Since they are already over, I don't think that it will matter that much to ownership. They probably see this year as "the year" to go over the threshold and pay a penalty because Harper, Murphy, Gio, Wieters, and Madson come off the books at season's end. I think they play the game to see if they can "adjust" the system to benefit them, but I don't think that the Luxury Tax threshold will play as big of a deal as it would for the other big market teams.
According to Rizzo they are not already over, but I agree that this is the year for the Nats to make a run, we've got a very good returning team and a lot of big market clubs are dropping payroll to prepare for the FA group next off-season.
The fact that Rizzo contradicted the AP reports is a major story that the Nats media has completely missed.