Yeah, I know it's Bleacher Report, but the analysis is pretty good IMHO:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2813637-nationals-350m-all-in-bryce-harper-reunion-would-steal-dodgers-nl-throneIt sure seems like there isn't a clear favorite to lure the 2015 National League MVP away from Washington, which may explain why the Nationals are keeping in touch: They smell an opportunity.
It's to the Nationals' credit that they haven't been sitting on their hands as the Harper saga plays out. They made a huge addition to their starting rotation when they inked ace left-hander Patrick Corbin to a six-year, $140 million contract. Anibal Sanchez was a smaller yet hardly insignificant upgrade.
Meanwhile on the offensive side of things, the Nats erased a huge question mark at catcher by bringing in 2018 All-Star Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki. Throw in Matt Adams as a platoon partner for Ryan Zimmerman at first base, and you get a darn good response to a disappointing 82-win campaign in 2018.
The only downside is that the Nationals have inflated their payroll in the process. Roster Resource projects their 2019 expenses at $191.7 million, and at $193.8 million for luxury tax purposes. The latter puts them $12.2 million below the $206 million threshold for 2019.
Barring a whole bunch of salary dumps, there's no way the Nationals can re-sign Bryce Harper and stay under that threshold. The deal he rejected in September would have counted $30 million per year against the tax. Realistically, it'll likely take something closer to a $350 million total guarantee with a $35 million average annual value to actually get him to sign on the ol' dotted line.
However, the luxury tax isn't necessarily the deal-breaker that it's made out to be.
As long as the Nationals don't exceed the threshold by more than $40 million, they'd only be signing up for financial penalties if they brought Harper back. At worst, they'd be looking at a $12 million-to-$15 million tax in 2019, after which they could soften future blows by parting ways with Zimmerman, Adam Eaton and Howie Kendrick.
That cost shouldn't be too great, provided the potential reward for signing Harper is far greater. And in this case, the potential reward is nothing less than National League superiority.
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