I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)

[Slateman]

Victor Robles is capable of decent stretches.

But this team would have more wins right now with boring Andrew Stevenson struggling at the plate while playing an underwhelming but error free CF and on the basepaths taking the extra base when possible but not running into outs.

Either way, I dont think it would matter

[Elvir Ovcina]

Victor Robles is capable of decent stretches.

But this team would have more wins right now with boring Andrew Stevenson struggling at the plate while playing an underwhelming but error free CF and on the basepaths taking the extra base when possible but not running into outs.

I think you underestimate the number of extra bases people would take on Stevenson.  He doesn't have enough arm to play CF regularly.  That number would be far larger than the number of Robles baserunning blunders.

[welch]

I think you underestimate the number of extra bases people would take on Stevenson.  He doesn't have enough arm to play CF regularly.  That number would be far larger than the number of Robles baserunning blunders.

What if we add in the number of extra bases Robles gives by throwing to the wrong base? By over-throwing the cutoff man, throwing home ten steps behind the runner, and letting the batter take second?

Robles has not improved in anything. He seems unteachable.

Perhaps Rizzo and Davey are given Robles full-time starts in CF, his last chance to sink or swim as someone mentioned above. 

[Slateman]

What if we add in the number of extra bases Robles gives by throwing to the wrong base? By over-throwing the cutoff man, throwing home ten steps behind the runner, and letting the batter take second?

Robles has not improved in anything. He seems unteachable.

Perhaps Rizzo and Davey are given Robles full-time starts in CF, his last chance to sink or swim as someone mentioned above. 

Robles ability to chase down balls in the gap easily compensates for that

[Natsinpwc]

Robles ability to chase down balls in the gap easily compensates for that

Some truth in that. But just some

http://www.fieldingbible.com/drsleaderboard

[welch]

Some truth in that. But just some

http://www.fieldingbible.com/drsleaderboard

Maybe I mis-read the list, but it says that Robles has saved three runs this season in 722 innings. That puts Robes far down the list...

[Slateman]

Maybe I mis-read the list, but it says that Robles has saved three runs this season in 722 innings. That puts Robes far down the list...

Puts him 5th among CFers. He's literally in the 75 percentile of his position.

[welch]

Puts him 5th among CFers. He's literally in the 75 percentile of his position.

Where is Michael A. Taylor? I count MAT as 9th among everybody, with 13 TRS.

[Slateman]

Where is Michael A. Taylor?

At the top. And? Who here wanted to give Taylor a two year, 9 million dollar deal?

[Smithian]

Victor Robles is capable of decent stretches.

But this team would have more wins right now with boring Andrew Stevenson struggling at the plate while playing an underwhelming but error free CF and on the basepaths taking the extra base when possible but not running into outs.

Bump.

[Natsinpwc]

Bump.

Oh cmon. Victor Robles is 1.2 WAR this year per BR. Are you guys saying that Andrew Stevenson is a 3 or 4 WAR player? What a joke.

[Slateman]

Oh cmon. Victor Robles is 1.2 WAR this year per BR. Are you guys saying that Andrew Stevenson is a 3 or 4 WAR player? What a joke.

Thats not how WAR works . . .

[Natsinpwc]

Thats not how WAR works . . .

Yea it does. It’s wins above replacement. Robles is 1 win this year. Stevenson is basically a replacement player.

[Smithian]

Oh cmon. Victor Robles is 1.2 WAR this year per BR. Are you guys saying that Andrew Stevenson is a 3 or 4 WAR player? What a joke.

dWAR isn't perfect, which is buoying him. I can use my eyes and see his F ups are constant.

I generally like WAR but sometime it just doesn't make sense. In this case, it doesn't.

[Natsinpwc]

dWAR isn't perfect, which is buoying him. I can use my eyes and see his F ups are constant.

I generally like WAR but sometime it just doesn't make sense. In this case, it doesn't.

Because you are looking for the mess ups and ignoring all the balls he tracks down. 

Fangraphs has him at 0.5.  But the fact remains is that Stevenson is not good.  He would not have the team with more wins.  That's just silly. 

[Elvir Ovcina]

What if we add in the number of extra bases Robles gives by throwing to the wrong base?

It makes it a little closer, but it's not like Stevenson is God's gift to mental acuity in the OF either.  Same comment for Thomas, who threw ball home last night when he had no chance at the runner, and only bad-team baserunning meant the hitter didn't go to second. 

And like Slate said, those doubles Robles runs down in the gaps (that Stevenson and his noodle turn into triples) make up for a lot. 

[imref]

It makes it a little closer, but it's not like Stevenson is God's gift to mental acuity in the OF either.  Same comment for Thomas, who threw ball home last night when he had no chance at the runner, and only bad-team baserunning meant the hitter didn't go to second. 

And like Slate said, those doubles Robles runs down in the gaps (that Stevenson and his noodle turn into triples) make up for a lot. 

Definitely a sad commentary on the state of our upper level minor league system when we're debating Robles vs Stevenson.

Has anyone noticed how brutal Fransden has been as of late on Robles? He's constantly pointing out that Robles keeps looking back while running rather than looking at his coaches.

[Duke of Earl]

Yea it does. It’s wins above replacement. Robles is 1 win this year. Stevenson is basically a replacement player.

If you believe in the abstract WAR model, if the sum total WAR for a team for an entire season is zero, the team wins 54 games. Essentially the number of team wins should equal 54 plus total WAR  (The number, 54,  varies from year to year and is set by the WAR lords.)  Nats are on pace to win 53.6 games, so their total WAR would be negative.  Robles has 1 WAR, so that's something.

 Again,  that's if you believe in the abstract WAR model.  I don't.

Most of all, I don't understand why Robles is batting leadoff. The most fundamental rule of batting order is to leadoff with a guy who gets on base.  You want an OBP of at least .350.  Batting a guy leadoff with an OBP less than .300 is unforgivable.  It just illustrates how little baseball intelligence Dave Martinez has.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Definitely a sad commentary on the state of our upper level minor league system when we're debating Robles vs Stevenson.

Has anyone noticed how brutal Fransden has been as of late on Robles? He's constantly pointing out that Robles keeps looking back while running rather than looking at his coaches.

Yeah, it was pretty apparent yesterday on the ball he scored on (don't remember whether it was a hit or a sac fly).  He was right, though: there's no reason to be looking at the ball, even if you're just deciding whether to slide or not.  That's what the on-deck guy is standing there for.

If you believe in the abstract WAR model, if the sum total WAR for a team for an entire season is zero, the team wins 54 games. Essentially the number of team wins should equal 54 plus total WAR  (The number, 54,  varies from year to year and is set by the WAR lords.)  Nats are on pace to win 53.6 games, so their total WAR would be negative.  Robles has 1 WAR, so that's something.

 Again,  that's if you believe in the abstract WAR model.  I don't.

Most of all, I don't understand why Robles is batting leadoff. The most fundamental rule of batting order is to leadoff with a guy who gets on base.  You want an OBP of at least .350.  Batting a guy leadoff with an OBP less than .300 is unforgivable.  It just illustrates how little baseball intelligence Dave Martinez has.

Well, the other options aren't exactly excellent.  They have nobody with a decent sample size anywhere close to .350.  The other most realistic option is Cesar Hernandez, who's barely over .300 himself and is a free agent.  Might as well give a couple extra PAs to a guy who's going to be here next year.  I'd probably get Abrams some run up there, but beyond that I don't have much problem with Robles.  All the options are terrible.

[Natsinpwc]

If you believe in the abstract WAR model, if the sum total WAR for a team for an entire season is zero, the team wins 54 games. Essentially the number of team wins should equal 54 plus total WAR  (The number, 54,  varies from year to year and is set by the WAR lords.)  Nats are on pace to win 53.6 games, so their total WAR would be negative.  Robles has 1 WAR, so that's something.

 Again,  that's if you believe in the abstract WAR model.  I don't.

Most of all, I don't understand why Robles is batting leadoff. The most fundamental rule of batting order is to leadoff with a guy who gets on base.  You want an OBP of at least .350.  Batting a guy leadoff with an OBP less than .300 is unforgivable.  It just illustrates how little baseball intelligence Dave Martinez has.

He's 0.5 WAR or 1 WAR because of his defense.  I'm not defending him and have no idea why he is leading off.  Just trying to say thinking Stevenson would be better makes no sense on his actual performance over the years. 

[Smithian]

Because you are looking for the mess ups and ignoring all the balls he tracks down. 

Fangraphs has him at 0.5.  But the fact remains is that Stevenson is not good.  He would not have the team with more wins.  That's just silly. 

We will have to agree to disagree. I may just be emotional on this one, but I can't come around to believing Robles is right choice for this team. I no longer would even trust him as a defensive sub.

[Smithian]

Definitely a sad commentary on the state of our upper level minor league system when we're debating Robles vs Stevenson.

Has anyone noticed how brutal Fransden has been as of late on Robles? He's constantly pointing out that Robles keeps looking back while running rather than looking at his coaches.

Frandsen has been rightfully getting on the entire team for that.

This club is the worst baserunning team in the majors by a mile and near the worst defensive one. The fundamentals are a disaster.

[Natsinpwc]

We will have to agree to disagree. I may just be emotional on this one, but I can't come around to believing Robles is right choice for this team. I no longer would even trust him as a defensive sub.

I don't think we disagree about Robles. The team does not have an adequate replacements.  Not Stevenson.  Not Thomas.  Team was going to be bad anyway so no real harm in letting him have this year.  I would cut bait after the season. 

[Natsinpwc]

Frandsen has been rightfully getting on the entire team for that.

This club is the worst baserunning team in the majors by a mile and near the worst defensive one. The fundamentals are a disaster.

Luckily we will have the manager and probably the same coaching staff next year!

[Elvir Ovcina]

We will have to agree to disagree. I may just be emotional on this one, but I can't come around to believing Robles is right choice for this team. I no longer would even trust him as a defensive sub.

He's a frustratingly idiotic player both on offense and defense.  He's not a long term solution unless he hits more, but only a little bit more would make a difference.  He's a legitimately good outfielder, though, despite the brain farts. He runs down balls in both gaps, also covers everything coming in, and has the best arm on the team by a large amount even if he sometimes uses it unwisely.