I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)

[Natsinpwc]

BWAR has him at 1.8 for last season with about 360 at bats. I guess most of that is defense and drawing walks. That’s the most recent season. Just saying he is signed for the year so might as well play him. 

[Slateman]

BWAR has him at 1.8 for last season with about 360 at bats. I guess most of that is defense and drawing walks. That’s the most recent season. Just saying he is signed for the year so might as well play him. 

So I agree with playing, I just dont think he should be the de facto CFer. Given the last three years performance, plus his conflicts with the coaching staff, he needs to produce at the plate to keep the job.

If Garrett/Thomas/Call start off hot, then the coaching staff should be quick to bench Robles

[imref]

So I agree with playing, I just dont think he should be the de facto CFer. Given the last three years performance, plus his conflicts with the coaching staff, he needs to produce at the plate to keep the job.

If Garrett/Thomas/Call start off hot, then the coaching staff should be quick to bench Robles

IIRC there was a time last season when Robles was hardly playing.

[welch]

BWAR has him at 1.8 for last season with about 360 at bats. I guess most of that is defense and drawing walks. That’s the most recent season. Just saying he is signed for the year so might as well play him. 

Look closer. Baseball Ref has Robles at 0.5 offensive WAR. That fits with anyone's observation that Robles hits about as well as a pitcher before the DH. Most seasons, Camilo Pascual had an OPS the same or a shade above Robles. Walter Johnson had a career OPS of .616 on a career average of .235 and a slugging % of .342. Johnson was unusually good, of course, but Robles is unusually bad.

The numbers say that Robles can run down a flyball, cannot hit. That says, clearly, that Robles is nothing more than a 5th outfielder, someone you might use in the 8th inning with a lead, but ought never to be your regular centerfielder. That Robles is controlled through this season means the Nats can carry him as that extra OF, but that he would occupy a 25-man spot that the Nats might want to fill with any of the former-prospects they have accumulated.

Robles is a luxury. If Alex Call or another new guy hits some and plays a competent CF, then Robles has no value.

 

[Slateman]

Look closer. Baseball Ref has Robles at 0.5 offensive WAR. That fits with anyone's observation that Robles hits about as well as a pitcher before the DH. Most seasons, Camilo Pascual had an OPS the same or a shade above Robles. Walter Johnson had a career OPS of .616 on a career average of .235 and a slugging % of .342. Johnson was unusually good, of course, but Robles is unusually bad.

The numbers say that Robles can run down a flyball, cannot hit. That says, clearly, that Robles is nothing more than a 5th outfielder, someone you might use in the 8th inning with a lead, but ought never to be your regular centerfielder. That Robles is controlled through this season means the Nats can carry him as that extra OF, but that he would occupy a 25-man spot that the Nats might want to fill with any of the former-prospects they have accumulated.

Robles is a luxury. If Alex Call or another new guy hits some and plays a competent CF, then Robles has no value.

 

Except you're criminally underrating the number of runs that his defense saves. With the DH being adoptes, multiple competitive teams are willing to take poor offense in CF in exchange for great defense

[Natsinpwc]

The abrbitration numbers also tell you the value MLB and the analytics put on the players. Thomas signed for $2.1 million despite being the better hitter. Robles will get between $2.3 and $2.6 million. If he could hit just a bit he would be a 4 WAR player. CF defense has lots of value. In any event matters not what any of us think. The Lerners are not going to send someone making around $2.5 million to the minors.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Except you're criminally underrating the number of runs that his defense saves. With the DH being adoptes, multiple competitive teams are willing to take poor offense in CF in exchange for great defense

And he's even more valuable on a team with terrible pitching.  Outfielders don't matter in the Fangraphs three true outcomes fantasyland (meaning, Scherzer on the hill), but when you have pitchers giving up line drives and gappers left and right in addition to all the walks, a CF who can go get them and also throw really helps. 

I think people have gotten used to seeing MAT and Robles out there and think that's what normal/average CF play looks like, when that's very far from the truth (except for Beefy Vic 2020 edition).

[Elvir Ovcina]

The abrbitration numbers also tell you the value MLB and the analytics put on the players. Thomas signed for $2.1 million despite being the better hitter. Robles will get between $2.3 and $2.6 million. If he could hit just a bit he would be a 4 WAR player. CF defense has lots of value. In any event matters not what any of us think. The Lerners are not going to send someone making around $2.5 million to the minors.

Not apples to apples though.  Robles is in his second year of arb.  Thomas is in his first.  That's always going to be a gap.  Arb1 players typically earn around 40% of their actual market value; Arb2 around 60%.   Those numbers shift a bit over time, but there's a persistent gap in the valuation between Arb1 and Arb2 that more than covers the gap between Robles' and Thomas' numbers.

[welch]

Except you're criminally underrating the number of runs that his defense saves. With the DH being adoptes, multiple competitive teams are willing to take poor offense in CF in exchange for great defense

Well, no. Remember that Robles can catch a flyball, but too often he throws to the wrong base. Furthermore, he is too-often a crazy base-runner. It looks like he has no baseball-brains. Maybe he gets too excited on the field, and maybe his problem is mostly psychological, but he does not improve. The brainlessness, and his unwillingness to be coached make Robles something of a luxury. If only Minnesota would take Robles for Michael A. Taylor!

It happens I went looking for a weak-hitting defense-first CF, but it was hard to find one like Robles. First that came to mind: Cesar Geronimo, the "good field / no hit" CF for the Reds in the 1970s. Memory told me that the Reds had such a slugging team that they could carry Geronimo. However, he was a much better hitter than I had remembered, so it was only in comparison to guys like Bobby Tolan or Bobby Bonds that Geronimo looked like a light hitter. He was decent, and was a Gold Glover for three seasons. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/geronce01.shtml

Then there is Jim Busby, who fell into the hitting hole after a couple of good seasons in 1953 and 1954.  The Nats traded Busby because he was only hitting around .230 in 1955, and Busby never hit much again. He was a superb fielder, though, and he had to cover CF in Griffith Stadium. (You could put most of Nats Park inside the Griffith Stadium outfield.) Busby was never a regular again, but he outhit Robles. See https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/busbyji01.shtml

Now, if a team like the Yankees wants to trade someone with potential, to trade such a guy for Robles, then that would be a win.

[Slateman]

Well, no. Remember that Robles can catch a flyball, but too often he throws to the wrong base. Furthermore, he is too-often a crazy base-runner. It looks like he has no baseball-brains. Maybe he gets too excited on the field, and maybe his problem is mostly psychological, but he does not improve. The brainlessness, and his unwillingness to be coached make Robles something of a luxury. If only Minnesota would take Robles for Michael A. Taylor!

It happens I went looking for a weak-hitting defense-first CF, but it was hard to find one like Robles. First that came to mind: Cesar Geronimo, the "good field / no hit" CF for the Reds in the 1970s. Memory told me that the Reds had such a slugging team that they could carry Geronimo. However, he was a much better hitter than I had remembered, so it was only in comparison to guys like Bobby Tolan or Bobby Bonds that Geronimo looked like a light hitter. He was decent, and was a Gold Glover for three seasons. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/geronce01.shtml

Then there is Jim Busby, who fell into the hitting hole after a couple of good seasons in 1953 and 1954.  The Nats traded Busby because he was only hitting around .230 in 1955, and Busby never hit much again. He was a superb fielder, though, and he had to cover CF in Griffith Stadium. (You could put most of Nats Park inside the Griffith Stadium outfield.) Busby was never a regular again, but he outhit Robles. See https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/busbyji01.shtml

Now, if a team like the Yankees wants to trade someone with potential, to trade such a guy for Robles, then that would be a win.

Every measure of his defense is that he is an elite defender in CF, even with the "throws to the wrong base"

You must not have looked very hard. There are literally two weak hitting, defense first CFers in the AL Central right now.

[Natsinpwc]

Every measure of his defense is that he is an elite defender in CF, even with the "throws to the wrong base"

You must not have looked very hard. There are literally two weak hitting, defense first CFers in the AL Central right now.

Phillies dealt for Marsh who fits that definition also. Just so they had a decent defensive CF. Gave up a top catcher prospect also.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The abrbitration numbers also tell you the value MLB and the analytics put on the players. Thomas signed for $2.1 million despite being the better hitter. Robles will get between $2.3 and $2.6 million. If he could hit just a bit he would be a 4 WAR player. CF defense has lots of value. In any event matters not what any of us think. The Lerners are not going to send someone making around $2.5 million to the minors.

number of times through arb is a big factor in the amount you get.  The fact that Thomas settled at $2.1 million his first year eligible for arb and that this is Robles's 2nd time through and they are arguing about a max of $2.6 million is kind of an indication of the opposite of what you are arguing. 

[imref]

do we really think Rizzo wasn't shopping Robles around last year?

[Elvir Ovcina]

JCA put me on ignore after my latest Fangraphs wisecrack, it seems.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

JCA put me on ignore after my latest Fangraphs wisecrack, it seems.

same point, but I did it with a much more convincing hand wave.

[Elvir Ovcina]

same point, but I did it with a much more convincing hand wave.

I studied under QE2, so I'm clearly out of date with my royal wave.  I'll just call you Kate and we'll call it even.

No, you do not have a choice in this.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I studied under QE2, so I'm clearly out of date with my royal wave.  I'll just call you Kate and we'll call it even.

No, you do not have a choice in this.

You clearly lack the Markle Sparkle.

[Natsinpwc]

number of times through arb is a big factor in the amount you get.  The fact that Thomas settled at $2.1 million his first year eligible for arb and that this is Robles's 2nd time through and they are arguing about a max of $2.6 million is kind of an indication of the opposite of what you are arguing.

Fair enough. Wake me up when Hassel arrives.

[catocony]

With the deal avoiding arbitration today plus the option for next year, for a fairly modest contract, I think its safe to say that Nats leadership views Robles as a caretaker in center until someone comes along to take his spot.  That's how I view him at this point too. 

[imref]

Dougherty:

In some pre-spring-training bookkeeping, the Washington Nationals and Victor Robles have settled on a $2.325 million salary for 2023, meaning the team and center fielder will not go to an arbitration hearing. While announcing this Monday afternoon, the Nationals also noted that Robles and the team have agreed on a club option for 2024, which would pay him $3.3 million if exercised, according to a person familiar with the terms.

[Natsinpwc]

Yes. $2.3 million this year and club option of $3.3 million next year.

Let the weeping and gnashing of the teeth begin. Need a Victor bingo card.

Throw to the wrong base.
Baserunning mistake.
Bunt with 2 strikes.
Etc.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Apparently, there's no buyout for next year's option.  Basically, the Nats can get him for $3.3 million if he's worth it, go to arb if they think the award will be less, or just cut him if Hassell has won the job.  In effect, it is a cap on his  2024 earnings.

https://apnews.com/article/mlb-sports-washington-nationals-victor-robles-2b69a7fd564d57d09b1b02a14755a009

[blue911]

Apparently, there's no buyout for next year's option.  Basically, the Nats can get him for $3.3 million if he's worth it, go to arb if they think the award will be less, or just cut him if Hassell has won the job.  In effect, it is a cap on his  2024 earnings.

https://apnews.com/article/mlb-sports-washington-nationals-victor-robles-2b69a7fd564d57d09b1b02a14755a009

It guarantees all of his 2023 money.

[Slateman]

It guarantees all of his 2023 money.

All his 2023 money was going to be guaranteed anyway.

[Slateman]

I submitted an application for the open fangraphs writer position back in June.  My sample article I wrote was called “what’s up with victor robles”. I discussed at length his crappy exit velocities.  This guy got the job in September and got this article idea from his boss.  I wonder how many article ideas they pull from application essays

If it makes you feel better, I canceled my FG subscription over this today. And also because they raised the price, but this too.