Author Topic: I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)  (Read 11573 times)

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Offline Slateman

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obp after today is .350.  He's just hitting singles now, but he's cut back on Ks and getting on (2 ks, 9 times on base in his last 20 PAs).  Small sample, but not the best time to complain.  I admire Welch's consistency. :)
He's OPSing under .600

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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He's OPSing under .600
sure, the XBH aren't there.  And in the field, today's drop . . . well, let's say it was the wind. That said, I'm not going to pull the plug yet.  I'll give him a 1/4 of a season, especially when he seems to have improved his batting approach. Results aren't there in terms of average yet, but if he keeps making contact, he has too much speed for hits not to start coming.

Offline Slateman

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sure, the XBH aren't there.  And in the field, today's drop . . . well, let's say it was the wind. That said, I'm not going to pull the plug yet.  I'll give him a 1/4 of a season, especially when he seems to have improved his batting approach. Results aren't there in terms of average yet, but if he keeps making contact, he has too much speed for hits not to start coming.
So .... he's not hitting for average, he's not hitting for power, he's not stealing bases, and his defense is not elite.

Offline varoadking

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Andy should be our regular CF'er once Juan is back...

Offline Smithian

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I’m a Robles defender.

But he is coming up on arbitration at a time when speed and D center fielders are a dime a dozen. I’m not certain his value if he doesn’t start producing better at plate.

Offline Slateman

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When does the minor league season start?

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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When does the minor league season start?

May 4.

Offline Slateman

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May 4.
I'd say Robles and Stevenson get to start until the minor league season starts.

Offline Slateman

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I think Miami wanted Robles and another prospect, a guy named Juan Soto.
Maybe, but the story goes that Rizzo hung uo when Robles was mentioned

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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So .... he's not hitting for average, he's not hitting for power, he's not stealing bases, and his defense is not elite.
but he's getting on base, and I think today's drop was a freak thing. 

The BABIP is also freaky low - .289 for a guy with speed.  Looking at his batted ball profile relative to 2019, it looks like he's hitting more balls in the air (and they are liners, mostly), but the contact is softer.  https://www.fangraphs.com/players/victor-robles/18363/stats?position=OF

Offline madj55

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obp after today is .350.  He's just hitting singles now, but he's cut back on Ks and getting on (2 ks, 9 times on base in his last 20 PAs).  Small sample, but not the best time to complain.  I admire Welch's consistency. :)
I’m a Robles fan, and it’d be one thing if he were hitting the singles hard - but he makes some of the softest contact in the league. If he plays like this for the duration of the year I don’t see how we aren’t looking for another CF again.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/victor-robles-645302?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I'd say Robles and Stevenson get to start until the minor league season starts.
Soto can be back as soon as 4/30, I think.  Hernandez goes down, most likely.  After that, what do you do?  Add Parra to the roster?  Pick up an unsigned OF?  There's not much OF depth.  Robles needs to play every day somewhere.  But yes, 5/4 isn't far from 1/4 of the season I was talking about.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I’m a Robles fan, and it’d be one thing if he were hitting the singles hard - but he makes some of the softest contact in the league. If he plays like this for the duration of the year I don’t see how we aren’t looking for another CF again.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/victor-robles-645302?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
yes, I picked up on that in reply a minute before you.  It's the quality of the contact that is disappointing.  OTOH, his K rate is way down and his BB rate is way up.  For most folks, that's progress.  Maybe he needs to stop trying for loft?  He's fast enough that groundballs are trouble for fielders, and maybe that turns his liners into true hard hit balls.

Offline Slateman

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but he's getting on base, and I think today's drop was a freak thing. 

The BABIP is also freaky low - .289 for a guy with speed.  Looking at his batted ball profile relative to 2019, it looks like he's hitting more balls in the air (and they are liners, mostly), but the contact is softer.  https://www.fangraphs.com/players/victor-robles/18363/stats?position=OF
His career BABIP is .307, so thats not that low. His 2019 mark was .310, so not that far off.

He wasnt that good a hitter in 2019, but it was fine because his defense was superb. Since then, he's only regressed.

Offline UMDNats

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robles makes 0 hard contact anymore and hasn't for a while. just about OUT on him as long term CF

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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His career BABIP is .307, so thats not that low. His 2019 mark was .310, so not that far off.

He wasnt that good a hitter in 2019, but it was fine because his defense was superb. Since then, he's only regressed.
yes, if you look at the baseball savant page Madj55 linked to as well as the FG page, in some ways, some of his x stats (xwOBA, xBA) are better or equal to 2019, but he really does not hit things hard for a guy with supposedly a good hit tool.  And a .229 xBA is not good. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I still like MAT. Hits better and plays better defense. Fast...might be a smarter base-runner. Yes, Taylor's hitting has fallen back to about .275 and .800 OPS, roughly his good 2017 season. For now, Stevenson should start.

Thinking back, I don't remember that Robles fought for and won the starting CF job. My memory -- not entirely trustworthy -- is that Robles was given the starting job.
I think what cost MAT his starting position was his 2018 after his 2017.  2017 looked like he had clicked with Dusty, but he reverted to 2015/2016 levels (.230 AVG with mediocre power).  I think in 2018, Robles was ticketed to be the first OF called up,  but was hurt when they needed an OF early in the year, and Soto was called up.  Robles got to play late in the year.  More or less, Taylor wasn't playing well enough to keep them from trying the hot prospect when he was healthy.  I don't recall if they split time or it was all Robles at that point. 

Robles's offensive numbers were actually very good in 2018 over a small sample - .288 / .348 / .525, with good contact (18% Ks, 35% hard contact) in 66 PAs, so that was good enough to make him the presumptive CF going into 2019.  He showed adequate offense and great defense that year, which more or less doomed Taylor here.  Recall Taylor was sent down in 2019 and kept down once Parra was acquired? 

Offensively, there were big warning flags for Robles in 2019 in terms of strikeouts and drops in hard contact that I think were ignored given facially acceptable good average (.255), OPS (.745), steals (28), and exceptional defense.  In 2020 and 2021 so far, many of those warning flags turned into a reality that arguably is worse than the contact rates project to.  The contact is ridiculously soft, but he's had a huge spike in BBs and a drop in Ks so far. Meanwhile, Taylor is back to 2017 levels. 

Offline nfotiu

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It's always dicey to put a still developing player in the 8th spot in the NL.   He's not going to be getting a lot of opportunities to make strong contact.   He'll spend most of his plate appearances taking walks and trying to hit the occasional mistake.  It seems acceptable to have him be the #8 guy for now.   It's better to have a speedy guy there than a catcher.   It's easier to bunt him over, and has a better chance of scoring when the top of the lineup comes up.

He's just had the two defensive miscues hasn't he?   The one lost in the sun, and the weird, lazy looking play where he ran by the one hopper?   He's had some pretty great throws and I still think he's probably an elite defender.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I honestly think he may benefit from a sports psychologist.  Not to be talking too much out of my field, but his mistakes seem to be from over-intensity and trying too hard.  I think that goes for his baserunning, for his not claiming flies when a vet like Schwarber calls him off, for his bulking up last year, and some other things.  My impression is he's quiet[ certainly not as comfortable in English as Soto.  Add in a change in the clubhouse from 2019 (no Parra, no Guerra, no Sanchez to loosen things up), and I get the impression he's not comfortable.

Offline rileyn

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The thing is, from all reports Robles is very outgoing and fun-loving.  He has been a starter here long enough to feel comfortable in this clubhouse no matter who else is in there. Stop with the excuses - he needs to be better or we will struggle to finish .500.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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The thing is, from all reports Robles is very outgoing and fun-loving.
Maybe I'm wrong and heard the opposite. 

Offline welch

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Can Yadiel Hernandez play CF? Or have a CF platoon of Stevenson and Robles, and maybe a LF platoon of Hernandez and Schwarber?

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Last seven games: .333   .400   .444   

Offline RobDibblesGhost

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Count me in the Robles is a Bust crowd.

Offline Air Desmond

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Robles is Milledge with less pop and better defense.