Bryce: All things considered, I'd Rather be in Philadelphia

[imref]

You forgot the hair.

add OBP and OPS into that and he looks a lot better.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Obviously random but the ones he didn’t play weren’t random.

There wasn’t a huge difference in the winning percentages. Not to mention countless other variables that were not controlled.

This conversation reminds of why I retired.

What other variables are there that actually matter and you'd expect to be different between the games Harper played and the ones he didn't?  I can think of really only one - lefty starter.   And that's not difficult to control for if one wants. 

And as to the difference, well - .558 is a 90-win pace.  .580 is 94.   That's a difference that matters, and in the exact opposite direction you'd expect if you assume Harper is really, really good.  Indeed, if you assume Harper is a 4-ish WAR player, it's literally the exact opposite in size.

I don't like going all stat nerd on people except when they make assertions about statistics that just don't make any sense.   I'll stop now.  To be clear,  I don't really buy into that stat for some of the reasons we've both mentioned.  I just find it a bit interesting.

[imref]

And the Nationals’ reported 10-year, $300 million offer made to Harper before the end of the regular season? It included so much deferred money (it would have paid Harper through the year 2053) that its present-day value wasn’t in the same ballpark as the other offers. $184 million, according to Verducci, or $240 million, per the Post’s Neil Greenberg. The math on deferred contracts is tricky, but since the former figure is coming via Boras and the latter via the Nats, you should feel safe pegging the true value as somewhere in between.

https://deadspin.com/these-were-bryce-harpers-other-offers-1832983665

[Natsinpwc]

What other variables are there that actually matter and you'd expect to be different between the games Harper played and the ones he didn't?  I can think of really only one - lefty starter.   And that's not difficult to control for if one wants. 

And as to the difference, well - .558 is a 90-win pace.  .580 is 94.   That's a difference that matters, and in the exact opposite direction you'd expect if you assume Harper is really, really good.  Indeed, if you assume Harper is a 4-ish WAR player, it's literally the exact opposite in size.

I don't like going all stat nerd on people except when they make assertions about statistics that just don't make any sense.   I'll stop now.  To be clear,  I don't really buy into that stat for some of the reasons we've both mentioned.  I just find it a bit interesting.

I should have paid more attention during those grad level stats classes. 90 wins pace seem good to me.

[imref]

I should have paid more attention during those grad level stats classes. 90 wins pace seem good to me.

The FanGraphs articles had Harper pegged at around a 4 win improvement over the guy they had pencilled in to play RF.  They have the Nats still as the favorite to win the division.  The Phillies glaring weakness is their starting rotation, it wouldn't be surprising to see them sign Keuchel before all is said and done.

[Senatorswin]

Does this sound like one of the best players in the game after 7 seasons:

Average - .270, .274, .273, .330, .243, .319, .249
Home runs - 22, 20, 13, 42, 24, 29, 34
RBI - 59, 58, 32, 99, 86, 87, 100

Lets compare with this guys 7 years:
Average - .309, .304, .304, .319, .275, .221, .260
Home Runs - 32, 40, 40, 46, 33, 6, 25
RBI - 90, 113, 113, .144, .102, 42, 91

The first of course is Harper. The second is Vinny Castiila. Take away the hype and what have you got.

[Natsinpwc]

The FanGraphs articles had Harper pegged at around a 4 win improvement over the guy they had pencilled in to play RF.  They have the Nats still as the favorite to win the division.  The Phillies glaring weakness is their starting rotation, it wouldn't be surprising to see them sign Keuchel before all is said and done.

Yes. That is their weakness. Funny because that was what carried them early last year.

[imref]

Lets compare with this guys 7 years:
Average - .309, .304, .304, .319, .275, .221, .260
Home Runs - 32, 40, 40, 46, 33, 6, 25
RBI - 90, 113, 113, .144, .102, 42, 91

The first of course is Harper. The second is Vinny Castiila. Take away the hype and what have you got.

Harper is over 50 points better in OBP than that Castilla in those seven years: .388 versus .335

[Elvir Ovcina]

Harper is over 50 points better in OBP than that Castilla in those seven years: .388 versus .335

And wasn't producing those numbers in pre-humidor Coors.

[Senatorswin]

Harper is over 50 points better in OBP than that Castilla in those seven years: .388 versus .335

So he walked more while Vinny trotted around the bases more.

[bluestreak]

https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/1101257446356631557?s=21

[Duke of Earl]

https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/1101257446356631557?s=21

As I recall, Chuck Todd is (or was) a Braves fan.  So that message may have been a prediction that the Braves will still win the East.

[imref]

nightingale says the Phillies have already sold 100k tickets since the Harper news broke.  I wonder how many of those are for a bus trip to Nationals Park.

[bluestreak]

https://twitter.com/councilofdc/status/1101220389089357825?s=21

[Slateman]

Mike Morse died for this

[Slateman]

nightingale says the Phillies have already sold 100k, tickets since the Harper news broke.  I wonder how many of those are for a bus trip to Nationals Park.

I'm thinking about getting tickets to April 2nd

[The Chief]

https://deadspin.com/these-were-bryce-harpers-other-offers-1832983665

 

[Copecwby20]

I hear Fresno is beautiful in the spring.

I was born, grew up, and went to college in Fresno. No it's not.


Unless you like crack heads and drive bys.

[Natsinpwc]

I was born, grew up, and went to college in Fresno. No it's not.


Unless you like crack heads and drive bys.

I forgot the sarcasm font.

There was a kid from our neighborhood in VA that my son played basketball against and ended up playing basketball there with Paul George. I always wondered how he ended up there.

[Duke of Earl]

"Aye come join!" Harper wrote to Bell in an Instagram direct message. "Let's take this city by storm. Bring as many titles as we can to the greatest city in the world. Brotherly Love.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2823062-leveon-bell-shares-bryce-harper-recruiting-him-to-eagles-in-instagram-story

I hate this freaking jerk so much I can't stand it.  Less than a day a Philly and it's the greatest city in the world. After seven years professing love for DC. freak HIM.

[UMDNats]

The funniest thing to me is Phillies fans have spent almost 10 years bashing Harper non-stop and now he's Their Son.

The perfect marriage. Truly.

[varoadking]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2823062-leveon-bell-shares-bryce-harper-recruiting-him-to-eagles-in-instagram-story

I hate this freaking jerk so much I can't stand it.  Less than a day a Philly and it's the greatest city in the world. After seven years professing love for DC. freak HIM.

Aside from the money, I actually feel sorry for him...he's not a well adjusted individual.  You saw how over the top he went over a completely meaningless homerun derby.  It's always about Royce.  But...he's got the money...

He was already dead to me, so this doesn't really move the needle...

[The Chief]

He was already dead to me, so this doesn't really move the needle...

Exactly.

[Natsinpwc]

Aside from the money, I actually feel sorry for him...he's not a well adjusted individual.  You saw how over the top he went over a completely meaningless homerun derby.  It's always about Royce.  But...he's got the money...

He was already dead to me, so this doesn't really move the needle...

Much like Lebron--worshipped since being a kid.  Lebron has found off the court pursuits so maybe Bryce will too.  I mean other than the Vegas Knights.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Much like Lebron--worshipped since being a kid.  Lebron has found off the court pursuits so maybe Bryce will too.  I mean other than the Vegas Knights.

the big difference with LeBron is, arguably, he's in the discussion for the best player in his sport all time, along with maybe two or three others (Jordan, and I'd consider arguments for Kareen, Magic, and Oscar).  Bryce is at best an unlikely member of the top 3 outfielders of his era (Trout, Betts, then we argue).