I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If it makes you feel better, I canceled my FG subscription over this today. And also because they raised the price, but this too.

fwiw, Ben Clemens had another exit velocity article Monday.  This one was on the relative stability of max exit velocity (really, as he defined it, 95th %tile velocity).

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It guarantees all of his 2023 money.

All his 2023 money was going to be guaranteed anyway.

I think the rule is, or used to be, that if the team wins arbitration, the money is guaranteed, but if the player wins, then the team can cut him by sometime in March and only be on the hook for something like 1/5 of the contract.

If that is still the case, then there may have been a message, "look, we'll give you a bit more than our arb offer if you agree to a deal where we lock in our option to keep you at a reasonable price in 2024.  Otherwise, you take us to arbitration and you win, we cut you.  We don't go to arbitration with anyone else.  You asked for a $1 million raise this year.  OK, our option for 2024 is about $1 million over what we are agreeing to this year, but you are going to take $25K over our number  for this year.  Oh, don't dare ask for a buyout."

[welch]

A thoughtful member of WNFF identified Robles as having weaker contact than almost any other MLB regular. Was his weak exit velocity made weaker because he tried to bunt for a hit so often?

[Slateman]

It includes bunts. He had 11 last season.

There are also stats like barrels and hard hit percentage. His bunting doesnt make a significant difference. If he never bunted, he's still be within the 3rd percentile of MLB in EV and hard hit percentage.

[Natsinpwc]

It includes bunts. He had 11 last season.

There are also stats like barrels and hard hit percentage. His bunting doesnt make a significant difference. If he never bunted, he's still be within the 3rd percentile of MLB in EV and hard hit percentage.

His hardest contact is when he gets HBP.

[Slateman]

His hardest contact is when he gets HBP.

So, actually, for Max EV, he was like 59th percentile. So he is capable of hitting the  ball harder than half of baseball, he just doesnt do it very often.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So, actually, for Max EV, he was like 59th percentile. So he is capable of hitting the  ball harder than half of baseball, he just doesnt do it very often.

When your average contact is among the weakest in baseball, and, excluding liners, you're 1:1 in your grounders to flies, that a recipe for poor babip.  As bad as his average is, he kind of deserves worse, but for his speed. You kind of wish he had the 1.5:1 ratio that Meneses has.  Add in a 1:4 BB:K, and it's a recipe for cringe-worthy offense.

[Slateman]

When your average contact is among the weakest in baseball, and, excluding liners, you're 1:1 in your grounders to flies, that a recipe for poor babip.  As bad as his average is, he kind of deserves worse, but for his speed. You kind of wish he had the 1.5:1 ratio that Meneses has.  Add in a 1:4 BB:K, and it's a recipe for cringe-worthy offense.

Yea, I think we can all agree, he's a terrible hitter

[welch]

It includes bunts. He had 11 last season.

There are also stats like barrels and hard hit percentage. His bunting doesnt make a significant difference. If he never bunted, he's still be within the 3rd percentile of MLB in EV and hard hit percentage.

Are you saying that Robles got eleven hits from bunts last season? That sounds about right.

Did he try to bunt for a hit eleven times? That seems low.

I admit: I was trying to imagine a way in which Robles is better than a pathetic hitter, but that's hard.

[imref]

Bowden says that Robles is lazy and is the last guy in the clubhouse in the morning.

[welch]

Bowden says that Robles is lazy and is the last guy in the clubhouse in the morning.

Not surprising.

[Smithian]

Play Thomas and Call in CF. Keep corners open. Even Jake Alu.

[Slateman]

Play Thomas and Call in CF. Keep corners open. Even Jake Alu.

Call sucks. DFA that bum. Between Stone Garrett, Joey Meneses, and Corey Dickerson, we have more than enough Quad A outfielders

[Natsinpwc]

Hope Victor is reading this and sees that fans prefer Alex Call. He should be thoroughly embarrassed.

[welch]

Hope Victor is reading this and sees that fans prefer Alex Call. He should be thoroughly embarrassed.

More likely, nothing seems to embarrass Robles. Not being criticized after he throws to the wrong base, not being benched after he tries to take an extra base and is thrown out, not after hitting .200 year after year, not after being sent to AAA in 2021 to get his head together. He has been in professional baseball for almost a decade, and he still does not learn. Think about his home run celebration that led to him being called a clown, and remember that he then put on a clown nose. 

Notice that Robles hit a smashing .204 in the Dominican Winter League with an OPS of .584. Nothing embarrasses Robles. Unless a miracle happens, Robles is a 5th OF, an 8th inning defensive replacement.

[Mattionals]

More likely, nothing seems to embarrass Robles. Not being criticized after he throws to the wrong base, not being benched after he tries to take an extra base and is thrown out, not after hitting .200 year after year, not after being sent to AAA in 2021 to get his head together. He has been in professional baseball for almost a decade, and he still does not learn. Think about his home run celebration that led to him being called a clown, and remember that he then put on a clown nose. 

Notice that Robles hit a smashing .204 in the Dominican Winter League with an OPS of .584. Nothing embarrasses Robles. Unless a miracle happens, Robles is a 5th OF, an 8th inning defensive replacement.

He is a 5th OF on a AAA team.

[welch]

The latest attempt to make Victor Robles a respectable hitter.

he Washington Nationals’ latest attempt to fix Victor Robles involves a half-deflated blue dodgeball. In the early days of spring training, Robles has kept the ball in his team-issued bag, then stuck it between his right forearm and biceps during batting practice.

Why?

“We have to keep his hands in, have to get him striking the inside of the ball,” hitting coach Darnell Coles said after a session with Robles. “The blue ball is a constant reminder for that. It’s working so far.”

If Robles casts his hands at the baseball — as he too often has in recent years — the blue ball will fall out of his arms during the middle of his swing. That’s bad. But if he doesn’t cast his hands, keeping them closer to his body, the blue ball will stay between his forearm and biceps until toward the end of his swing. That’s good.

During a batting practice session Thursday, Robles, 25, lined a homer to right-center. Watching from near the dugout, Manager Dave Martinez explained how, when Robles casts his hands, it is physically impossible for him to generate power to the opposite field. Maybe he could still get lucky and pull something hard. More likely, though, he would just roll over for a soft grounder or miss the ball entirely.

After Robles finished with a .584 OPS in 2022, the staff suggested he try hitting with the blue ball at home in the Dominican Republic. When Robles arrived at camp, Coles also tweaked the load of his hands, making it so they don’t go straight up when he prepares to swing. Despite years of struggles at the plate, Robles is expected to start the season as the club’s everyday center fielder. A rebuilding team can afford to offer another chance.

“We really had to take a step back with him,” Martinez said of Robles, a former top prospect turned major question mark. “He had to take a step back and try to focus on who he really wants to be. That’s what we’re trying to help him with now.”

I happened to see Robles's numbers in Dominican winter ball this offseason. Either he was practicing with the dodge-ball, or it did not help. On 11 hits, he had one homer, no doubles or triples, batted .204 with a .554 OPS.

Alex Call had two doubles in the other game.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/02/26/nationals-notes-victor-robles/

[catocony]

I'm guessing that from Robles's perspective, he's already hit the lottery.  A World Series ring, millions in signing bonus and payroll.  He's happy with what he has.  Which, coming from the Dominican, is somewhat understandable.  Could he have done a lot more?  Most certainly, but that would require hard work and not just getting by on natural talent.

He's lazy, he's not too smart, and he's not afraid to show it to the world.

[zimm_da_kid]

Robles’ run ends when hassell comes up sometime this year.  Once hassell is up, he’s the CF until one of green, wood, or vaquero overtake him as a better defensive outfielder

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Robles’ run ends when hassell comes up sometime this year.  Once hassell is up, he’s the CF until one of green, wood, or vaquero overtake him as a better defensive outfielder

yes. The only question would be whether they try to limit his exposure to RHP in the meantime if Call / Garrett or someone off the radar has a decent spring against righties.

[Mattionals]

yes. The only question would be whether they try to limit his exposure to RHP in the meantime if Call / Garrett or someone off the radar has a decent spring against righties.

I'd surmise no. I don't think Hassall gets promoted until he can show he can hit RHP.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'd surmise no. I don't think Hassall gets promoted until he can show he can hit RHP.

I meant Robles possibly not facing RHP if he's terrible and Call is good. Hassell will hit righties, but yes, I don't think they call him up just to face righties and to let Robles face lefties.

[Mattionals]

I meant Robles possibly not facing RHP if he's terrible and Call is good. Hassell will hit righties, but yes, I don't think they call him up just to face righties and to let Robles face lefties.

Ahh, my mistake. My guess is that as of right now, the best case scenario is that Hassell develops quickly this season and makes AAA by mid-season. After that he makes a September call up, and hopefully by that point, if Robles had a decent for him year (I've passed on thinking he will put it all together) that he can be flipped at the deadline.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Ahh, my mistake. My guess is that as of right now, the best case scenario is that Hassell develops quickly this season and makes AAA by mid-season. After that he makes a September call up, and hopefully by that point, if Robles had a decent for him year (I've passed on thinking he will put it all together) that he can be flipped at the deadline.

I think a slightly better case might be an August call up after Robles is dealt / waived.

[Natsinpwc]

The way Hassel ended last year I would be happy he can stick Double A.