2018-2019 Offseason Moves

[NJ Ave]

Probably one or two of those guys will have under 4 ERAs in 2019. Problem is guessing which ones.

There were 19 free agent SP who signed major league deals last offseason. Let's leave out Arrieta and Darvish because I think those are two guys you'd certainly say don't fit the "dump Roark for someone cheaper and/or better" narrative. That leaves 17 guys who signed contracts ranging from Trevor Cahill's 1/$1.25 million to Alex Cobb's 4/$57 million.

I'd say 3 of the 17 fit the description of guy who would have turned out better than Roark - Mike Fiers (1/$6 million, 3.56 ERA in 172 innings), Jhoulys Chacin (2/$15.5 million, 3.50 ERA in 193 innings), and maybe Anibal Sanchez (1/$2.5 million, 2.83 ERA in 137 innings).

It's just incomplete analysis to throw up guys who might be capable of having a slightly lower ERA than Roark, but are not durable and the Nationals have to make up the rest of the starts with guys like Tommy Milone (5.81 ERA), Erick Fedde, (5.54 ERA), Joe Ross (5.06 ERA) and so on.

If you throw together Hellickson with another 90 innings of 5.25 ERA starting pitching to get to Roark's 180 innings, you don't have Hellickson at a 3.45 ERA. You have a whole 4/5 starter with a 4.35 ERA who can't go more than 5 innings a start. That's not an upgrade.

[Slateman]

Oh right - instead of things like Steamer projections, maybe we should take your word for it. Why don't you go pick the best season from each of those guys and we'll assume they'll replicate it this year. 

If you'd rather go from last year - since I assume you tried to pick all the best guys from 2018 - those 8 guys averaged a 3.71 ERA and 120 IP. By all means go an get one of those guys for $6 million and hope you get lucky. But signing guys who had good ERAs in under 100 innings (Hellickson, Miley, Buccholz, and Sanchez) and hoping they hold up and stay productive for an entire season is kind of a joke.

Option A: Pay Roark 10 million and hope we get lucky he will perform like last year.
Option B: Pay someone else 6 million and hope we get lucky

Roark now has two seasons of decline to go with drop in velocity. None of his secondary pitches are good enough to get by without his two seamer.  He's done. He is not worth 10 million dollars when you need that money to sign players that can help you compete in a now very competitive division.

Like I said, if you non-tender him, no one is paying 10 million dollars for him. If we're going to compete for the division or a WC, we need better than Tanner Roark

[NJ Ave]

Roark now has two seasons of decline to go with drop in velocity.

Tanner Roark 2014: 2.85 ERA, avg FBv 91.1
Tanner Roark 2016: 2.83 ERA, avg FBv 92.2
Tanner Roark 2018: 4.34 ERA, avg FBv 91.5

Seems like a major velocity drop and also the main indicator of his success.

[Slateman]

Tanner Roark 2014: 2.85 ERA, avg FBv 91.1
Tanner Roark 2016: 2.83 ERA, avg FBv 92.2
Tanner Roark 2018: 4.34 ERA, avg FBv 91.5

Seems like a major velocity drop and also the main indicator of his success.

2016 two seam average velocity: 92.6
2017 two seam average velocity: 92.1
2018 two seam average velocity: 91.4

Like I said, dude is now declining hard. So unless you're going to magically find the offense the Red Sox had, you're can't go into 2018 with Roark as your 4/5 starter and expect to compete. Not unless he gives you some sort of realistic commitment that he's going to come into ST in shape, and even then, it's not going to help him not give up home runs.

Not worth 10 million. Not when you have some pretty gaping needs elsewhere.

[varoadking]

2016 two seam average velocity: 92.6
2017 two seam average velocity: 92.1
2018 two seam average velocity: 91.4

Like I said, dude is now declining hard. So unless you're going to magically find the offense the Red Sox had, you're can't go into 2018 with Roark as your 4/5 starter and expect to compete. Not unless he gives you some sort of realistic commitment that he's going to come into ST in shape, and even then, it's not going to help him not give up home runs.

Not worth 10 million. Not when you have some pretty gaping needs elsewhere.

Roark has gone to complete crap...but his HR/9 was less than your $25MM #2 starter...and he had better K and BB rates than Stras as well.  His WHIP was 1.28 vs Stras' 1.20. 

He also pitched more than 50 innings more than Stras did.

If Stras is worth $25MM, Roark is clearly worth $10MM...which just tells you how crazy baseball salaries are...

[mitlen]

Roark has gone to complete crap...but his HR/9 was less than your $25MM #2 starter...and he had better K and BB rates than Stras as well.  His WHIP was 1.28 vs Stras' 1.20. 

He also pitched more than 50 innings more than Stras did.

If Stras is worth $25MM, Roark is clearly worth $10MM...which just tells you how crazy baseball salaries are...

I'm not sure Tanner's worth $10M but those are some interesting stats.

[UMDNats]

$10 million a year is not a lot for an established, average SP. He has an ERA+ in the 90s 3 of the last 4 seasons. I'll take that in 2019.

[varoadking]

I'm not sure Tanner's worth $10M but those are some interesting stats.

I'd just as soon see him gone...$10MM is crazy...but replacing him for less is not going to be an easy task unless Rizzo pulls a rabbit out of the minors...

Somehow we are happy to pay Stras more for less...

[Slateman]

Roark has gone to complete crap...but his HR/9 was less than your $25MM #2 starter...and he had better K and BB rates than Stras as well.  His WHIP was 1.28 vs Stras' 1.20. 

He also pitched more than 50 innings more than Stras did.

If Stras is worth $25MM, Roark is clearly worth $10MM...which just tells you how crazy baseball salaries are...

So now Tanner is your comparison to Stras. Guess he wasn't as good as Scherzer?

Strasburg doesn't have a steady decline over the last four seasons.

[varoadking]

So now Tanner is your comparison to Stras. Guess he wasn't as good as Scherzer?

Strasburg doesn't have a steady decline over the last four seasons.

I thought we were talking about value.   What makes Stras worth $25MM as a #2 with his stats and Roark not worth $10MM as a #4/5 with his. 

Also, Roark earned just over $10MM for the past 2 years combined.  Stras earned $50MM...

Not sure either of them is worth it...

[Slateman]

I thought we were talking about value.   What makes Stras worth $25MM as a #2 with his stats and Roark not worth $10MM as a #4/5 with his. 

Also, Roark earned just over $10MM for the past 2 years combined.  Stras earned $50MM...

Not sure either of them is worth it...

Because when Strasburg is healthy, he's a Cy Young candidate. When Roark is healthy, he's a fat freak who posts an ERA over 4 and loses 15 games

[varoadking]

Because when Strasburg is healthy, he's a Cy Young candidate. When Roark is healthy, he's a fat freak who posts an ERA over 4 and loses 15 games

When will that be?

[mitlen]

When will that be?

Kind of what crossed my mind as well.    I'd love to see a full healthy year of Stras.

[Slateman]

When will that be?

Probably never, which is why I wasn't for the deal.

Here's the thing, players get paid based upon two different things:
1. Past performance
2. Potential

Roark's past performance is 4.00+ ERA, double digit losses, and lots of home runs. His potential is basically the same.

Strasburg's past performance is elite. His potential is still elite.

So they are paid accordingly.

Maybe the rest of you didn't notice, but the division got really good, really quickly. The Braves have the deepest farm system in baseball and the most money to spend out of anyone in the division. The Phillies are right behind them with money and one of the best pitching rotations in baseball.

You want to win this division, you gotta add more hitting and more pitching.  10 million to Roark is about 5 million more than he's worth and 5 million less you don't have to give to someone you need.

[Slateman]

Kind of what crossed my mind as well.    I'd love to see a full healthy year of Stras.

Wouldn't we all.

[mitlen]

Wouldn't we all.

Indeed

[Natsinpwc]

Slate successful again in luring is down the rabbit hole. 

[mitlen]

Slate successful again in luring is down the rabbit hole. 

Who is "us" kemosabe?     

[varoadking]

Roark's career ERA is 3.42...Stras' is 3.14. 

Stras' 2019 projected ERA is 3.46...it was 3.74 last year.

How elite is he now if he's projected as essentially a career Roark level pitcher at this point?

Kris Kringle is more likely to come down your chimney next month than St. Stephen is to go a full season without injuries...

[UMDNats]

In 2017 Strasburg made 27 starts and finished 3rd in the Cy Young Award voting. I know everyone likes to crap on him but he literally just had an amazing season. He's dealt with smaller injuries a lot of years but to say he's never pitched a full season is straight up lying.

Not to mention in 2014 he made 34 starts and finished 9th.

[varoadking]

In 2017 Strasburg made 27 starts and finished 3rd in the Cy Young Award voting. I know everyone likes to crap on him but he literally just had an amazing season. He's dealt with smaller injuries a lot of years but to say he's never pitched a full season is straight up lying.

Not to mention in 2014 he made 34 starts and finished 9th.

27 starts is a full season of starts?

Gio finished third in the Cy voting one year as well...and Tanner finished 10th in 2016...

...and I'm talking about Stras injuries going forward...

Anyway...back to the topic at hand...how is Tanner not worth $10MM in today's environment?  We can't even land a 3rd or 4th starter and we want to get rid of a 5th that we arguably can't replace.

[Slateman]

Roark's career ERA is 3.42...Stras' is 3.14. 

Stras' 2019 projected ERA is 3.46...it was 3.74 last year.

How elite is he now if he's projected as essentially a career Roark level pitcher at this point?

Kris Kringle is more likely to come down your chimney next month than St. Stephen is to go a full season without injuries...

Because Strasburg hasn't posted back to back 4.00+ stinkers

[Slateman]

27 starts is a full season of starts?

Gio finished third in the Cy voting one year as well...and Tanner finished 10th in 2016...

...and I'm talking about Stras injuries going forward...

Anyway...back to the topic at hand...how is Tanner not worth $10MM in today's environment?  We can't even land a 3rd or 4th starter and we want to get rid of a 5th that we arguably can't replace.

Literally listed 5+ replacements

[varoadking]

Literally listed 5+ replacements

The general consensus here was that those sucked as well...

[varoadking]

Because Strasburg hasn't posted back to back 4.00+ stinkers

Yet...but it's early...