The NL East is much-improved. The Phillies obviously improved their lineup, although their pitching is still very questionable. The Braves are counting heavily on a slew of talented but young and unproven starting pitchers. I actually think they could revert back to 4th. The Mets lineup is improved with Alonso, Cano, and McNeil added to the mix, and if they keep DeGrom, Thor, and Wheeler healthy...with a strong backend to the bullpen...they are a real threat.
The Marlins even have a nice stable of 4 young starting pitchers that look very promising. They have a terrible lineup, but they aren't going to be easy to pile runs on.
Right now Atlanta is 3rd in starters ERA in the NL.
In the NL East they are 1st in team ERA, 1st in starters ERA, 2nd in bullpen ERA, 1st in BAa, 1st in quality starts.
This is despite the opening series against Philly.
Their best 2 starters, Folty and Soroka aren't even with the team yet. Soroka went perfect through 5 innings, 49 pitches, in his AAA rehab start. Fried is poised to have a break out year, in his 1st start he was perfect through 5.2, has a 0.00 ERA and 3 BBs through 2 starts. Their bullpen is a question mark, lots of young pitchers, but they have Minter and Vizcaino to choose between at closer.
And the middle of their line up is Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman, and Acuna...right now Swanson, who was their 8th hitter, moved up to 6, has 4 HRs and 15 RBIs. While they have Johan Camargo on the bench who can back up every position...a switch hitter with a career .790 OPS who hit 19 HRs last year in less than 500 ABs.
I wouldn't count on them finishing 4th.
The Mets rotation is scary, they have the best pitching....but they are the Mets, so its hard to take them seriously.
Sure the Phillies have a good line up, but they have no pitching, behind Nola/Arietta they've got nobody, no depth, no closer, an alright bullpen on paper but a horrible manager.
The division is between us and the braves.