Wash Post: Bob Miller Let Go - Lerner is cheap or just a really terrible person

[bluestreak]

they brought in the wrong rookie- Cora and Boone were both fine

The Yankees and Red Sox were objectively better than the Nats. And their success doesn't change the fact that rookies are more likely to not do well than experienced managers. You are rolling the dice. It worked out for Boston and New York, it didn't for the Nats. Kapler's team collapsed at the end. Like not even competitive.
And it's not like the Nats wouldn't have taken Cora if they could... They got a rookie that was bottom of the barrel after everyone had gotten their pick.

[HalfSmokes]

The Yankees and Red Sox were objectively better than the Nats. And their success doesn't change the fact that rookies are more likely to not do well than experienced managers. You are rolling the dice. It worked out for Boston and New York, it didn't for the Nats. Kapler's team collapsed at the end. Like not even competitive.
And it's not like the Nats wouldn't have taken Cora if they could... They got a rookie that was bottom of the barrel after everyone had gotten their pick.

Do you have any numbers on rookie vs non rookie managers? Rookies seem disproportionately represented in this year’s playoffs

[bluestreak]

Do you have any numbers on rookie vs non rookie managers? Rookies seem disproportionately represented in this year’s playoffs

So I did some cursory looking and found this, which looked at the situation that Martinez is in, a rookie manager taking over a team that went to the playoffs the year before. Basically, those managers don't do very well. And history shows that it's probably a better bet to hire a guy with experience.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/10/22/red-sox-are-looking-past-alex-cora-managerial-inexperience/q9EBgmM20K4aOV7grwDGYL/story.html

Rookie managers who inherited playoff teams (1969-2016)

Year   Team   Playoff manager   Record   Advanced to Replaced by    Year   Record   Advanced to

2015   Dodgers   Don Mattingly   92-70   NLDS   Dave Roberts   2016    91-71   NLCS

2013   Tigers   Jim Leyland   93-69   ALCS            Brad Ausmus   2014    90-72   ALDS

2013   Reds           Dusty Baker   90-72   WC            Bryan Price   2014    76-86   Missed playoffs

2011   Cardinals   Tony LaRussa   90-72   Won WS   Mike Matheny   2012    88-74   NLCS

2006   Athletics   Ken Macha           93-69   ALCS            Bob Geren   2007    76-86   Missed playoffs

2006   Padres   Bruce Bochy   88-74   NLDS   Bud Black           2007    89-74   Missed playoffs (163rd game)

2002   Athletics   Art Howe           103-59   ALDS   Ken Macha           2003    96-66   ALDS

1999   Indians   Mike Hargrove   97-65   ALDS   Charlie Manuel   2000    90-72   Missed playoffs

1995   Reds           Davey Johnson   85-59   NLCS   Ray Knight   1996    81-81   Missed playoffs

1985   Blue Jays   Bobby Cox           99-62   ALCS           Jimy Williams   1986    86-76   Missed playoffs

1980   Yankees   Dick Howser   103-59   ALCS           Gene Michael/Bob Lemon*   1981   59-48   Lost WS

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference.com
* - Michael, a first-time manager, replaced Howser, but was fired in September of the strike-shortened 1981 season. Lemon, who had prior managerial experience, replaced him for the final 25 games of the regular season and the playoffs.


Of the 47 World Series winners since the introduction of the League Championship Series round in 1969, just three have been helmed by a player in his first full season as a manager: the 2001 Diamondbacks (Bob Brenly), the 1987 Twins (Tom Kelly), and the 1980 Phillies (Dallas Green).

Both Kelly and Green had served as the interim managers of their teams late in the season before their championship runs as “rookie” managers, and so they generally are viewed as being at least somewhat distinct from Brenly, who became the first manager to claim a title without prior big league managerial experience since Ralph Houk won titles with a loaded Yankees team in 1961 and 1962.

It’s far more common for an experienced manager to inherit a ready-to-win club and to achieve baseball’s ultimate prize in his first season with a new club. Of the nine managers to do so since 1969, the most recent two were Red Sox. Terry Francona (four years removed from his firing in Philadelphia) won in his first year on the job in Boston in 2004, while John Farrell won a championship with the Sox after coming to Boston in 2013 following two years managing the Blue Jays.

[HalfSmokes]

I wonder if miller had something to do with payroll calculations- if Janes is right and they don’t want to get near the threshold it could be because the Lerners don’t trust the front office to do the math

[Ray D]

I wonder if miller had something to do with payroll calculations- if Janes is right and they don’t want to get near the threshold it could be because the Lerners don’t trust the front office to do the math

I thought only players pay is counted.

[HalfSmokes]

I thought only players pay is counted.

Front office isn’t counted, but I’m wondering if he’s the falll guy for the debacle

[PowerBoater69]

Could be, going over when the expectation was that they were under was a pretty big screw up.

[aspenbubba]

I wonder if miller had something to do with payroll calculations- if Janes is right and they don’t want to get near the threshold it could be because the Lerners don’t trust the front office to do the math

look at reply # 6 in this thread

[blue911]

look at reply # 6 in this thread

He could have miscalculated the August sell-off money as it being enough to get under the cap. Who knows. He was let go in plenty of time to catch on with another team for next season so let's not lose perspective.

[PowerBoater69]

He could have miscalculated the August sell-off money as it being enough to get under the cap. Who knows. He was let go in plenty of time to catch on with another team for next season so let's not lose perspective.

The miscalculation was last year. Rizzo announced at Winter Fest 2017 that the Nats were under the cap, which turned out to be incorrect.

[PowerBoater69]

@chelsea_janes A forgotten note from yesterday: Rizzo described conversation with ownership over assistant GM Bob Miller's departure as "difficult" and "loud." Said he has been stumping for Miller with teams, and "anybody who asks, I tell them you'll be a better organization when you get him."

[Five Banners]

@chelsea_janes A forgotten note from yesterday: Rizzo described conversation with ownership over assistant GM Bob Miller's departure as "difficult" and "loud." Said he has been stumping for Miller with teams, and "anybody who asks, I tell them you'll be a better organization when you get him."

Wow, echoes of Redskins Park

[UMDNats]

If Rizzo is that willing to air that dirty laundry, yikes.

[HalfSmokes]

Gotta put blame somewhere- Rizzo is a hell of a leaker

[UMDNats]

Gotta put blame somewhere- Rizzo is a hell of a leaker

The last week has featured us leaking our Harper offer and dirty laundry re: ownership, not to mention us leaking that the Dodgers offered Puig but we said no (implying it was a Lerner veto). Rizzo playing the game.

[Natsinpwc]

The last week has featured us leaking our Harper offer and dirty laundry re: ownership, not to mention us leaking that the Dodgers offered Puig but we said no (implying it was a Lerner veto). Rizzo playing the game.

It’s what he does.  Might even be true.

[DCFan]

Wow, echoes of Redskins Park

As you know I don't follow the Redskins so I don't know what transpires there but I don't see the problem here. This tells me that Rizzo was forced to fire Miller and he let the Lerners know he wasn't happy about it. And he's going to bat for Miller with any team that inquires about him.

[Natsinpwc]

As you know I don't follow the Redskins so I don't know what transpires there but I don't see the problem here. This tells me that Rizzo was forced to fire Miller and he let the Lerners know he wasn't happy about it. And he's going to bat for Miller with any team that inquires about him.

LAC. But at least they are willing to have a strong GM in place. Unlike Danny Boy.