Poll

Updated - who does Harper sign with?

Nationals
25 (47.2%)
Phillies
22 (41.5%)
Padres
2 (3.8%)
D'backs
1 (1.9%)
White Sox
3 (5.7%)

Total Members Voted: 53

Author Topic: POLL: UPDATED: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....  (Read 75771 times)

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Offline Expos

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #200: November 03, 2018, 11:41:42 PM »
I like Bryce but one things for sure, we haven't won when it matters when he is making 20 million, why would anything change when he is making 30 mil +?

If anything one could argue that we would be worse because that extra salary makes us a weaker team.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #201: November 04, 2018, 12:10:56 AM »
I like Bryce but one things for sure, we haven't won when it matters when he is making 20 million, why would anything change when he is making 30 mil +?

I'm fine with Bryce walking, but this isn't a good argument.  One could have said the same thing about Alex Ovechkin some years back.  Just because a player hasn't been a (key) part of a championship team early in their career doesn't mean they never will be.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #202: November 04, 2018, 12:37:56 AM »
I'm fine with Bryce walking, but this isn't a good argument.  One could have said the same thing about Alex Ovechkin some years back.  Just because a player hasn't been a (key) part of a championship team early in their career doesn't mean they never will be.

Right? I hate that argument too, ridiculous.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #203: November 05, 2018, 09:48:47 PM »
How long will this drag on for I wonder? :(

Offline spidernat

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #204: November 05, 2018, 09:55:44 PM »
:crackup:


Offline Slateman

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Offline spidernat

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #207: November 05, 2018, 10:55:39 PM »
:panic:


Offline imref

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #209: November 05, 2018, 11:48:02 PM »
Time to move this to the out of town scoreboard?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #210: November 06, 2018, 11:12:32 AM »
not until he signs elsewhere. 

I don't see spending $30MM/yr for 10 years for a 1st baseman. 

Online UMDNats

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #211: November 06, 2018, 11:18:04 AM »
I don't see them committing $30 million a year to Harper, especially as a 1B. Probably just doing due diligence.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #212: November 06, 2018, 11:46:07 AM »
I don't see them committing $30 million a year to Harper, especially as a 1B. Probably just doing due diligence.

or just some yahoo on twitter making things up? :shrug:

Online UMDNats

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #213: November 06, 2018, 11:48:42 AM »
or just some yahoo on twitter making things up? :shrug:

I doubt he's making it up - that is less common than people think - but I suspect he has a buddy in the FO who feeds him stuff. I could text a few people right now and say, "is there interest in harper, corbin or machado?" and get a "yes" but that doesn't mean crap. He could have asked a buddy, "would the yankees consider harper at 1B, and have you studied that possibility?" and gotten a "sure" and then ran with it. a lot of reporters have consistent sources who leak stuff with an agenda, so a lot of SOURCES: stuff regarding trades/FA i disregard because there's so many people with random sources and meh-level background. Bob Nightengale (USA Today) is super tight with Dusty Baker and got his Nats stuff straight from him.

Like in 2014 I knew the Yankees were focused on McCann, Beltran, Ellsbury & Tanaka but could have also told a reporter (had I been asked) that they were looking at Shin-Shoo Choo and had an elaborate presentation for Cano before he left. It's easy to give reporters soft "scoops" that ultimately is just a team doing their job.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #214: November 06, 2018, 12:01:27 PM »
I doubt he's making it up - that is less common than people think - but I suspect he has a buddy in the FO who feeds him stuff. I could text a few people right now and say, "is there interest in harper, corbin or machado?" and get a "yes" but that doesn't mean crap. He could have asked a buddy, "would the yankees consider harper at 1B, and have you studied that possibility?" and gotten a "sure" and then ran with it. a lot of reporters have consistent sources who leak stuff with an agenda, so a lot of SOURCES: stuff regarding trades/FA i disregard because there's so many people with random sources and meh-level background. Bob Nightengale (USA Today) is super tight with Dusty Baker and got his Nats stuff straight from him.

Like in 2014 I knew the Yankees were focused on McCann, Beltran, Ellsbury & Tanaka but could have also told a reporter (had I been asked) that they were looking at Shin-Shoo Choo and had an elaborate presentation for Cano before he left. It's easy to give reporters soft "scoops" that ultimately is just a team doing their job.

Maybe, but the idea that the Nats are giving the Yanks their thoughts on how Bryce would do at 1st base strikes me as ludicrous. 

Online UMDNats

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #215: November 06, 2018, 12:03:05 PM »
Maybe, but the idea that the Nats are giving the Yanks their thoughts on how Bryce would do at 1st base strikes me as ludicrous. 

Oh I agree, I think that is bullcrap and I question that part of it completely. Maybe his source had a casual conversation with a Nats counterpart but Brian Cashman isn't calling up Rizzo and being like, "so, thoughts on Bryce, huh?"

That nugget tells me his source is a lower-level guy in the FO who has no real power or sway or information but knows what general things are going on.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #216: November 06, 2018, 12:19:03 PM »
Oh I agree, I think that is bullcrap and I question that part of it completely. Maybe his source had a casual conversation with a Nats counterpart but Brian Cashman isn't calling up Rizzo and being like, "so, thoughts on Bryce, huh?"

That nugget tells me his source is a lower-level guy in the FO who has no real power or sway or information but knows what general things are going on.

Gotcha :thumbs:

Offline Slateman

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #217: November 06, 2018, 12:26:39 PM »
not until he signs elsewhere. 

I don't see spending $30MM/yr for 10 years for a 1st baseman. 

Wait .... WHAT!?!

Angels spent close to that in 2012 when Pujols was 32. Miguel Cabrera got 8/248 million for a 31 million AAV to play first base.

You can definitely spend that money on a first baseman, particularly one as young as Harper. Pujols was coming of a season with a wRC+ of 133 (Harper had 135 this season), 3.3 WAR (Harper - 3.5), and an .859 OPS (Harper - .889). Admittedly, Cabrera was much better the season before he signed his deal, but he was also older.

We've seen glimpses of what Harper is capable of. If you can get him to come into the season looking to win a batting title instead of a home run title,  he will be right back where he was in 2015. And that is, frankly, worth way more than 10 years/300 million. Even at first base.

Bryce shouldn't be in RF. He's not a good OFer. He has to know this. There are plenty of creative ways to use his arm at first base.

Offline spidernat

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #218: November 06, 2018, 12:52:22 PM »
Where is Insane Boost when you most need him.

Offline DCFan

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #219: November 06, 2018, 02:15:05 PM »
Wait .... WHAT!?!

Angels spent close to that in 2012 when Pujols was 32. 

And all that money for a first baseman with the addition of Trout has gotten the Angels where?

Offline Mathguy

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #220: November 06, 2018, 02:16:42 PM »
Probably alot more gate & concession revenue.  But it just shows that pitching is the name of the game

And all that money for a first baseman with the addition of Trout has gotten the Angels where?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #221: November 06, 2018, 02:54:40 PM »
Wait .... WHAT!?!

Angels spent close to that in 2012 when Pujols was 32. Miguel Cabrera got 8/248 million for a 31 million AAV to play first base.

While there's some general inflation, those turned out to be cruddy deals and there's been some revision in the market for 1st since then.  The Cabrera deal was signed in 2014.  Other than that, there's the Chris Davis albatross recently at $23MM, and every other one of the top 8 contracts for 1B were signed in 2012 or earlier.  The last nice long term contract for a 1B was Freddie Freeman's at < $17MM AAV for 8 years, although that one may have had a discount buying out some arb years.  Really, if you want to see ugly, look at the top 25 1B contracts by AAV.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

I think the past few years have shown you can get 20+ HR production from a bunch of lower tier 1B FAs and just go year-to-year without the massive locked in AAV for a decade. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #222: November 06, 2018, 05:33:44 PM »
While there's some general inflation, those turned out to be cruddy deals and there's been some revision in the market for 1st since then.  The Cabrera deal was signed in 2014.  Other than that, there's the Chris Davis albatross recently at $23MM, and every other one of the top 8 contracts for 1B were signed in 2012 or earlier.  The last nice long term contract for a 1B was Freddie Freeman's at < $17MM AAV for 8 years, although that one may have had a discount buying out some arb years.  Really, if you want to see ugly, look at the top 25 1B contracts by AAV.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

I think the past few years have shown you can get 20+ HR production from a bunch of lower tier 1B FAs and just go year-to-year without the massive locked in AAV for a decade. 

Harper is far younger.

There is nothing Harper does defensively that justifies a massive contract. Nothing. His bat and baserunning gets him the money. It doesnt matter where he plays. If hes worth 30+ million in RF, hes worth the same at 1B.

Offline Dave301

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Offline aBaltoNat

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Re: POLL: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....
« Reply #224: November 06, 2018, 07:22:09 PM »
I had a gut feeling that being a Nat was more important than the biggest deal ever. I guess I was wrong.

Once you're into that type of guaranteed money, a couple million extra a year doesn't even mean anything. It's an ego thing at this point t. Too bad.