Worst Offensive Performance - 2018 Edition

[Natsinpwc]

I wonder what batters were doing in 1999 that’s harder for them to get away with now

Trying to make contact instead of concentrating on their launch angle.

[varoadking]

I wonder what batters were doing in 1999 that’s harder for them to get away with now

Working off season gigs to make ends meet?

[HalfSmokes]

Trying to make contact instead of concentrating on their launch angle.

That classic period between 1994 and 2000 when offense flourished because of ‘contact’

[bluestreak]

Except Homers are *UP* compared to 1999. I imagine steroids would help more with power than with average.

[HalfSmokes]

Except Homers are *UP* compared to 1999. I imagine steroids would help more with power than with average.

Hard hit balls are more likely to fall for hits that weakly hit balls. 4.35 runs per game (the base line that apparently shows how terrible offense is this year) seams about average over the history of the game

[Natsinpwc]

That classic period between 1994 and 2000 when offense flourished because of ‘contact’

If you look at the numbers it's not that simple; they have gone down also in this decade.  Although last year went up.  Lots of factors.  I am sure steroids is one.  Also, more relief pitchers who can throw 95-100 consistently.  Shifts.  Guys swinging hard with two strikes.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

[bluestreak]

Hard hit balls are more likely to fall for hits that weakly hit balls. 4.35 runs per game (the base line that apparently shows how terrible offense is this year) seams about average over the history of the game

I don’t disagree. But if the effect were due to steroids being removed, I would imagine that average and home runs would go in tandem. The fact that they aren’t makes me think it’s a change in how batters are approaching the plate.

[HalfSmokes]

The average over the longer course seems to be around 4.5 but with lots of variation year to year. The only years above 5 were 96 and 2000 when steroids were pretty popular

[Natsinpwc]

I don’t disagree. But if the effect were due to steroids being removed, I would imagine that average and home runs would go in tandem. The fact that they aren’t makes me think it’s a change in how batters are approaching the plate.

Yes.  Also pitchers have gotten better.  You didn't have all these 6'6' guys throwing heat back in the 90s.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If you look at the numbers it's not that simple; they have gone down also in this decade.  Although last year went up.  Lots of factors.  I am sure steroids is one.  Also, more relief pitchers who can throw 95-100 consistently.  Shifts.  Guys swinging hard with two strikes.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

ball was juiced last year.  There were a number of technical extremes that have been pointed out in testing.  538 and ESPN studied it.

MLB and its commissioner, Rob Manfred, have repeatedly denied rumors that the ball has been altered in any way — or “juiced” — to generate more homers. But a large and growing body of research shows that, beginning in the middle of the 2015 season, the MLB baseball began to fly further. And new research commissioned by “ESPN Sport Science,” a show that breaks down the science of sports,1 suggests that MLB baseballs used after the 2015 All-Star Game were subtly but consistently different than older baseballs. The research, performed by the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California and Kent State University’s Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, reveals changes in the density and chemical composition of the baseball’s core — and provides our first glimpse inside the newer baseballs.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/

MLB acknowledged the balls are more aerodynamic.

It's not how the ball leaves the bat that's causing all this, at least according to this research. Rather, it's how the ball is behaving in the air that's leading to more home runs -- it's the aerodynamics. In 2014, for instance, home runs occurred on 9.5 percent of fly balls. Last season, that figure was up 13.7 percent, the highest on record.

So what's happening? The committee found that rising temperatures were not the cause. Here's what they did find:

    The results of all these studies was that while changes in lift were not as apparent, the drag coefficient of Major League baseballs has decreased since 2015.

The drag coefficient is how the ball slows down on its path.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-reveals-results-of-study-on-whether-juiced-balls-led-to-home-run-spike-will-take-five-new-steps-as-a-result/

[RobDibblesGhost]

Same deal last year for the Mets wth Kevin Long: crappy offense that pretty much either produced a strikeout or home run.

[mixedmutt]

Since you asked and it’s raining... Yes, He is seeing pitches that are quite different.

I looked up the percentages of pitches each player is getting inside the strike zone. I set the limit at an arbitrary 140 Plate appearances. Ranking (by lowest rate) in parentheses:

Trout 43.6% of pitches in zone (143/233)
Betts 42.9% (126/233)
Freeman 41.3 % (66/233)
Altuve 41.0 % (52/233)
Harper 38.2 % (9/233)

And the range for all 233 batters was 37-48%. So Harper is low and the difference between him and the others is significant.

Take out IBBs and run the numbers again....or just run them now with current PAs. Would be willing to bet the difference would be much smaller, and you probably shouldn't include batters from the AL.

Regardless, pitchers may be pitching him differently(as in out of the zone) because they know it works, thats still on him. It would be stupid for catchers/pitchers to not change their approach for each batter based on scouting reports.

Either way, its pretty stupid at this point to not have Soto hitting behind Harper, get him some protection and I bet pitchers won't be so content to just walk him. Especially against LHP, even though I imagine Soto's splits against RHP are still better than Rendon's.

[mixedmutt]

ball was juiced last year.  There were a number of technical extremes that have been pointed out in testing.  538 and ESPN studied it.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/

MLB acknowledged the balls are more aerodynamic.https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-reveals-results-of-study-on-whether-juiced-balls-led-to-home-run-spike-will-take-five-new-steps-as-a-result/

Wouldn't that also dampen breaking balls? I wonder if launch angles have changed since 2014 as well, if LAs have gone up that would explain the difference in HRs independent of drag.

Not necessarily disagreeing with said conclusions, but I don't think there is any intentional juicing of balls, its just variance due to inconsistent manufacturing. MLB needs to decide on a strict manufacturing procedure, and then have enough balls produced to last 50 years, all done in one production run, then store them all inside a climate controlled warehouse until they are used.

At they very least all the balls used within one season need to come from the same production run. And be stored/handled in the same manner until game time. As long as all the ball's from within a season behave the same then the game is still "fair", this is a team sport after all, its not just about getting into the Hall.

[bluestreak]

Wouldn't that also dampen breaking balls? I wonder if launch angles have changed since 2014 as well, if LAs have gone up that would explain the difference in HRs independent of drag.

Not necessarily disagreeing with said conclusions, but I don't think there is any intentional juicing of balls, its just variance due to inconsistent manufacturing. MLB needs to decide on a strict manufacturing procedure, and then have enough balls produced to last 50 years, all done in one production run, then store them all inside a climate controlled warehouse until they are used.

At they very least all the balls used within one season need to come from the same production run. And be stored/handled in the same manner until game time. As long as all the ball's from within a season behave the same then the game is still "fair", this is a team sport after all, its not just about getting into the Hall.

Rawlings was just bought by MLB, so maybe they will do this.

[hotshot]

Leagewide batting average is down from .271 in 1999 to .245 this year.

Other side of the coin is it puts pitching performances/stats in a different light. Makes you wonder if the Scherzer's and deGrom's are really THAT good and also confirms just how horrific the guys at the middle to bottom of the MLB pitching barrel are.

[vernon337]

Things I would like to see to bring offense back to the game, including cutting down on strikeouts:
1) Some brilliant organization teaching their players to hit to the opposite field against shifts, teach players who don't have home run power to concentrate on making contact  (and teach the power hitters to think about doing it with two strikes) and have everyone re-learn how to bunt (pitchers should be practicing it every day).
2) Get rid of the low strike. 

[LoveAngelos]

Three up three down three up three down like a broken Fn  record... Against Fn Hess.
I left the park at the end of the 4th.... had enough

[bluestreak]

Three up three down three up three down like a broken Fn  record... Against Fn Hess.
I left the park at the end of the 4th.... had enough

 
 

[Slateman]

Three up three down three up three down like a broken Fn  record... Against Fn Hess.
I left the park at the end of the 4th.... had enough

We were glad to he did of your candy ass, NANF arse

[bluestreak]

Three up three down three up three down like a broken Fn  record... Against Fn Hess.
I left the park at the end of the 4th.... had enough

 

[imref]

Three up three down three up three down like a broken Fn  record... Against Fn Hess.
I left the park at the end of the 4th.... had enough

Worst post in WNFF history

[varoadking]

Worst post in WNFF history

Don't sell yourself short...

[LoveAngelos]

Glad to provide a good laugh for the Kool Aid Brigade......the local lemmings

[bluestreak]

Glad to provide a good laugh for the Kool Aid Brigade......the local lemmings

Well you left a game you paid for (or claimed to leave) in the 4th inning because of lack of offensive performance in a game that the Nats scored 9 runs....
That crap is funny.

[LoveAngelos]

Not just lack of offensive performance in that game but lack of offensive performance against the worst team in baseball after being swept by the 4th place Blue Jays who at the same time last night were being hammered by the Braves....but yeah so funny I missed a heroic grind it out comeback against the worst team in the league and Royce's double off a AA pitcher. Darn!


BTW are you always the smartest guy in the room????????