Author Topic: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)  (Read 10026 times)

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Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #75: December 07, 2018, 11:51:25 AM »
Minor issue to quibble, but how did you come up with 877?  Do opening day rosters include DL players under contract?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/639334/major-league-baseball-players-on-opering-day-rosters/

No idea how they came up with it, but between 4 and 5 players starting the year on the dl per team seemed about right

Offline varoadking

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #76: December 07, 2018, 02:30:09 PM »
https://www.statista.com/statistics/639334/major-league-baseball-players-on-opering-day-rosters/

No idea how they came up with it, but between 4 and 5 players starting the year on the dl per team seemed about right



Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #78: December 11, 2018, 12:59:33 AM »
Marlins still shopping Realmuto. Word is that Dodgers inquired and told the price was Bellinger PLUS prospects. If this is true, they are insane. I would have hung up the phone upon hearing that request and assumed they didn’t want to really trade him.

Offline imref

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #79: December 11, 2018, 06:31:24 AM »
Marlins still shopping Realmuto. Word is that Dodgers inquired and told the price was Bellinger PLUS prospects. If this is true, they are insane. I would have hung up the phone upon hearing that request and assumed they didn’t want to really trade him.

Mlbtr notes the Mets, Yankees, and marlins are discussing a three team deal that would send realmuto to the Mets, Syndergard to the Yankees and prospects to Miami.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #80: December 11, 2018, 07:17:11 AM »

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #81: December 11, 2018, 09:16:53 AM »
Mlbtr notes the Mets, Yankees, and marlins are discussing a three team deal that would send realmuto to the Mets, Syndergard to the Yankees and prospects to Miami.
Makes a ton of sense for the NYY.  Send Andujar in the package and sign Machado, or build a package around Frazier plus prospects, throw in Bird, and sign Bryce to play 1st.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #82: December 11, 2018, 09:19:50 AM »
Mlbtr notes the Mets, Yankees, and marlins are discussing a three team deal that would send realmuto to the Mets, Syndergard to the Yankees and prospects to Miami.

I can't even fathom what this trade would look like. I'm surprised if Syndergaard wasn't considered more valuable than Realmuto given the extra year of control. So I don't see why the Mets would include any prospects in the deal. And the Yankees don't seem to have the prospects to send Miami. So are they trading away young MLB talent?

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #83: December 11, 2018, 09:22:32 AM »
Makes a ton of sense for the NYY.  Send Andujar in the package and sign Machado, or build a package around Frazier plus prospects, throw in Bird, and sign Bryce to play 1st.

Is Andujar enough as a headliner? This would seem quite light for me, compared to what they're asking for from other teams.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #84: December 11, 2018, 09:30:06 AM »
Is Andujar enough as a headliner? This would seem quite light for me, compared to what they're asking for from other teams.

Sure, given how much teams overvalue Yankees and Red Sox prospects.  ESPN is a hell of a thing. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #85: December 11, 2018, 10:32:47 AM »
What is the NYY's farm system ranked now? 10 on MLB's rankings, FG has them lower.  Ton of pitching even after trading Sheffield. No Robles-level position prospect in the minors, maybe not even a Kieboom.  I'm going to guess they have pitching prospects of interest to Jeter, and 1st / 2d year major-league positions players like Frazier and Andujar (ROY) also have some value even after graduating. 

Sure, given how much teams overvalue Yankees and Red Sox prospects.  ESPN is a hell of a thing. 
This isn't the best few years of ragging on the Yankee and Red Sox farm system.  Just too many home grown all stars and guys doing well  after trades.  It wasn't all ESPN hype.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #86: December 11, 2018, 11:01:34 AM »
What is the NYY's farm system ranked now? 10 on MLB's rankings, FG has them lower.  Ton of pitching even after trading Sheffield. No Robles-level position prospect in the minors, maybe not even a Kieboom.  I'm going to guess they have pitching prospects of interest to Jeter, and 1st / 2d year major-league positions players like Frazier and Andujar (ROY) also have some value even after graduating. 
This isn't the best few years of ragging on the Yankee and Red Sox farm system.  Just too many home grown all stars and guys doing well  after trades.  It wasn't all ESPN hype.

They're both quite astute teams at keeping the good ones and trading the less good ones.   That's where the hype plays in - all the prospects get a ton of hype, and then the teams dump the ones for whom they think the hype isn't justified.  Let's see how Sheffield does, but I wonder how the White Sox feel right now about Moncada (and Kopech, although that's a different situation) or the A's how they feel about Dustin Fowler and the rest of the Sonny Gray package. 

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #87: December 11, 2018, 11:04:28 AM »
What is the NYY's farm system ranked now? 10 on MLB's rankings, FG has them lower.  Ton of pitching even after trading Sheffield. No Robles-level position prospect in the minors, maybe not even a Kieboom.  I'm going to guess they have pitching prospects of interest to Jeter, and 1st / 2d year major-league positions players like Frazier and Andujar (ROY) also have some value even after graduating. 
This isn't the best few years of ragging on the Yankee and Red Sox farm system.  Just too many home grown all stars and guys doing well  after trades.  It wasn't all ESPN hype.

Still though - Fangraphs has NYY with two 50s left in their system and then a bunch of 45s. So Carter Kieboom is worth like both of those 50s and a 45 or two, and then a guy like Robles is worth more than Andujar. At a certain point to get the same value the Marlins have been asking for from other teams, they'd end up with a "pupu platter" from NYY.

Anyways, I hope the deal gets made, because I'd love for Jeter to simply have given the NYY a sweetheart deal again. What a dick.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #88: December 11, 2018, 11:06:19 AM »
I guess Andujar was top 15 last year, so that's probably a good enough first piece. I'd be interested to see if the Yankees can get Thor this way and then just sign Machado to play 3B.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #89: December 11, 2018, 11:16:33 AM »
I guess Andujar was top 15 last year, so that's probably a good enough first piece. I'd be interested to see if the Yankees can get Thor this way and then just sign Machado to play 3B.
Also, Torres was top 5 last year, so he's a good comparable for Robles, except he has had a very good rookie year already.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #90: December 11, 2018, 11:36:20 AM »
Also, Torres was top 5 last year, so he's a good comparable for Robles, except he has had a very good rookie year already.

He's not going anywhere though. No chance NYY trade Andujar and Torres for 3 years of Thor.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #91: December 11, 2018, 11:46:39 AM »
Denbo, the Marlins' player personnel guy, was director of player development at NYY before that. Not surprised they're trying to work out a deal here.

Andujar just hit .277 with 27 dongs and 92 RBIs in his first full season at 3B. His defense sucks but still 2.2 WAR as a rookie. Kid is really good but IMO destined for LF or more of a DH role.

Also lol @ teams falling for ESPN hype. These teams employ legions of scouts, their GMs aren't making moves based on ESPN or media hype. The baseball media definitely plays up prospects from New York or Boston but in recent years it's been pretty legit. More than anything I think Yankees fans are prospect-hugging these days. They were upset at trading Sheffield for Paxton, smh.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #92: December 11, 2018, 03:02:22 PM »
Pirates trade Nova to White Sox

Cutch signs 3 year deal with Phillies (3 years $50M)

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #93: December 11, 2018, 07:35:04 PM »
Wow that feels a little heavy on McCutchen.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #94: December 12, 2018, 08:43:42 AM »
Wow that feels a little heavy on McCutchen.
You might be right.  I checked his FG WAR last year, and it was 2.6.  If he duplicates that next year, and goes 2.1 and 1.6 the next two, it works out. If it were $36MM and I wouldn't bat an eye.

As the article linked below says, the contract looks somewhat similar to the Santana deal but no loss of draft pick, so effectively $15MM cheaper than Santana.  Roster-wise, it gives them more options OF options when Hoskins moves to 1st and does not preclude playing in the Harper auction or otherwise blocking a second OF pick up.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/andrew-mccutchen-boosts-a-lackluster-outfield/

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #95: December 12, 2018, 09:13:05 AM »
You might be right.  I checked his FG WAR last year, and it was 2.6.  If he duplicates that next year, and goes 2.1 and 1.6 the next two, it works out. If it were $36MM and I wouldn't bat an eye.

Yeah I mean I guess it won't kill them payroll-wise. They should have plenty of money. It just seems like, as a franchise, you had a breakdown in development if you're having to pay aging veterans market-rate $/WAR to be average players at non-premium defensive positions.

I guess that's what happened with the Phillies with Nick Williams. It seems crazy they can't get him to be an average defender, which would make McCutchen unnecessary.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #96: December 12, 2018, 09:15:20 AM »
I feel similarly about paying middle relievers a lot of money. We've been having to do that to a certain extent, but at least our reason is that we were trading away RP to make playoff runs for 5 years. The Phillies haven't been to the playoffs since 2011. They haven't been able to develop a league-average RF in 7 years?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #97: December 12, 2018, 09:32:40 AM »
Yeah I mean I guess it won't kill them payroll-wise. They should have plenty of money. It just seems like, as a franchise, you had a breakdown in development if you're having to pay aging veterans market-rate $/WAR to be average players at non-premium defensive positions.

I guess that's what happened with the Phillies with Nick Williams. It seems crazy they can't get him to be an average defender, which would make McCutchen unnecessary.
If you look at Williams stats last year his hitting was below average also. Aaron Altherr fell off the cliff also. Bottom line is they have two OF spits they wanted to fill with Hoskins moving to 1B. I believe Adam Haseley will be ready before too long.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #98: December 12, 2018, 09:56:00 AM »
If you look at Williams stats last year his hitting was below average also. Aaron Altherr fell off the cliff also. Bottom line is they have two OF spits they wanted to fill with Hoskins moving to 1B. I believe Adam Haseley will be ready before too long.

Not disagreeing with any of that, I'm just saying I don't think it's optimal to have to fill corner OF holes with average veterans at full market price. If you've undergone a 5-year rebuild and you can't even fill a corner OF spot internally, you had a bad rebuild developing your hitters.

And I think the stats bear that out. From 2016-2018 the only above average hitter the Phillies have produced from their rebuild is Rhys Hoskins. I mean maybe you can really twist yourself in knots and say that Hernandez or Herrera are the tiniest bit above-average for their positions, but really their hitting development has been awful.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason (Non-Nats)
« Reply #99: December 12, 2018, 09:59:06 AM »
Not disagreeing with any of that, I'm just saying I don't think it's optimal to have to fill corner OF holes with average veterans at full market price. If you've undergone a 5-year rebuild and you can't even fill a corner OF spot internally, you had a bad rebuild developing your hitters.

And I think the stats bear that out. From 2016-2018 the only above average hitter the Phillies have produced from their rebuild is Rhys Hoskins. I mean maybe you can really twist yourself in knots and say that Hernandez or Herrera are the tiniest bit above-average for their positions, but really their hitting development has been awful.
He came in a trade. Most of the prospects they have gotten in trades have not panned out or the jury is still out. Like Alfaro. At the same time they drafted poorly. Remarkable they finished near .500 last year. Bottom line is they have lots of money to buy themselves a contender. May or may not work out. Three years doesn’t paralyze them.