Author Topic: Is Harper on Pace For HOF  (Read 1405 times)

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Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #25: March 05, 2019, 12:30:22 PM »
It seems like for many while his statistics per year are not overwhelming and not what would be expected of a Hall-of-Famer, because he started so young and at this time is expected to play until he's 39 years old the statistics he accumulates over that many years will add up to be in line with what other HOFers have. His average may be lower but the home runs and RBIs will compare favorably. Is this fair to put a guy in because he plays so long. A good comparison is Cal Ripkin. He played 20 seasons. Here are his average stats per season:

Average - .276
Home Runs - 84
RBI - 84

To me not HOF numbers. He was a good fielder, not great. I guess longevity and popularity work.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #26: March 05, 2019, 12:40:48 PM »
It seems like for many while his statistics per year are not overwhelming and not what would be expected of a Hall-of-Famer, because he started so young and at this time is expected to play until he's 39 years old the statistics he accumulates over that many years will add up to be in line with what other HOFers have. His average may be lower but the home runs and RBIs will compare favorably. Is this fair to put a guy in because he plays so long. A good comparison is Cal Ripkin. He played 20 seasons. Here are his average stats per season:

Average - .276
Home Runs - 84
RBI - 84

To me not HOF numbers. He was a good fielder, not great. I guess longevity and popularity work.

This is a hot take if I ever heard one. Cal Ripken is an inner circle Hall of Famer and arguably the best Shortstop of all time.  Look at how he compares.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_SS.shtml

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #27: March 05, 2019, 12:45:11 PM »
uh cal ripken is in the HOF for more reasons than being popular and playing a lot

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #28: March 05, 2019, 12:47:57 PM »
It seems like for many while his statistics per year are not overwhelming and not what would be expected of a Hall-of-Famer, because he started so young and at this time is expected to play until he's 39 years old the statistics he accumulates over that many years will add up to be in line with what other HOFers have. His average may be lower but the home runs and RBIs will compare favorably. Is this fair to put a guy in because he plays so long. A good comparison is Cal Ripkin. He played 20 seasons. Here are his average stats per season:

Average - .276
Home Runs - 84
RBI - 84

To me not HOF numbers. He was a good fielder, not great. I guess longevity and popularity work.
84 home runs is really good.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #29: March 05, 2019, 01:07:37 PM »
This is a hot take if I ever heard one. Cal Ripken is an inner circle Hall of Famer and arguably the best Shortstop of all time.  Look at how he compares.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_SS.shtml

Once Harper challenges Cal’s streak he’ll be a shoe in too

Online Slateman

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #30: March 05, 2019, 08:44:59 PM »
I could be wrong, but I don’t think 500 homers is automatic entry anymore. The Home Run environment is changing which devalues them and the electorate will be entire analytics based in 20 years when he’s eligible for election.
I don’t think 24 homers per year will cut it unless he gets on base around the same rate he has over the past couple of years. Especially if he isn’t fielding.

I could be wrong though.


It isn't devalued any more than in the steroid era. Who else has 500 and isn't getting in?

Sheffield
Ortiz
Manny Ramirez
Rafael Palmeiro
Mark McGwire
Sammy Sosa
ALbert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Barry Bonds

Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, and Sheffield are tainted by PEDs.
Pujols is still active
A-Rod and Ortiz aren't eligible yet, but I can't see either not getting in on the first ballot.

So that leaves Manny Ramirez, who has a PED suspension.

Honestly, if Harper stays "clean" and doesn't develop a bad relationship with the press, 500 home runs should get him into the hall of fame. I don't think analytics is going to change that. It's more likely to give someone like Rendon or Aldrenton Simmons a better shot at the HoF, and help pitchers who will never sniff 300 wins. But even with the recent surge in power, 500 home runs is still going to be a big mark.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #31: March 05, 2019, 09:22:37 PM »
Like I said, I’m not sure. But 20 years is a long time. But I don’t feel that that 25 HR per year will get it done without other accomplishments. But if he adds getting on base like he has, he’s in, if the OBP drops, maybe not. I feel that Votto for instance is borderline. If he had power, he’d be a shoo in. That would be Bryce.   But I don’t know. 

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #32: March 06, 2019, 08:30:43 PM »
It seems like for many while his statistics per year are not overwhelming and not what would be expected of a Hall-of-Famer, because he started so young and at this time is expected to play until he's 39 years old the statistics he accumulates over that many years will add up to be in line with what other HOFers have. His average may be lower but the home runs and RBIs will compare favorably. Is this fair to put a guy in because he plays so long. A good comparison is Cal Ripkin. He played 20 seasons. Here are his average stats per season:

Average - .276
Home Runs - 84
RBI - 84

To me not HOF numbers. He was a good fielder, not great. I guess longevity and popularity work.

The home runs should say 21 a year. 431 Total.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #33: March 06, 2019, 08:34:23 PM »
uh cal ripken is in the HOF for more reasons than being popular and playing a lot

I have nothing against Ripkin, I enjoyed watching him play. But he averaged .276, with 21 home runs and 84 RBI per year. What are the reasons he's in the HOF?

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #34: March 06, 2019, 08:38:01 PM »
I have nothing against Ripkin, I enjoyed watching him play. But he averaged .276, with 21 home runs and 84 RBI per year. What are the reasons he's in the HOF?

I seem to remember some sort of streak

Offline imref

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #35: March 06, 2019, 08:50:42 PM »
I have nothing against Ripkin, I enjoyed watching him play. But he averaged .276, with 21 home runs and 84 RBI per year. What are the reasons he's in the HOF?

please tell me this is a Slateman alt account because this has to be a troll attempt.

- 19 time all star
- 8 silver slugger awards
- 3,184 hits
- 431 home runs
- two time MVP
- two gold gloves
- third best Shortstop of all time in terms of WAR and JAWS.

Why are we even having this conversation?

Online varoadking

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #36: March 06, 2019, 08:56:16 PM »
please tell me this is a Slateman alt account because this has to be a troll attempt.
- third best Shortstop of all time in terms of WAR and JAWS.

You sure about that...he played more than 5 seasons at 3rd base...

BTW - not disputing he is HoF worthy...

Offline imref

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #37: March 06, 2019, 09:01:06 PM »
You sure about that...he played more than 5 seasons at 3rd base...

BTW - not disputing he is HoF worthy...

I was going by this:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_SS.shtml

He played 2,302 at SS, 675 at 3B (and 25 at DH).  It looks like they lump his SS and 3B games together as the WAR, WAR7, and JAWS stats are just based on offense.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #38: March 06, 2019, 09:14:44 PM »
Cal Ripken truthers? Now I’ve heard everything.

Offline imref

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #39: March 06, 2019, 09:16:31 PM »
Cal Ripken truthers? Now I’ve heard everything.

:hysterical:

Online varoadking

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #40: March 06, 2019, 09:16:42 PM »
I was going by this:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_SS.shtml

He played 2,302 at SS, 675 at 3B (and 25 at DH).  It looks like they lump his SS and 3B games together as the WAR, WAR7, and JAWS stats are just based on offense.

Yeah...they lump his 3rd base time over his 21 year career as being all SS years...

He'd likely still easily be top 10 as a SS over those 15 or so years...

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #41: March 06, 2019, 10:58:52 PM »
Cal Ripken is in the conversation as the best SS of all time.  Especially if you consider that ARod played so many games at 3b.

96 WAR....no one who knows anything about baseball questions Ripken’s bona fides.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #42: March 06, 2019, 11:16:35 PM »
Wait until this dude finds out Nolan Ryan had 292 losses.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #43: March 07, 2019, 12:31:41 PM »
My point is Ripkens year-by-year stats are okay but far from great. If you play 20 full seasons as he did the statistics pile up and get you into the HOF. All star games and HOF inductions are often done more on popularity than merit. All star games especially.
If you want to induct a guy into the HOF because he played a long time and was fairly consistent okay. I think only the great should get in. Here are some examples of his career:

He hit over .300 5 times. He hit .270 or under 11 times.
He only hit as many as 30 home runs 1 year.
In 20 years playing he got 100 RBIs 4 times.
His monster year was 1991 when he hit 34 homers, 114 RBI and hit .323.
Ripkens statistics per year are not much different from 10 time golden glove winner Andruw Jones.

Don't let the hype get into the way of the facts. I suspect Harper will have much the same career.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #44: March 07, 2019, 12:36:36 PM »
Position matters for HoF; Ripken was one of the best offensive short stops of his generation.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #45: March 07, 2019, 12:50:48 PM »
how many shortstops were even hitting for an OPS over 700 in the 80s and early 90s

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #46: March 07, 2019, 12:53:11 PM »
Ripken basically redefined the position of shortstop. He was the one who ushered in the likes of the Lindors and Seager we see today. Or even the ARods and the Jeters.

Offline imref

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #47: March 07, 2019, 01:27:07 PM »
Ripken basically redefined the position of shortstop. He was the one who ushered in the likes of the Lindors and Seager we see today. Or even the ARods and the Jeters.


yeah, Ripken was good, probably deserves to be in the HoF more than Ruth.

 :D

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #48: March 07, 2019, 06:47:59 PM »
My original point was if the first seven years of Harpers career are like the rest of his career they have been mostly average except for one monster year. Because he started young and will probably play 20 years the stats will pile up and get him into the HOF. Hype and perception will lead one to believe he was great year-in and year-out when that's not the case.
An example of that exact thing is Cal Ripken. The statistics back that up. If that's what you want to judge a HOFer to be okay.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #49: March 07, 2019, 06:52:07 PM »
My original point was if the first seven years of Harpers career are like the rest of his career they have been mostly average except for one monster year. Because he started young and will probably play 20 years the stats will pile up and get him into the HOF. Hype and perception will lead one to believe he was great year-in and year-out when that's not the case.
An example of that exact thing is Cal Ripken. The statistics back that up. If that's what you want to judge a HOFer to be okay.

Execpt the statistics only back up what you’re saying if you think Ripken was a left fielder, otherwise they don’t