Poll

The NL East winner will be (votes close 9/1):

Barves
15 (46.9%)
Phillies
6 (18.8%)
Nats
5 (15.6%)
Mets
2 (6.3%)
do the Marlins still count?
4 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 32

Voting closed: September 01, 2018, 02:36:33 PM

Author Topic: NL East (2018)  (Read 64380 times)

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Offline phil219

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #650: June 25, 2018, 03:58:01 PM »
I feel like so far this season has been absolute worst case scenario for us and absolute best case scenario for Atlanta and Philly, yet with all that we're only 3 back. I sense a hot streak coming, probably sometime after the ASB.

Yeah, if we go on a 10 game win streak like the 2014 team did in August, we'll be fine. Also, LMAO at people who think extending Rizzo was a mistake. Bring back Jim Bowden, eh?

Offline UMDNats

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #651: June 25, 2018, 03:59:22 PM »
I feel like so far this season has been absolute worst case scenario for us and absolute best case scenario for Atlanta and Philly, yet with all that we're only 3 back. I sense a hot streak coming, probably sometime after the ASB.

Yeah, not really worried yet. ESPN (when they weren't talking about Bryce) was all about how amazing the Phillies are, which reminded me of how they were in awe of the Mets in early April. :lmao:

Offline bluestreak

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #652: June 25, 2018, 04:09:42 PM »
I am impressed with Atlanta's team this season, and I believe they can be a solid team over the rest of the season.  But in looking at their lineup this season, I am struck by how much good fortune they have had up till  now -- especially when compared to Washington.

Of the eight players in Atlanta's starting lineup for their first game this year, seven have now played in at least 50 games.  The one who hasn't was their catcher, who got beat out for the job by Suzuki.  Suzuki has now played in 53 games.  So their basic starting lineup has been pretty much intact throughout the season.  Three of their starters -- Freeman, Markakis and Flaherty -- are having career-best years in terms of OPS+.  Suzuki actually had a higher one last year, but his OPS+ for this year is 33 points higher than his career average. (Markakis's is 30 pts higher).


Meanwhile in Washington ...
Four of the players in our starting-day lineup -- Eaton, Zimmerman, Wieters and Kendrick (who was himself a replcement for Murphy) -- have played 40 (Kendrick) or fewer games.  Of the other four Rendon is now 11 pts above his career average for OPS+ and Taylor is four pts above.  But Turner is 12 pts below and Harper 17. 

Maybe our players are just more injury-prone.  Maybe Markakis and Suzuki have suddenly figured it out in their mid-30s.  Maybe Harper will defy baseball history and become a .200 hitter after winning an MVP before he turned 25.  But I say the odds are better that The Nats' lineup performs better for the rest of the season than it has up to now, and the Braves' performs worse.  It's a crazy game, with a lot of twists and turns that are impossible to predict, but that's what it looks like to me.

So... BABIP?

Offline vernon337

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #653: June 25, 2018, 04:25:46 PM »
So... BABIP?

So what I'm saying here is that Markakis and Suzuki, who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn a few years back, are all of a sudden knocking the cover off the ball.  Maybe they've found the fountain of youth, but the guys in the know tell me they are more likely to get conked by their lucky horseshoes one of these days.  As for the Nats one-time wonder boy, word is that he's about to go on a tear.  And as for the injuries, Lady Luck can be mighty fickle in her affections. 

There you go: not a bit of sabrematricing in the whole post. 

Offline bluestreak

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #654: June 25, 2018, 04:29:33 PM »
So what I'm saying here is that Markakis and Suzuki, who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn a few years back, are all of a sudden knocking the cover off the ball.  Maybe they've found the fountain of youth, but the guys in the know tell me they are more likely to get conked by their lucky horseshoes one of these days.  As for the Nats one-time wonder boy, word is that he's about to go on a tear.  And as for the injuries, Lady Luck can be mighty fickle in her affections. 

There you go: not a bit of sabrematricing in the whole post.

I’m sorry. I completely agree with you. I was just making fun of some others here. I’m one of the bigger proponents of sabermetrics here.
Some people here don’t believe in stretches of good or bad luck.

Offline vernon337

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #655: June 25, 2018, 04:41:44 PM »
I’m sorry. I completely agree with you. I was just making fun of some others here. I’m one of the bigger proponents of sabermetrics here.
Some people here don’t believe in stretches of good or bad luck.

No sweat.  I took it that way, just clowning around.  I have to admit I failed miserably because I wanted to capture the florid prose of 1930s baseball columnists.  But I just couldn't remember any of the great phrases I've read from that era.   

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #656: June 25, 2018, 06:07:01 PM »
So... BABIP?

Would have been a shorter post if he had just said that, yeah.

Online Slateman

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #657: June 25, 2018, 06:24:55 PM »
We're four games off last year's pace.

Four.

Offline varoadking

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #658: June 25, 2018, 06:35:22 PM »
Some people here don’t believe in stretches of good or bad luck.


Online Natsinpwc

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #659: June 25, 2018, 06:49:25 PM »
We're four games off last year's pace.

Four.
Last year was easier because the division sucked. This year not so much. Of course that's part of the reason the record is not as good. Still half the season to go.

Offline hotshot

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #660: June 25, 2018, 08:31:39 PM »
Markakis is a career .289 hitter. We're in no position to turn up our noses at that.

Offline vernon337

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #661: June 25, 2018, 08:57:59 PM »
Markakis is a career .289 hitter. We're in no position to turn up our noses at that.

I'm not turning my nose up at it, but for the past few years he has been middle of the road in OPS+ (Baseball Reference) and among the bottom feeders in WAR (Fangraphs).  (Would have used baseball reference for both, but don't know how to rank all the players in WAR in baseball reference).

The last two years he ranked 46th and 48th in OPS+, this year he's ninth. 

He ranked 58th of 64 qualified batters in WAR in 2017, 54th of 67 in 2016.  This year? 12th. 

A (very) few players become much better players at 34 or older, but a lot more have spurts where they do great, then sink back to the level they had been at for the previous years.  That was what I was suggesting is a good possibility with Markakis.



He had one very good year for the Orioles WAR-wise (7.4) and one other solid one (4.1), but otherwise nothing above 2.4.  This year, he's at 2.4 with more than half the season to go.

Offline Air Desmond

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #662: June 26, 2018, 12:52:12 AM »
Braves win on a walkoff hr.

What’s it going to take to win the division? 86-76?

Offline mixedmutt

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #663: June 26, 2018, 01:35:52 AM »
Braves are on pace for 95 wins, so probably a few more than 86.

Don't have much to say about the above discussion, but Markakis is a couple seasons removed from fusion surgery and has always been considered a consistent professional hitter....don't know what Suzuki's deal is, but this is the second season he's been putting up numbers like this, so its not a sample size thing, I do know he started using one of those axe handled bats when he went to atlanta.

I will say that WAR generally undervalues consistent hitters, a line up that hits 15 HR .289/.359/.425, 1 through 8, without any slumps, is going to the post season every single year, of course what happened there would depend highly on the pitching.

Offline miket14

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #664: June 26, 2018, 08:22:47 AM »
Braves win on a walkoff hr.

What’s it going to take to win the division? 86-76?

At least 90.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #665: June 26, 2018, 08:32:22 AM »
It will take 5 more wins than the Braves the rest of the season. Unless the Phillies do better than that. Simple.

Offline hotshot

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #666: June 26, 2018, 09:15:32 AM »
It will take 5 more wins than the Braves the rest of the season. Unless the Phillies do better than that. Simple.

If the Phillies land Machado (as they are the betting favorite to do) ...

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #667: June 26, 2018, 09:28:55 AM »
If the Phillies land Machado (as they are the betting favorite to do) ...
We will see. Not sure they want to give up the ransom the BLOS are demanding for a Machado rental. They can sign him in the offseason.

Offline imref

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #668: June 26, 2018, 05:54:54 PM »
The Mets have announced that GM Sandy Anderson will take a leave of absence to deal with a recurrence of cancer.  :(


Offline Truconfidence

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #669: June 26, 2018, 09:50:32 PM »
Anibal Sanchez pulled because of cramps of his calf on the same leg as a previously injured hamstring.

Online Slateman

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #670: June 26, 2018, 10:58:23 PM »
Braves lose.

Honestly, Albies is BJ Upton at second.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #671: June 27, 2018, 02:37:29 AM »
People here trying to convince themselves the Braves will come back to earth while ignoring the litany of problems with the Nats


Online Slateman

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #672: June 27, 2018, 08:24:53 AM »
People here trying to convince themselves the Braves will come back to earth while ignoring the litany of problems with the Nats

(Image removed from quote.)
That "litany" is resolving itself. The team is getting healthier and starting to hit more.

Meanwhile, the Braves have gone 5-5 over their last ten, their OPS has dropped over 10 points from last month, and their pitching has seen their ERAs increase.

Through one of the worst stretches of injuries in all of baseball, the Nationals are still above .500, and are within 4 games of the Braves.

Offline RobDibblesGhost

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #673: June 27, 2018, 08:38:20 AM »
Sandy Alderson is batting cancer and stepping down as GM of the Mets.

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #674: June 27, 2018, 08:43:43 AM »
That "litany" is resolving itself. The team is getting healthier and starting to hit more.

Meanwhile, the Braves have gone 5-5 over their last ten, their OPS has dropped over 10 points from last month, and their pitching has seen their ERAs increase.

Through one of the worst stretches of injuries in all of baseball, the Nationals are still above .500, and are within 4 games of the Braves.

Nats are starting to hit more?