch, so college hitters have been sitting on the fastball. He has a tendency to not drive through the ball and can be too rotational, giving hitters too good of a look at the ball coming out of his hand. Because of his struggles, scouts have a hard time projecting Dyson as a starter at this point. If he can refine his fastball-slider combination, some see a ceiling as a setup type who can pitch the seventh or eighth inning, though a team taking him early in the Draft could send him out as a starter with the hopes of fixing what's ailed him this spring."

Alright, who's gonna say it:  "It sounds like he'd fit in perfectly with our current bullpen" [notwithstanding the last few games]. 

[imref]

Took RP Matt Cronin 123rd overall in the 4th. Ranked 73rd on mlb.com.

Cronin has been a bullpen mainstay for Arkansas since his freshman year in 2017 and set a school record with 14 saves last year, when the Razorbacks finished runner-up at the College World Series. He'll likely be the first reliever drafted in 2019, perhaps as high as the second round by a team that places a lot of emphasis on analytics. There's nothing subtle about Cronin, who attacks hitters with two plus pitches that feature outstanding spin rates. His 92-96 mph fastball gets great carry in the strike zone, appearing to rise as it reaches the plate. His over-the-top arm slot helps him get nice depth on his curveball, which can be a true hammer in the mid 70s. Cronin has a lot of effort and some recoil in his delivery, so there's no thought of trying to deploy him as a starter. He battled the strike zone as a freshman before pounding it as a sophomore, but his control has regressed this spring. He projects as a setup man with perhaps a chance to close if he provides more strikes.

was that the Harper pick?

[hotshot]

It's well-known that Feller was at or near 100, and he pitched over 3500 innings career before breaking down that season.

Yeah, Feller was the original flamethrower when he first came up and was young. Wynn, Lemon and Garcia were all hard throwers too. All pitched for MANY years.  Don't know about Houtteman.

If pitching year-round from age 10 is the problem, you'd think the bright minds out there would take steps to remedy that.

As a laugh, true story that Feller, from Van Meter, Iowa learned to pitch in the '30s by throwing at a bullseye painted on the family barn. The velocity was in his genes I guess.

[HalfSmokes]

Yeah, Feller was the original flamethrower when he first came up and was young. Wynn, Lemon and Garcia were all hard throwers too. All pitched for MANY years.  Don't know about Houtteman.

If pitching year-round from age 10 is the problem, you'd think the bright minds out there would take steps to remedy that.

As a laugh, true story that Feller, from Van Meter, Iowa learned to pitch in the '30s by throwing at a bullseye painted on the family barn. The velocity was in his genes I guess.

Why does a high school or college coach care about the longevity of a player’s professional career?

[bluestreak]

If you’re a team and you have the choice of a serviceable guy throwing to contract with a long career, or a succession of hard throwers with higher k rates that are less likely to make it through their arbitration years let alone to free agency intact, which do you choose?

There are two hall of famers on that staff. I am not sure it's representative of baseball as a whole back then.