Author Topic: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)  (Read 31623 times)

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Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #375: May 17, 2018, 04:34:34 PM »
Can you imagine being a Marlins fan now? No hope for years.

Anyone who was a Nats fan in 2006 can easily imagine it.

Offline catocony

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #376: May 17, 2018, 04:44:01 PM »
Does anyone miss Wieters? No. Let's enjoy the time without him.

Matt has a 0.4 WAR for the limited time he played in the first six weeks.  He might not be worth $10.5 million, but he was playing decently. 

Offline catocony

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #377: May 17, 2018, 04:45:59 PM »
Can you imagine being a Marlins fan now? No hope for years.

How many seasons was John Lannan the Opening Day pitcher for the Nats?  The Marlins aren't any worse now than the Nats were 2007-2009 during the Acta Regime.

Offline ChiliPalmer14

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #378: May 17, 2018, 04:46:19 PM »
I have been lurking on a Marlins board ever since Realmuto was suggested over the offseason. Here is what I gather:

Realmuto is a slightly above average hitter who is on a huge hot-streak right now, inflating his value
Realmuto is an awful framing catcher

Anyone trading for Realmuto now would be overpaying for "over-performance". I think Realmuto is a really good get because you can expect a slightly above average bat, with decent mobility for a catcher, with decent defensive fielding value, who frames like a dump truck for the next few years.

Currently the Nats have a catcher who is "over-performing" his minor league stats, who is an adequately above average framer, who has above average defensive fielding value, and also has decent mobility for a catcher. I think you have to run Severino out there enough to see if his .351 BABIP starts to trend towards south of .300 which was his norm in the minors. If that happens, Severino is a backup and the Nats need a long(ish) answer at Catcher.

Maybe, but of active players with at least 425 games played over the last four seasons, only 53 have more hits than games played and an OPS above .750.  The Nats have five of those 53.  Murphy, Harper, Rendon, Kendrick and Eaton.  Turner just missed the list because of games played.  Realmuto is on that list, too. 

Offline dcpatti

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #379: May 17, 2018, 04:57:40 PM »
Matt has a 0.4 WAR for the limited time he played in the first six weeks.  He might not be worth $10.5 million, but he was playing decently.

Speaking of $10.5 million, I believe the whole figure is calculated into the luxury tax even if Wiets doesn't play again at all this year, but I'm not certain. Does anyone know for sure?

Offline varoadking

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #380: May 17, 2018, 05:07:10 PM »
Speaking of $10.5 million, I believe the whole figure is calculated into the luxury tax even if Wiets doesn't play again at all this year, but I'm not certain. Does anyone know for sure?

99.99999999999% sure that is correct...otherwise teams could game the system...

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #381: May 17, 2018, 05:53:26 PM »
If you were to deal for Ramos or Realmuto, then you could probably expect part of the package to be Severino.  So, could Daniel Johnson, Severino, and ???? get either?

Online Slateman

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #382: May 17, 2018, 06:28:50 PM »
Except to the Yankees.
The Marlins got a worse offer from the Giants.  Yankees took on a monster salary.

I think Robles or Soto count a little higher than the song-dance-Tetreault thing.  Could say they gave up Yelich for less than that.  I dunno. 
And I dont know how I feel about giving up two thirds of my future starting outfield.

I have been lurking on a Marlins board ever since Realmuto was suggested over the offseason. Here is what I gather:

Realmuto is a slightly above average hitter who is on a huge hot-streak right now, inflating his value
Realmuto is an awful framing catcher

Anyone trading for Realmuto now would be overpaying for "over-performance". I think Realmuto is a really good get because you can expect a slightly above average bat, with decent mobility for a catcher, with decent defensive fielding value, who frames like a dump truck for the next few years.

Currently the Nats have a catcher who is "over-performing" his minor league stats, who is an adequately above average framer, who has above average defensive fielding value, and also has decent mobility for a catcher. I think you have to run Severino out there enough to see if his .351 BABIP starts to trend towards south of .300 which was his norm in the minors. If that happens, Severino is a backup and the Nats need a long(ish) answer at Catcher.


Except that in 1500+ PAs, hes hit .281/.323/.430. That makes him sixth amongst catchers with at least 1000 PA's. And hes .319/.363/.492 away from that nightmare of a stadium.

So to say hes simply an above average hitter is moronic, especially considering that most catchers are well below average at the plate. Catchers OPS'd .696 last season

Offline dcpatti

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #383: May 17, 2018, 06:59:46 PM »
If you were to deal for Ramos or Realmuto, then you could probably expect part of the package to be Severino.  So, could Daniel Johnson, Severino, and ???? get either?

I think Johnson + Sevvy is an overpay for a rental on Ramos, and the Rays have a stud catching prospect who’s supposed to be ready in 2020 or 2021.  Maybe Johnson, Goosewich (to be a 2018 backup catcher) and a lottery ticket or two get us half a season of Ramos. The Tampa farm is light on outfielders and corner infielders, and we have loads of those.  Johnson is going to be real good.

Offline catocony

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #384: May 17, 2018, 07:56:27 PM »
If you trade away the one catcher you have for a catcher, you're left with one catcher, which is the current problem. 

Online Slateman

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #385: May 17, 2018, 08:34:52 PM »
If you trade away the one catcher you have for a catcher, you're left with one catcher, which is the current problem. 

Uh .... no. That's an upgrade at catcher. We have plenty of backup fodder.

Offline catocony

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #386: May 17, 2018, 08:40:20 PM »
Uh .... no. That's an upgrade at catcher. We have plenty of backup fodder.
Who is the decent backup?  By fodder, you're ok with fodder catching a game or two a week, and potentially starting if Realmuto gets hurt?

Offline bluestreak

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #387: May 17, 2018, 08:44:45 PM »
Randy Reed really screwed us. Even if he comes back and is competent, you can’t use him for the postseason.

Online Slateman

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #388: May 17, 2018, 09:05:44 PM »
Who is the decent backup?  By fodder, you're ok with fodder catching a game or two a week, and potentially starting if Realmuto gets hurt?

The same we have now?

Offline catocony

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #389: May 17, 2018, 09:39:42 PM »
There isn't a decent backup catcher right now, that's the point a few of us have been trying to make. 

Online Slateman

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #390: May 17, 2018, 09:48:20 PM »
There isn't a decent backup catcher right now, that's the point a few of us have been trying to make. 

How is Severino and no backup better than Realmuto and no backup?

Online Mattionals

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #391: May 17, 2018, 09:54:47 PM »
Except that in 1500+ PAs, hes hit .281/.323/.430. That makes him sixth amongst catchers with at least 1000 PA's. And hes .319/.363/.492 away from that nightmare of a stadium.

So to say hes simply an above average hitter is moronic, especially considering that most catchers are well below average at the plate. Catchers OPS'd .696 last season

You can't put position into how good a hitter the guy is. wRC+ gives no positional favoritism and even WAR calculates positional adjustment on the defensive side of things. What is alarming g about his splits ho!e vs away is his away BABIP is 100 points higher and 67 points higher than league average. I can't imagine that Marlins Park is killing him that much.

You have to evaluate the player as a whole, and hitting is somewhat independent from the position a player plays. You definitely will have to pay more for a catcher with good defense and a 107 wRC+ than a left fielder 2ith good defense and a 107 wRC+. 107 wRC+ is still slightly above average in hitting, but positional defense makes up the rest for price.

Now how much does Realmuto's crap framing hurt his value? That is the question I want to know.

Online Slateman

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #392: May 17, 2018, 10:05:27 PM »
You can't put position into how good a hitter the guy is. wRC+ gives no positional favoritism and even WAR calculates positional adjustment on the defensive side of things. What is alarming g about his splits ho!e vs away is his away BABIP is 100 points higher and 67 points higher than league average. I can't imagine that Marlins Park is killing him that much.

You have to evaluate the player as a whole, and hitting is somewhat independent from the position a player plays. You definitely will have to pay more for a catcher with good defense and a 107 wRC+ than a left fielder 2ith good defense and a 107 wRC+. 107 wRC+ is still slightly above average in hitting, but positional defense makes up the rest for price.

Now how much does Realmuto's crap framing hurt his value? That is the question I want to know.

Evaluating him as a whole, he has 1500 PAs that show hes a good hitter, and a very good one for a position that has a dearth of offense

Online Mattionals

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #393: May 18, 2018, 10:18:09 AM »
So to say hes simply an above average hitter is moronic, especially considering that most catchers are well below average at the plate. Catchers OPS'd .696 last season

You are saying TWO different things. As a hitter, not a catcher, he has been about 4 or 5 points above average for his career. He is trending upwards, but even if he is 10 points above average, as a hitter, without positional context (like what I bolded in your post), he is slightly above average. The other thing you are saying is taking him as a hitter IN positional context, which is true, he is a top hitting catcher.

Here is how you have to evaluate the Catcher scenario if you want to go for Realmuto if you are the Nats:
  • Pedro Severino is hitting at 106 wRC+ right now, do you believe he falls off or keeps it up and if he falls off, where does his bat fall wRC+ wise?
  • Pedro Severino has been worth four runs saved defensively (doesn't include framing)
  • Pedro Severino has been worth 1.7 runs above average with his framing
  • J.T. Realmuto is hitting at 155 wRC+ right now, do you believe he falls off or keeps it up and if he falls off, where does his bat fall wRC+ wise?
  • J.T. Realmuto has been worth MINUS one run saved defensively (doesn't include framing)
  • J.T. Realmuto has been worth 3.4 runs BELOW average with his framing

Realmuto profiles as an above average bat, playing adequate enough defense to improve his value at a position that typically hits like garbage. Severino profiles as a weak bat, playing very good defense at a position that typically you want to have the best defense.

I think Realmuto is not worth Soto or Robles, but I don't know if the Nats have enough in the next tier down to land him, because I think Kieboom is good, but definitely not enough to headline a deal. I come to this opinion in thinking that Realmuto's lack of framing skills and adequate defense (he has a very good arm though) hurt him a bit.

Online Slateman

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #394: May 18, 2018, 12:48:21 PM »
You are saying TWO different things. As a hitter, not a catcher, he has been about 4 or 5 points above average for his career. He is trending upwards, but even if he is 10 points above average, as a hitter, without positional context (like what I bolded in your post), he is slightly above average. The other thing you are saying is taking him as a hitter IN positional context, which is true, he is a top hitting catcher.

Here is how you have to evaluate the Catcher scenario if you want to go for Realmuto if you are the Nats:
  • Pedro Severino is hitting at 106 wRC+ right now, do you believe he falls off or keeps it up and if he falls off, where does his bat fall wRC+ wise?
  • Pedro Severino has been worth four runs saved defensively (doesn't include framing)
  • Pedro Severino has been worth 1.7 runs above average with his framing
  • J.T. Realmuto is hitting at 155 wRC+ right now, do you believe he falls off or keeps it up and if he falls off, where does his bat fall wRC+ wise?
  • J.T. Realmuto has been worth MINUS one run saved defensively (doesn't include framing)
  • J.T. Realmuto has been worth 3.4 runs BELOW average with his framing

Realmuto profiles as an above average bat, playing adequate enough defense to improve his value at a position that typically hits like garbage. Severino profiles as a weak bat, playing very good defense at a position that typically you want to have the best defense.

I think Realmuto is not worth Soto or Robles, but I don't know if the Nats have enough in the next tier down to land him, because I think Kieboom is good, but definitely not enough to headline a deal. I come to this opinion in thinking that Realmuto's lack of framing skills and adequate defense (he has a very good arm though) hurt him a bit.

I believe it's more likely that Realmuto hits closer to 155 wRC+ away from Miami than Severino continues to hit at his current pace.

Trying to pretend that it doesn't matter for his position group is, at best, stupid, and at worst, freaking moronic. So is the pitch framing argument as well as defense. The Nationals are on the hook for Wieters, who hasn't posted a positive DRS in 7 seasons, and has always been a crappy pitch framer. 

Getting an above average bat, AT THE CATCHER POSITION, is frankly, incredibly challenging. Last year, the average for catcher's wRC+ was 89. So far, this season, it's 90.


There's a reason Realmuto is a 3.5 WAR catcher in back to back seasons, despite poor defensive metrics.

Online Mattionals

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #395: May 18, 2018, 01:23:57 PM »
Trying to pretend that it doesn't matter for his position group is, at best, stupid, and at worst, freaking moronic.

You keep trying to attach my words to something I'm not suggesting. I am saying he is a VERY GOOD HITTING CATCHER. I'm saying that if he goes back to career norms, he isn't an elite hitter. Even if away from Miami he turns into a .820 OPS hitter, that is, by Bill James definition an above average hitter. Being a very good hitting catcher doesn't mean he isn't just an above average hitter.

You keep inferring that my idea is moronic to take his bat out of context from his position. When you develop the lineup card, do you care what position a player plays, or do you base it off of their hitting stats? Realmuto on the Nats, at his career numbers, would be a number 7 hitter. That is a good problem to have.

I never said his value isn't tied to his position. He will cost because he is an above average hitter overall at a position where nearly everyone else sucks.

Online Slateman

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #396: May 18, 2018, 01:30:14 PM »
You keep trying to attach my words to something I'm not suggesting. I am saying he is a VERY GOOD HITTING CATCHER. I'm saying that if he goes back to career norms, he isn't an elite hitter. Even if away from Miami he turns into a .820 OPS hitter, that is, by Bill James definition an above average hitter. Being a very good hitting catcher doesn't mean he isn't just an above average hitter.

You keep inferring that my idea is moronic to take his bat out of context from his position. When you develop the lineup card, do you care what position a player plays, or do you base it off of their hitting stats? Realmuto on the Nats, at his career numbers, would be a number 7 hitter. That is a good problem to have.

I never said his value isn't tied to his position. He will cost because he is an above average hitter overall at a position where nearly everyone else sucks.

An .820 OPS makes him a top 3 catcher in baseball.

I care about getting ANOTHER .800+ OPS bat in a lineup when 85% of the teams we face cant. That's an enormous advantage.

Offline varoadking

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #397: May 18, 2018, 01:36:52 PM »
You keep trying to attach my words to something I'm not suggesting. I am saying he is a VERY GOOD HITTING CATCHER. I'm saying that if he goes back to career norms, he isn't an elite hitter. Even if away from Miami he turns into a .820 OPS hitter, that is, by Bill James definition an above average hitter. Being a very good hitting catcher doesn't mean he isn't just an above average hitter.

You keep inferring that my idea is moronic to take his bat out of context from his position. When you develop the lineup card, do you care what position a player plays, or do you base it off of their hitting stats? Realmuto on the Nats, at his career numbers, would be a number 7 hitter. That is a good problem to have.

I never said his value isn't tied to his position. He will cost because he is an above average hitter overall at a position where nearly everyone else sucks.

Above average is not good...

Offline catocony

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #398: May 18, 2018, 04:49:04 PM »
Realmuto is weak on defense.  It doesn't matter if he has a solid offensive WAR if isn't helping pitchers get opposing guys out.  For catchers, defensive WAR - or other stats - don't fully take into account that, with poor framing and average at best other defensive attributes, pitchers' pitch counts and WHIPs are going to be higher.  That's a hidden cost for a catcher, which is why catchers with mediocre bats but solid defense are more valuable then guys with higher OPS but weak defense. 

Good offense from a catcher helps, but bad defense from a catcher kills. 

Offline dcpatti

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Re: The List of DL (2018 DL Watch)
« Reply #399: May 18, 2018, 05:02:23 PM »
Murphy arrived in West Palm but got sick, so he hasn’t played any rehab games there yet, but he is already feeling better and they are hopeful he can play 5-6 innings on Sunday.