2018-2019 Offseason Moves

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Syndergaard is better for 150 innings than just about anyone you could realistically trade for who pitches 200

It would take big [guts] to do a deal for Syndergaard within the division, both on the Mets part and the acquiring team's.  Thor breaks down, and you doom yourself for years to what ifs and why can't we get guys like that every time Robles, Garcia and whatever else you throw in makes a play against you. 

In retrospect, and maybe even at the time, the persistent dealing of pitching has bit this team in the behind.  Things would be much simpler if we still had Lopez, Giolito, and Dunning here.  Lopez wasn't quite ready but had a nice 2d half last year, and if Giolito doesn't end up more than Mike Pelfrey, well, not everyone hits their projection. 

[Slateman]

Giolito sported an ERA over 6. Lopez has been decent but I think hes overachieving slightly.

So basically, if we hadnt made that trade, we'd still have a gaping hole at our number 2/3 spot in the rotation, question Mark's after that,  a gaping hole in RF,  and no second baseman.

Rizzo did the right thing trading them. If anything, he waited too long. If anything, I'd question the dealings of Pivetta and Luzardo before questioning Giolito

[Mattionals]

Giolito sported an ERA over 6. Lopez has been decent but I think hes overachieving slightly.

So basically, if we hadnt made that trade, we'd still have a gaping hole at our number 2/3 spot in the rotation, question Mark's after that,  a gaping hole in RF,  and no second baseman.

Rizzo did the right thing trading them. If anything, he waited too long. If anything, I'd question the dealings of Pivetta and Luzardo before questioning Giolito

Luzardo stings the most, but you are also right on Pivetta. Pivetta is a perfect number 4 and he was traded for Papelbum. That just sucks.

[imref]

Rizzo still in the market for a front-line catcher:

http://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2018/11/some-thoughts-on-realmuto-grandal-and-ramos.html

[Slateman]

Rizzo still in the market for a front-line catcher:

http://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2018/11/some-thoughts-on-realmuto-grandal-and-ramos.html

I mean, yea if you're willing to give up Carter K and some other pieces. Could get Realmuto and Castro, thus taking care of your catcher and second base issues for ~20 million.  When Zim goes to the DL, Realmuto can slide to first base. 

[Greg_SRT]

I’d rather sign Grandal over trading for J.T

I don’t want to give Miami crap. I certainly don’t want to give multiple prospects for J.T to walk next year.

[Mattionals]

I’d rather sign Grandal over trading for J.T

I don’t want to give Miami crap. I certainly don’t want to give multiple prospects for J.T to walk next year.

I also like Grandal defensively as a catcher more. Plus I feel Grandal in the 7 or 8 hole fits the lineup better.

[Slateman]

Grandal is going to cost 15+ million. Rather give up prospects while the window is open

[varoadking]

...Rather give up prospects while the window is open.

 

[Greg_SRT]

Grandal is going to cost 15+ million. Rather give up prospects while the window is open

J.T will be cheaper for 2019. After that you may not be able to resign him. But 2020 on he is very likely to get more money because is .BA is higher. But their OBP is identical.

I don't want to give up our top prospects.

[hotshot]

Given the decline in batting averages in 2018, you could extrapolate Realmuto's .277 BA to probably .300.  Not many catchers with that BA/pop. Who knows if C. Kieboom or Garcia will ever amount to much.

Realmuto is also 3 years younger than Grandal (who is 30, not a young age for a catcher). Grandal and I both went to the University of Miami so I'm inclined to root for my fellow Cane but ... JT is the better acquisition.

[Slateman]

J.T will be cheaper for 2019. After that you may not be able to resign him. But 2020 on he is very likely to get more money because is .BA is higher. But their OBP is identical.

I don't want to give up our top prospects.

He also hits for way more power. And that doesnt factor in his away splits.

If you arent willing to make the trades and your ownership isnt willing to spend, then the team won't be competitive. Its really that simple. Keiboom isnt going to help the team two to three years from now when Rendon and Max are gone, Zimmerman is useless, Strasburg is broken, and the Nats wont pay for free agents to make the team competitive

[Mattionals]

He also hits for way more power. And that doesnt factor in his away splits.

If you arent willing to make the trades and your ownership isnt willing to spend, then the team won't be competitive. Its really that simple. Keiboom isnt going to help the team two to three years from now when Rendon and Max are gone, Zimmerman is useless, Strasburg is broken, and the Nats wont pay for free agents to make the team competitive

You gotta get called out on this one. Realmuto by the numbers has some very bizarre BABIP between Home and Away. Like 100 points difference bizarre. Looking at Ozuna, Stanton, Yelich, and even Dee Gordon, no one had as extreme splits between home and away BABIP. That isn't park factor, that is just super weird. I don't think Realmuto is a .356 hitter at another stadium just because his splits say that. The sample at home is much larger, and even given park factor, I think Realmuto's BABIP will be much closer to .300. Realmuto also hits .236 ISO on the road, and that won't translate to being a .236 ISO hitter at a new home park. He is probably closer to a .200 ISO which is still excellent, but Grandal probably projects to be a .210 ISO hitter, and give some credit to the fact that Dodgers Stadium on list of park factor isn't much ahead of Marlins Park.

Realmuto is the flashy name, likely the better pure hitter, but weaker defensively (except for throwing runners out), hits for a bit less power, but is overall the higher WAR player. Is that worth trading Kieboom and Robles when they both fill needs on the MLB team (assuming Harper does not return)? I think I'd rather lose a draft pick, suck up 16M a year for a catcher who will be 34 at the end of his deal, and keep Kieboom and Robles. I'll take more years of control with Robles and Kieboom over two years of Realmuto.

[varoadking]

I'll take more years of control with Robles and Kieboom over two years of Realmuto.

Amen...

I have no idea what else you said, but this is spot on...

[Natsinpwc]

This discussion about Realmuto and Grandal is funny. They signed Suzuki for two years and they are not going to fork out more for a catcher. He will split time with whoever emerges among the younger guys.

LAC. They are not going to sign Grandal after spending money on Suzuki. Rizzo is not going to trade away prospects for 2 years of Realmuto. Just remember that they will need Kieboom to replace Rendon. 

[Slateman]

You gotta get called out on this one. Realmuto by the numbers has some very bizarre BABIP between Home and Away. Like 100 points difference bizarre. Looking at Ozuna, Stanton, Yelich, and even Dee Gordon, no one had as extreme splits between home and away BABIP. That isn't park factor, that is just super weird. I don't think Realmuto is a .356 hitter at another stadium just because his splits say that. The sample at home is much larger, and even given park factor, I think Realmuto's BABIP will be much closer to .300. Realmuto also hits .236 ISO on the road, and that won't translate to being a .236 ISO hitter at a new home park. He is probably closer to a .200 ISO which is still excellent, but Grandal probably projects to be a .210 ISO hitter, and give some credit to the fact that Dodgers Stadium on list of park factor isn't much ahead of Marlins Park.

Realmuto is the flashy name, likely the better pure hitter, but weaker defensively (except for throwing runners out), hits for a bit less power, but is overall the higher WAR player. Is that worth trading Kieboom and Robles when they both fill needs on the MLB team (assuming Harper does not return)? I think I'd rather lose a draft pick, suck up 16M a year for a catcher who will be 34 at the end of his deal, and keep Kieboom and Robles. I'll take more years of control with Robles and Kieboom over two years of Realmuto.

Except Realmuto has consistently hit better away from Marlins park. Its not a fluke. He hits better away from there. Last year his Home/Away BABIP splits were very close and he was still a much better hitter away, with a much higher slugging percentage.

He has hit 290/.333/.449   in DC for his career.

Keiboom has zero value to this team other than trade value. He wont be ready next season. At best, hes Rendon's replacement. More than likely he is a ~.275 hitter with some pop. While nice, he isnt going to be enough to get you over the hump. Even if hes as good as Rendon, it won't matter because that simply wont be enough to get the team into the playoffs.

The time is now. You have two years of Max and then this franchise turns into the the 2013-2017 Phillies.

[varoadking]

Max is signed thru the 2021 season...

[Slateman]

Max is signed thru the 2021 season...

And? However long hes here is irrelevant.  If you think he'd gonna be as dominant in three years,  you're an idiot. Strasburg will still be hurt. Rendon will be gone. And Zim, if he's here, will be a shell. The time is now. Make a move or simply be happy with ~80 games

[varoadking]

And? However long hes here is irrelevant.  If you think he'd gonna be as dominant in three years,  you're an idiot. Strasburg will still be hurt. Rendon will be gone. And Zim, if he's here, will be a shell. The time is now. Make a move or simply be happy with ~80 games

You think the window is still open now.  Who's the bigger idiot?

[Greg_SRT]

Why is it assumed Rendon won’t resign. Didn’t he express desire to do so? Something change?

[Slateman]

Why is it assumed Rendon won’t resign. Didn’t he express desire to do so? Something change?

Why would he? The team is going nowhere and hes worth more than Harper at this point.

[Greg_SRT]

Why would he? The team is going nowhere and hes worth more than Harper at this point.

I couldn’t tell you why he would want to. Asking when he has said he doesn’t.

Because iirc, he has spoken about wanting to stay. Very well could have been lip service.

[Slateman]

I couldn’t tell you why he would want to. Asking when he has said he doesn’t.

Because iirc, he has spoken about wanting to stay. Very well could have been lip service.

Virtually every player says that. They're coached to say that by their agent

[DCFan]

...and hes worth more than Harper at this point.

You have got to be kidding me. Rendon will be lucky to get half what Bryce will.

[Mattionals]

Except Realmuto has consistently hit better away from Marlins park. Its not a fluke. He hits better away from there. Last year his Home/Away BABIP splits were very close and he was still a much better hitter away, with a much higher slugging percentage.

He has hit 290/.333/.449   in DC for his career.

Keiboom has zero value to this team other than trade value. He wont be ready next season. At best, hes Rendon's replacement. More than likely he is a ~.275 hitter with some pop. While nice, he isnt going to be enough to get you over the hump. Even if hes as good as Rendon, it won't matter because that simply wont be enough to get the team into the playoffs.

The time is now. You have two years of Max and then this franchise turns into the the 2013-2017 Phillies.

https://www.fishstripes.com/2017/5/12/15414876/marlins-jt-realmuto-living-double-life-home-road-splits

That BABIP away is just too flukey. I personally think that Kieboom has more value to hold onto as a piece in 2020, and hopefully Rendon signs an extension. 2B can be filled via a one year deal on the market for cheap.