Author Topic: I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)  (Read 40932 times)

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Offline Duke of Earl

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As a kid I was taught to look at the coaches.  As a coach I taught players to look at the coaches.  And yet, it has always seemed to me that MLB  players, many of them anyway,  forget that lesson once they make it to the majors.  Robles isn't alone. (Not saying he's a good baserunner. He' terrible.)

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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I think some of the folks on here might need to watch some other teams and pay attention to what they have in CF in order to get a baseline on Robles' actual skill level on defense. 

MAT is not an appropriate baseline.  MAT won a Gold Glove last year, which he deserved.  A roughly average MLB CF is Brandon Nimmo.  Robles is a much, much better outfielder than Brandon Nimmo.

Just go down the list of box scores from last night.  How many of those guys would you rather play in CF just for defense than Robles?  Honestly, like maybe 4 or 5?


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I think I went into the season saying that if Robles could manage a .245 / .320 / .370 line, he'd be an acceptable CF due to his defense.  Unfortunately, he can hit well enough to be pathetic.

Offline welch

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Robles is a pathetic hitter. OPS less than .600, and has about a dozen walks all year. Eddie Yost's numbers make Robles a joke (Yost: Washington's leadoff hitter for twelve seasons, lifetime OBP of .394) He is a dazzling glove-man with a strong arm who often makes brainless throws.

Robles is a 5th OF. If the team could carry five outfielders, Robles would be the guy the Nats put in for defense in the 8th and 9th.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Robles is a pathetic hitter. OPS less than .600, and has about a dozen walks all year. Eddie Yost's numbers make Robles a joke (Yost: Washington's leadoff hitter for twelve seasons, lifetime OBP of .394) He is a dazzling glove-man with a strong arm who often makes brainless throws.

Robles is a 5th OF. If the team could carry five outfielders, Robles would be the guy the Nats put in for defense in the 8th and 9th.
honestly at this point I can't disagree with anything you said. We say Thomas is a 4th of. Robles is a 5th

Offline Dave in Fairfax

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Practically the entire roster is 5th outfielders, pinch hitters, late-inning defensive replacements, number 5 starters and mop-up relievers.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Still out of the lineup tonight.  Reports are his neck is still bothering him and he's day to day.  Hasn't played since last Wednesday.

Offline Slateman

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Didnt even know he was hurt? Is this gonna be the offseason story on him? A series of minor injuries?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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They said something about his neck at the start of the Phillies series but either this is close hold or an excuse

Offline welch

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It was said that he woke up with a stiff neck. That was the story the first time he was scratched. So far, the OF of Call, Thomas, and Joey M or Palacios has been competent in fielding. They have hit better than having Robles in CF.

Offline Slateman

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/steven-kwan-geraldo-perdomo-and-the-victor-robles-problem/

Vic is now so notoriously a weak hitter that he's now being used as an exemplar for deceptive rookie year offense with weak underlying results.  Specifically, the article discusses how Vic had decent hitting numbers his rookie year, but his underlying weak contact numbers were more predictive of what he would become.  The article then discusses whether Kwan and Perdomo will likely suffer the same fate. 

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You might not remember the days when Victor Robles was a star prospect. After short, impressive stints in 2017 and ’18, he had a breakout season in 2019, putting up a 92 wRC+ and 3.5 WAR, and finishing sixth in NL Rookie of the Year voting. ZiPS projected him for 3.3 WAR in 2020. If he could take the next step offensively, he’d be a star; if his offense remained just a bit below average, he’d still be a very productive center fielder. Instead, he turned in three straight seasons with a wRC+ under 70. Here are the Statcast gearboxes for his rookie season and 2022:

[graph from statcast showing Vic's 2017-19 offense]

There’s a whole lot of blue in the top two rows. Plate discipline was the concern when Robles was first called up, and that was certainly an issue, but the lack of power stands out much more. Although his max exit velocity indicates that he has the capacity to hit the ball hard, Robles’ average exit velocity has been in the first percentile in each of his big league seasons, and his hard-hit rate has never been better than fifth percentile. The Victor Robles Problem is a question: Can a player who didn’t hit the ball hard as a rookie ever turn into a good hitter?
..;
EV stats and wRC+ have a similar correlation even after just 40 BIP, but EV stats improve more dramatically as the sample gets larger. If you want to know how well a rookie will hit in the future, you might be better off ignoring how good they are now and looking solely at how hard they hit the ball. Again, this might not surprise you, but it does illustrate the stickiness of EV and hard-hit rate, and the extent to which they affect wRC+ over a longer sample.

There are a few exceptions, the most prominent of which is Jose Ramirez, but the author suggests that very young call ups who are up more or less due to outstanding D may be a source of exceptions to the general rule. Unfortunately for us, Vic followed the general rule rather than the exception.

Offline Smithian

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He shouldn’t be on the roster next year unless the goal is to tank, which it may be.

Offline welch

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Robles can make spectacular catches in CF...and he will throw to the wrong base. He cannot hit. If he gets on base, he is a dumb base-runner. One of the worst Washington players ever to hold a starting job.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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I submitted an application for the open fangraphs writer position back in June.  My sample article I wrote was called “what’s up with victor robles”. I discussed at length his crappy exit velocities.  This guy got the job in September and got this article idea from his boss.  I wonder how many article ideas they pull from application essays

Offline Chelsea_Phil

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I submitted an application for the open fangraphs writer position back in June.  My sample article I wrote was called “what’s up with victor robles”. I discussed at length his crappy exit velocities.  This guy got the job in September and got this article idea from his boss.  I wonder how many article ideas they pull from application essays

You hear it all the time about movie scripts submitted to big movie houses by third parties..  Sorry to hear this happened to you.

Online aspenbubba

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I submitted an application for the open fangraphs writer position back in June.  My sample article I wrote was called “what’s up with victor robles”. I discussed at length his crappy exit velocities.  This guy got the job in September and got this article idea from his boss.  I wonder how many article ideas they pull from application essays
Weighing in on this I have always wondered if the hot topics on this site were read and used for articles by some of the beat writers, including my favorite,  in years past. I may have posted something about it years ago.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Weighing in on this I have always wondered if the hot topics on this site were read and used for articles by some of the beat writers, including my favorite,  in years past. I may have posted something about it years ago.
if that were the case, then Slateman is really Chelsea Janes.

Offline Slateman

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if that were the case, then Slateman is really Chelsea Janes.
Please. I am definitely that politico wannabe

Offline zimm_da_kid

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You hear it all the time about movie scripts submitted to big movie houses by third parties..  Sorry to hear this happened to you.

To be fair they did expand on it by using it as a predictive tool for regression.  I’m a little hacked off but also kind of flattered my line of thinking was worth pursuing for them. 

The title of the article peeves me though.  Mine was “what’s up with victor robles” and theirs is “the victor Robles problem”.  And where he credits his boss for the idea for the article.  I bet the other part, comparing kwan  and perdomo was another application article that they smooshed together with mine

Online Natsinpwc

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To be fair they did expand on it by using it as a predictive tool for regression.  I’m a little hacked off but also kind of flattered my line of thinking was worth pursuing for them. 

The title of the article peeves me though.  Mine was “what’s up with victor robles” and theirs is “the victor Robles problem”.  And where he credits his boss for the idea for the article.  I bet the other part, comparing kwan  and perdomo was another application article that they smooshed together with mine
Get a lawyer to send them a letter and scare them a bit. At least it might stop the guy from doing it again.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/01/17/victor-robles-nationals-offseason-analysis/

Mentions the exchanged arbitration figures ($2.3 million vs. $2.6 million), but the focus is more on disagreements with Davey and Rizzo on his attitude and lack of performance.  Starts with the clown nose tee shirts, how it ticked off the coaches and Davey:
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“Do you notice that all of your teammates are in red and you’re in a shirt with your face on it?” one coach asked. Robles, 25, didn’t answer. He just disappeared down the tunnel and reemerged a few minutes later in the correct clothes.

Publicly, Manager Dave Martinez had immediately chastised Robles for sporting the clown nose, saying that was “not who we are.” (The Nationals were 32-65 at the time and the joke did earn Robles an Instagram shout out from LeBron James.) And privately, the manager was unhappy with the T-shirts, which Robles and many of his teammates wore for weeks.

then discusses the mutual disagreement about his performance:

Quote
The team is unhappy with the player’s performance — and in some cases, how he has comported himself as its longest-tenured guy after Stephen Strasburg. The player, in turn, does not agree with the team’s evaluation of him. None of it feels like a good jumping off point for a needed bounce-back season.

“Well he’s at a point where you’re not a prospect anymore, you’re a big leaguer and you have to …” Mike Rizzo said at the general managers’ meetings in November, his point trailing off there. “ … this is a performance business and you have to perform.”

While there's bad blood, the team's brain trust seems to feel that, because Ruiz can hit, Robles can be carried as the glove guy in an important defensive position rather then the typical glove first catcher a lot of teams have if he just improves a bit with the bat.

Offline Slateman

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He needs a change of scenery. To be honest, this coaching staff has no real standing to be pushing changes to hitters. Guys are coming here and getting better. And after the article where they basically told Garcia to just swing like crazy, it seems pretty obvious that the hitting coaches don't have any idea how to fix/correct swings.

Nats now have guys who can play a capable CF if needed. Robles either performs or they need to cut bait.

Offline welch

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Victor Robles, who has had a six-year tryout with the Washington Nationals...

It is hard to understand how a team like the Nats, with a weak-hitting lineup, can start Robles. He is an 8th-inning defensive replacement who can run down fly balls but who might then throw to the wrong base.

Offline Slateman

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Victor Robles, who has had a six-year tryout with the Washington Nationals...

It is hard to understand how a team like the Nats, with a weak-hitting lineup, can start Robles. He is an 8th-inning defensive replacement who can run down fly balls but who might then throw to the wrong base.

Because of the scouting talent. People like to forget but Robles was the "untouchable" prospect, while Soto had a 55 grade hit tool. Robles was getting comparisons to Lorenzo Cain and Andrew McCutcheon. So, yea, guys like that get a lot of chances.