Author Topic: NL East (2019)  (Read 25384 times)

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Offline rileyn

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #825: August 26, 2019, 06:47:21 AM »
I didn't see any tough talk tweets from Pete Alonzo this weekend as he did after they came back to beat us in game 1 a couple weeks ago.  Syndergaard nicely trolled the Indians, but his twitter also seems quiet now.  Did Michael Conforto keep his shirt on?  Did Todd Frazier pimp any home runs?  Stroman?  You out there?

As much as I dislike the Braves, the Mets have been so full of themselves in the last month, it was nice to see the get shut up.

Offline spidernat

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #826: August 26, 2019, 09:00:45 AM »
talking crap because another team (the braves at that) did what the Nats failed to do :lmao:

Online Slateman

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #827: August 26, 2019, 09:07:28 AM »
Just makes  the Nationals more embarrassing. They roll over like naged when facing the Mets or Braves. All they can do is feast on bad teams.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #828: August 26, 2019, 09:31:42 AM »
Braves has to travel last night to Denver for a one game make up series against the Rockies. Then to Toronto for two games. Imagine what FP would say.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #829: August 26, 2019, 09:51:30 AM »
Just makes  the Nationals more embarrassing. They roll over like naged when facing the Mets or Braves. All they can do is feast on bad teams.

You're embarrassing.  The Cubs are a bad team?  How were they 41-19 in Wrigley? 

Offline djbaseball13

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #830: August 26, 2019, 12:59:21 PM »
You're embarrassing.  The Cubs are a bad team?  How were they 41-19 in Wrigley?

And, we should have swept a decent Brewers team too!  In baseball, you win 1/3, and you lose 1/3. It's the other third that make the difference. And, we are playing .667 ball since we hit rock bottom May 24.

Offline DCsOwn

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #831: August 26, 2019, 01:13:37 PM »
Just makes  the Nationals more embarrassing. They roll over like naged when facing the Mets or Braves. All they can do is feast on bad teams.

Just here to point out that if Doolittle doesn't implode they take two of three from the Mets in the last series pretty comfortably, a series in which neither Strasburg or Scherzer pitched in (Scherzer hasn't pitched in the last two series against the Mets btw). Also just want to point out that Scherzer hasn't pitched against the Braves all season iirc, and the last time we faced them, we pitched our 3rd, 4th, and 7th best pitchers against their top three (assuming you don't view Folty as one of their top 3 pitchers) and were a Trevor Rosenthal implosion away from taking 2 of 3 from them as well. If you throw the Dodgers series in there as well, we faced their top 3 again in a series without Scherzer or Corbin starting (we even used an Opener in a game in that one), and were a 8th inning rally away from taking 2 of 3 there.

Point is, assuming health, none of those series have any predictive value in terms of determining how we'll do matched up with any of those teams. If you look at what we have from a talent perspective versus what any of those teams have, we match up well with any of them.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #832: August 26, 2019, 01:26:45 PM »
I don’t know why we bother arguing about which team is better. You are what your record says you are. If the Nationals think they are better than the Braves then they have to beat them and pass them in the standings. Same with the Mets and the Phillies.

Offline tenken627

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #833: August 26, 2019, 01:58:36 PM »
I don’t know why we bother arguing about which team is better. You are what your record says you are. If the nationals think they are better than the Braves then they have to beat them and pass them in the standings. Same with the Mets and the Phillies.

It's true that you are what your record is. And right now that says the Nats are looking up to the Braves by 6 games.

We can argue about how and why the Nationals lost real games, but underlying statistics show that the Nats are a better team than what their record is.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

NL East Actual Win Percentage (W-L):

Atlanta Braves .606 (80 - 52)
Washington Nationals .562 (73 - 57)
Philadelphia Phillies .519 (67 - 62)
New York Mets .515 (67 - 63)
Miami Marlins .364 (47 - 82)

NL East 1st Order Win Percentage (W-L):
1st Order Winning Percentage uses Pythagenpat method based on actual runs scored and runs allowed to determine how often a team "should have" won based on their run differential

Washington Nationals .580 (75.4 - 54.6)
Atlanta Braves .557 (73.5 - 58.5)
New York Mets .516 (67.0 - 63.0)
Philadelphia Phillies .487 (62.8 - 66.2)
Miami Marlins .375 (48.3 - 80.7)

NL East 2nd Order Win Percentage (W-L):
2nd Order Winning Percentage substitutes projected runs scored for actual runs scored. This calculates, based on a team's underlying stats, how many runs they "should have" scored and uses that in the Pythagenpat method.

Washington Nationals .585 (76.1 - 53.9)
Atlanta Braves .544 (71.8 - 60.2)
New York Mets .526 (68.4 - 61.6)
Philadelphia Phillies .446 (57.6 - 71.4)
Miami Marlins .361 (46.5 - 82.5)

NL East 3rd Order Win Percentage (W-L)
3rd Order Winning Percentage: A team's projected winning percentage, based on underlying statistics and adjusted for quality of opponents.

Washington Nationals .572 (74.3 - 55.7)
Atlanta Braves .536 (70.7 - 61.3)
New York Mets .523 (67.9 - 62.1)
Philadelphia Phillies .446 (57.5 - 71.5)
Miami Marlins .376 (48.5 - 80.5)

Offline elbuffalo

  • Posts: 12
Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #834: August 26, 2019, 02:08:12 PM »
It's true that you are what your record is. And right now that says the Nats are looking up to the Braves by 6 games.

We can argue about how and why the Nationals lost real games, but underlying statistics show that the Nats are a better team than what their record is.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

NL East Actual Win Percentage (W-L):

Atlanta Braves .606 (80 - 52)
Washington Nationals .562 (73 - 57)
Philadelphia Phillies .519 (67 - 62)
New York Mets .515 (67 - 63)
Miami Marlins .364 (47 - 82)

NL East 1st Order Win Percentage (W-L):
1st Order Winning Percentage uses Pythagenpat method based on actual runs scored and runs allowed to determine how often a team "should have" won based on their run differential

Washington Nationals .580 (75.4 - 54.6)
Atlanta Braves .557 (73.5 - 58.5)
New York Mets .516 (67.0 - 63.0)
Philadelphia Phillies .487 (62.8 - 66.2)
Miami Marlins .375 (48.3 - 80.7)

NL East 2nd Order Win Percentage (W-L):
2nd Order Winning Percentage substitutes projected runs scored for actual runs scored. This calculates, based on a team's underlying stats, how many runs they "should have" scored and uses that in the Pythagenpat method.

Washington Nationals .585 (76.1 - 53.9)
Atlanta Braves .544 (71.8 - 60.2)
New York Mets .526 (68.4 - 61.6)
Philadelphia Phillies .446 (57.6 - 71.4)
Miami Marlins .361 (46.5 - 82.5)

NL East 3rd Order Win Percentage (W-L)
3rd Order Winning Percentage: A team's projected winning percentage, based on underlying statistics and adjusted for quality of opponents.

Washington Nationals .572 (74.3 - 55.7)
Atlanta Braves .536 (70.7 - 61.3)
New York Mets .523 (67.9 - 62.1)
Philadelphia Phillies .446 (57.5 - 71.5)
Miami Marlins .376 (48.5 - 80.5)

Eh you can cherry pick stats any way ou want to support any narrative. Schoenfield on ESPN pointed out that a large reason why the Braves run differential isn't more impressive than it is has a lot to do with the terrible performances they were getting from their 4th and 5th starters in the 1st half that were being filled by rookies or injured (Folty) or a guy who was waived (Gausman). It's a credit to them that they were winning a reasonable number of those guys due to offense. You can say the Nats have really punished bad teams, ballooning their run differential. Reasonable analysis says the Nats are clearly the 3rd best team in the NL and have separated themselves from the WC teams who don't pose as a threat to catch the Nats.

Offline tenken627

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #835: August 26, 2019, 02:14:55 PM »
Eh you can cherry pick stats any way ou want to support any narrative. Schoenfield on ESPN pointed out that a large reason why the Braves run differential isn't more impressive than it is has a lot to do with the terrible performances they were getting from their 4th and 5th starters in the 1st half that were being filled by rookies or injured (Folty) or a guy who was waived (Gausman). It's a credit to them that they were winning a reasonable number of those guys due to offense. You can say the Nats have really punished bad teams, ballooning their run differential. Reasonable analysis says the Nats are clearly the 3rd best team in the NL and have separated themselves from the WC teams who don't pose as a threat to catch the Nats.

Which is why I thought the 3rd Order Win Percentage stat was interesting, since it takes into account quality of opponents. And what you just stated with the Braves having to deal with terrible performances from their 4th and 5th starters in the 1st half is like the ultimate cherry pick.

Thats like pointing out if the Nats bullpen wasn't so historically bad in the 1st half of the season, they would be the '39 Yankees or something.

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #836: August 26, 2019, 02:31:39 PM »
I don’t know why we bother arguing about which team is better. You are what your record says you are. If the nationals think they are better than the Braves then they have to beat them and pass them in the standings. Same with the Mets and the Phillies.

God help me. I agree with all of this.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #837: August 26, 2019, 02:43:51 PM »
But since teams evolve throughout the season, that's like saying the team improvements don't matter.  It will come down to who performs the best in the playoffs instead of which team has the best record.

I don’t know why we bother arguing about which team is better. You are what your record says you are. If the nationals think they are better than the Braves then they have to beat them and pass them in the standings. Same with the Mets and the Phillies.

Offline tenken627

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #838: August 26, 2019, 02:50:28 PM »
And plus. The 6 games back is a little misleading. If the Braves lose tonight in their makeup game at Colorado (but it seems like they never lose), the Nats will only be 4 back in the Loss column with 3 games in hand. The Nats would have to keep winning as well.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #839: August 26, 2019, 03:05:39 PM »
If we can avoid losing to the lowly O's or Marlins, we'll extend this 5-game winning streak to 10.  Unfortunately the Braves have the 1 in Colorado then 7 against the lowly Jays and White Sox before the series with us.  Going to be hard to gain uch ground before playing them again.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #840: August 26, 2019, 03:06:55 PM »
If we can avoid losing to the lowly O's or Marlins, we'll extend this 5-game winning streak to 10.  Unfortunately the Braves have the 1 in Colorado then 7 against the lowly Jays and White Sox before the series with us.  Going to be hard to gain uch ground before playing them again.

"...but their travel schedule is brutal..."
FP

Offline tenken627

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #841: August 26, 2019, 03:20:59 PM »
Pleasant surprise. The Braves Rockies game is on now available on youtube


Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #842: August 26, 2019, 03:25:30 PM »
Pleasant surprise. The Braves Rockies game is on now available on youtube
Cool!

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #843: August 26, 2019, 03:29:04 PM »
Rockies pitching a guy who pitched for the Long Island Ducks earlier this year.  smh.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #844: August 26, 2019, 03:31:07 PM »
But since teams evolve throughout the season, that's like saying the team improvements don't matter.  It will come down to who performs the best in the playoffs instead of which team has the best record.


I wasn't talking about playoff success. I was talking about the best regular season teams going into the playoffs. The 162 game season is a good sample size. No excuses.

Playoff success has a lot to do with injuries, momentum, matchups, bad umpiring, lucky bounces, etc.

This is why the MLB postseason is so much fun. It's a roll of the dice, really. Anyone who says the WC is not worth it because you will just get beat by the higher seed has not been paying attention.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #845: August 26, 2019, 03:33:11 PM »
BTW, all the games are free tomorrow on MLB.TV.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #846: August 26, 2019, 04:15:50 PM »
Freeman thrown out at the plate by Ian. Still 0-0.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #847: August 26, 2019, 04:53:52 PM »
"...but their travel schedule is brutal..."
FP

I'd rather play the Blue Jays on no sleep off a flight from Australia than play a .500 team at home.  They're that bad. 

Offline bluestreak

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #848: August 26, 2019, 05:13:06 PM »
The announcers in this YouTube broadcast are cover-your-ears awful.

Online Slateman

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Re: NL East (2019)
« Reply #849: August 26, 2019, 05:16:22 PM »
The announcers in this YouTube broadcast are cover-your-ears awful.
Get what you pay for?