I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)

[Slateman]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CespedesBBQ/status/1336122807890178050

Doesnt look like he heeded Martinez advice on losing weight

[Natsinpwc]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CespedesBBQ/status/1336122807890178050

Doesnt look like he heeded Martinez advice on losing weight

He has the power baby.

[Slateman]

He has the power baby.

Oh yea, when facing American high school and junior level pitching, sure.

[Elvir Ovcina]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CespedesBBQ/status/1336122807890178050

Doesnt look like he heeded Martinez advice on losing weight

Your 2021 opening day 1B, everyone. 

[UMDNats]

Big Dick Vic

[imref]

.244  / .352 / .422 , 2 HR so far in winter ball. in 12 games.

[welch]

.244  / .352 / .422 , 2 HR so far in winter ball. in 12 games.

Consider what the Nats lost when MAT was sent away. Is Robles coachable? A knucklehead?

[DCFan]

Is Robles coachable? A knucklehead?

I don't know if he's figured it out yet that he's no longer a prime 5 tool prospect and has settled comfortably into the average, run of the mill outfielder category.

[imref]

Robles is a daddy!

[Smithian]

I'm not holding 2020 against anyone.

If 2019 Robles is his ceiling, is that a bad thing? Not every stud prospect will flourish like Harper, Rendon, and Soto. A lot of teams would be happy with Turner or Soto outcomes, we've just grown accustomed to star prospects becoming superstars.

[imref]

I'm not holding 2020 against anyone.

If 2019 Robles is his ceiling, is that a bad thing? Not every stud prospect will flourish like Harper, Rendon, and Soto. A lot of teams would be happy with Turner or Soto outcomes, we've just grown accustomed to star prospects becoming superstars.

It's a bad thing in that the expectations for him a couple of years ago were that he'd be a five-tool top elite-level CF.

[Smithian]

It's a bad thing in that the expectations for him a couple of years ago were that he'd be a five-tool top elite-level CF.

You can build a winning team with a stud defensive CF who doesn't hurt you in the lineup. It isn't like he is a bust.

[DCFan]

It's a bad thing in that the expectations for him a couple of years ago were that he'd be a five-tool top elite-level CF.

And what most have forgotten is that way back when, Robles was the top prospect with Soto #2. When we needed to call up an outfielder it was only because Robles was injured at the time that they went to the next in line which was Soto. And the rest is history as they say.

[imref]

You can build a winning team with a stud defensive CF who doesn't hurt you in the lineup. It isn't like he is a bust.

Not yet, and 2019 Robles was very good for his age.  2020 Robles,  not so much.  Hopefully we get something closer to 2019 in 2021.

[Slateman]

I'm not holding 2020 against anyone.

If 2019 Robles is his ceiling, is that a bad thing? Not every stud prospect will flourish like Harper, Rendon, and Soto. A lot of teams would be happy with Turner or Soto outcomes, we've just grown accustomed to star prospects becoming superstars.

It's not a bad thing, in the macro. But Robles was billed as a top prospect with 5 tool ability. If 2019 is his ceiling, then Robles is a bust.

You can build a winning team with a stud defensive CF who doesn't hurt you in the lineup. It isn't like he is a bust.

Like I said, if 2019 is his ceiling, he's a bust. Robles was scouted with 65+ grade hit tool and 55+ grade power. He was projected to be prime Andrew McCutchen/ Lorenzo Cain/Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury. For him to not achieve that and instead, basically become Manuel Margot is a pretty big bust.

But he's young and, like you said, 2020 shouldn't have much stock in it. What is more concerning is his weight gain and sudden defensive drop off.

[imref]

FWIW, Zuckerman said in his morning Q&A today that there is no indication that the Nats have any other plan than for Robles to be the everyday CF next year. 

DR winter ball stat line:  13 G, 47 AB, 9 R, 11 H, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 6 BB, 8 SO, 3 SB, 3 CS, .234 AVG, .362 OBP, .404 SLG, .766 OPS

[NJ Ave]

Toolsy guys who turn out to be just okay are often disappointing to fan bases. But this is when he just got called up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/projecting-victor-robles/

Everything about this seems pretty accurate. It projected him at 12.5 WAR over his first 6 seasons, so an average outcome may very well top out around 2019 when he had 2.5 WAR.

Maybe he's our Carlos Gomez.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Toolsy guys who turn out to be just okay are often disappointing to fan bases. But this is when he just got called up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/projecting-victor-robles/

Everything about this seems pretty accurate. It projected him at 12.5 WAR over his first 6 seasons, so an average outcome may very well top out around 2019 when he had 2.5 WAR.

Maybe he's our Carlos Gomez.

perfect pull on your comparison - Carlos Gomez.  Franklin Gutierrez is another one (kind of surprised he had as high as a 13 WAR career - but that's one all star season; Death to Flying Things?).  Boom bust profile, so really 6 years of consistent league average would be about as big of a surprise as any result from the looks of those comparable.

[imref]

https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2021/02/slimmer-robles-ready-to-reassert-himself-on-defense-at-bat.html

[imref]

Maybe the best story out of ST so far this year:  30 PA - .280/.400/.560 2HR 4SB (0CS) 4BB & 8K

[Greg_SRT]

Of the few ABs I have actually seen (lack of tv broadcast) he seemed to be taking more bad pitches. Had more presence and confidence

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Of the few ABs I have actually seen (lack of tv broadcast) he seemed to be taking more bad pitches. Had more presence and confidence

he never was supposed to have a great batting eye at any level, so this is a new and welcome development. I don't know if it is easier to take bad pitches at spring training because pitchers include minor leaguers and all aren't quite locked in, but if he can maintain a low teens walk rate, a .240 AVG would be good enough, and a .260 AVG would be enough to hit leadoff.  I'd be pleased with a .260/.380 / .420 line out of a leadoff hitter.

[Smithian]

he never was supposed to have a great batting eye at any level, so this is a new and welcome development. I don't know if it is easier to take bad pitches at spring training because pitchers include minor leaguers and all aren't quite locked in, but if he can maintain a low teens walk rate, a .240 AVG would be good enough, and a .260 AVG would be enough to hit leadoff.  I'd be pleased with a .260/.380 / .420 line out of a leadoff hitter.

Since I don't consider 2020 as having happened, I pulled up 2019. A .800 OPS at the leadoff would have been league average, as the #15 team average OPS from leadoff hitters was .808 and #16 was .787.

I'll take a league average leadoff hitter who defends well.

[Slateman]

Hitting .250/.400/.250 to start the season

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Hitting .250/.400/.250 to start the season

well, one of those numbers is fine.