I could be wrong, but I don’t think 500 homers is automatic entry anymore. The Home Run environment is changing which devalues them and the electorate will be entire analytics based in 20 years when he’s eligible for election.
I don’t think 24 homers per year will cut it unless he gets on base around the same rate he has over the past couple of years. Especially if he isn’t fielding.
I could be wrong though.
It isn't devalued any more than in the steroid era. Who else has 500 and isn't getting in?
Sheffield
Ortiz
Manny Ramirez
Rafael Palmeiro
Mark McGwire
Sammy Sosa
ALbert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Barry Bonds
Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, and Sheffield are tainted by PEDs.
Pujols is still active
A-Rod and Ortiz aren't eligible yet, but I can't see either not getting in on the first ballot.
So that leaves Manny Ramirez, who has a PED suspension.
Honestly, if Harper stays "clean" and doesn't develop a bad relationship with the press, 500 home runs should get him into the hall of fame. I don't think analytics is going to change that. It's more likely to give someone like Rendon or Aldrenton Simmons a better shot at the HoF, and help pitchers who will never sniff 300 wins. But even with the recent surge in power, 500 home runs is still going to be a big mark.