Author Topic: The Weather (2019)  (Read 10198 times)

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Offline DCFan

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #425: August 29, 2019, 11:45:46 AM »
It's not likely to hit before Monday...

Ok, I had heard this weekend.

Offline varoadking

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #426: August 29, 2019, 11:46:33 AM »
Ok, I had heard this weekend.

I should clarify...hit Florida...

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #427: August 29, 2019, 11:51:14 AM »
Andrew pretty much cured me of any need to experience extreme weather firsthand.  Be safe Florida, you have enough to worry about with Florida Man. 

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #428: August 29, 2019, 11:56:55 AM »
The latest GFS model shows it hitting around Port St. Lucie then turning northward toward Georgia/SC before heading out to sea.  Still way too early to know exact track.  It is strengthening quicker than models projected as it has slowed down a bit.  That seems to be a common occurrence with Atlantic hurricanes as of late.  There is also a small chance it stalls out off the FL coast.  But for now, Pensacola looks fine.

You can view the models here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/. HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF (The Euro model) are the big three to watch.

latest runs:


Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #429: August 29, 2019, 01:24:32 PM »
uh, the latest UK Met model takes the storm across Florida and into Pensacola.  That model has been the best so far at predicting Dorian:

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1167122216074567680?s=20

GFS stalls it for about 48 hours over the upper eastern half of FL.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #430: August 29, 2019, 02:18:46 PM »
uh, the latest UK Met model takes the storm across Florida and into Pensacola.  That model has been the best so far at predicting Dorian:

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1167122216074567680?s=20

GFS stalls it for about 48 hours over the upper eastern half of FL.

:shock: I better bring my diet code on the road with me! Sooo glad I decided to fill up right before I got here Tuesday, but now I’m thinking I’m going to be trapped on the peninsula with everyone escaping when I will just want to get home :panic:
 

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #431: August 29, 2019, 02:47:00 PM »
latest Euro has it hugging the east coast of FL into Georgia over about 3 days.  Models are all over the place right now.  By tomorrow night / Saturday morning we should have a better idea of where it's going.  The one thing they seem to be in agreement with is that it will be a big storm, at or near Cat-4 strength by Sunday/Monday.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #432: August 30, 2019, 10:42:37 AM »
Quote
Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
·
27m
Hurricane #Dorian has developed an eye
Expecting it to become a major hurricane today.

Nothing currently stopping storm from reaching Category 5.  There I said it.

NHC 11 AM update doesn't change much, still looking a max of 140 MPH winds, and still showing very slow movement across FL:


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #433: August 30, 2019, 11:29:27 AM »
How is the drainage at Natstros Park?

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #434: August 30, 2019, 11:30:37 AM »
How is the drainage at Natstros Park?

hopefully it was designed to handle 20-30" of rain.

Offline The Chief

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #435: August 30, 2019, 11:36:33 AM »
Time to nuke it :stir:

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #436: August 30, 2019, 11:45:21 AM »
Time to nuke it :stir:

hey, no politics in the weather thread. :)

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #437: August 30, 2019, 02:33:52 PM »
Latest Euro has Dorian barely coming ashore near Jupiter, but with the eye out to sea, then hugging the coast and plowing into SC around Charleston.  GFS shows it a bit further west, with the eye essentially going over the FL coast and into Georgia.

Either way, none of the models are showing the scenario of it going over FL and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #438: August 30, 2019, 03:17:24 PM »
hey, no politics in the weather thread. :)

Do your job, Mod!  ;)

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #439: August 30, 2019, 03:20:31 PM »
Do your job, Mod!  ;)

if he brings politics into The Farm, I'll put him in timeout. :)

Offline DCFan

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #440: August 30, 2019, 04:03:07 PM »
I heard it was upgraded to Cat 4 today.

Offline DCFan

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #441: August 30, 2019, 04:23:21 PM »
I heard it was upgraded to Cat 4 today.

False alarm. It’s still a 3.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #442: August 30, 2019, 04:43:32 PM »
False alarm. It’s still a 3.

The NHC is projecting to be a Cat 4 soon, it's strengthening now.   Next update at 5

Offline Slateman

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #443: August 30, 2019, 04:46:29 PM »
The NHC is projecting to be a Cat 4 soon, it's strengthening now.   Next update at 5

So it's a 3 and you're just here to fear monger?

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #444: August 30, 2019, 04:59:43 PM »
So it's a 3 and you're just here to fear monger?

Not feeding trolls today.  Sorry.

Offline Slateman

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #445: August 30, 2019, 05:00:18 PM »
Not feeding trolls today.  Sorry.
Lol, you're the troll in this thread

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #446: August 30, 2019, 05:01:59 PM »
So it's a 3 and you're just here to fear monger?
don't most guys exaggerate size a bit?

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #447: August 30, 2019, 08:33:31 PM »
Not Attila the Stockbroker
don't most guys exaggerate size a bit?

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #448: August 30, 2019, 08:56:07 PM »
It hit Cat 4 today  :shock:

Offline skippy1999

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Re: The Weather (2019)
« Reply #449: August 30, 2019, 10:31:22 PM »
Latest Euro has Dorian barely coming ashore near Jupiter, but with the eye out to sea, then hugging the coast and plowing into SC around Charleston.  GFS shows it a bit further west, with the eye essentially going over the FL coast and into Georgia.

Either way, none of the models are showing the scenario of it going over FL and into the Gulf of Mexico.


Good, then maybe these people will all stay put and I can get home Sunday without spending half if my life stuck in evacuation traffic :pray: :pray: