2018 HOF ballot

[Lintyfresh85]

https://bbwaa.com/18-hof-ballot-release/

My 10

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Vlad Guerrero
Trevor Hoffman
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Edgar Martinez
Jim Thome
Omar Vizquel
Larry Walker

[NJ Ave]

Bonds
Clemens
Vlad
Chipper
Edgar
Mussina
Manny
Schilling
Thome
Walker

[HalfSmokes]

So who are people assuming were clean this year?

[imref]

Livan has to be a lock, no? 

My ballot:
Chipper Jones
Clemens
Thome
Vlad
Schilling
Walker
Andruw Jones
Hoffman
Martinez
Mussina

[bluestreak]

Bonds
Clemens
C. Jones
Martinez
Guerrero
MGriff
Sosa
Thome
Hoffman
Kent

[Elvir Ovcina]

C. Jones
Mussina
Vlad
Hoffman
Bonds
Clemens
Schilling
Thome
Edgar

[NJ Ave]

C. Jones
Mussina
Vlad
Hoffman
Bonds
Clemens
Schilling
Thome
Edgar

Interesting that you only have 9, don't seem to have a steroids issue, but didn't include Manny. And I'm not attacking your ballot, because I think it's a big issue with perception for Manny (again, steroids aside).

There's basically no difference between Manny the hitter and Frank Thomas the hitter. He's a better hitter than Jim Thome. He's a better hitter than Edgar Martinez. So it seems like Manny gets penalized for having David Ortiz and Jim Thome playing DH while he sucked it up and went out to LF every day.

[HalfSmokes]

he has no shot at the hall, but seeing Johan Santana on the list makes me remember just how dominant a stretch he had

[Elvir Ovcina]

Interesting that you only have 9, don't seem to have a steroids issue, but didn't include Manny. And I'm not attacking your ballot, because I think it's a big issue with perception for Manny (again, steroids aside).

There's basically no difference between Manny the hitter and Frank Thomas the hitter. He's a better hitter than Jim Thome. He's a better hitter than Edgar Martinez. So it seems like Manny gets penalized for having David Ortiz and Jim Thome playing DH while he sucked it up and went out to LF every day.

Theory was this: Bonds and Clemens likely would be HOF-level without steroids.  Manny probably wouldn't, in my view.  It's not a penalty for defense - pre-steroids Cleveland Manny was not awful in RF.  It's just a guessing game, of course: nobody knows if late-90s Clemens ever exists without chemical help, but Clemens up through the end of the Boston career was certainly good enough to put himself in the conversation. 

It pained me to put Thome and Edgar on there as I despise the DH, but the reality is that Thome played in the field until he was 35 and Edgar was just too much of a machine to leave off. 

[NJ Ave]

Theory was this: Bonds and Clemens likely would be HOF-level without steroids.  Manny probably wouldn't, in my view. 

Makes sense. Maybe I should rethink Manny. I do think the biggest benefit from PEDs seems to be longevity/health, and Manny did hit like an MVP through his age-36 season. Then again, I think it's just as likely that Edgar Martinez lucked out because his career ended when they started testing - the guy OPSed 1.000 from 32-40 after OPSing .850 from 24-31. Ummmmm, red flag?

Anyways, I kind of struggle with the issue because there is a generation of players from the late 1990s through the early 2000s that had ready access to steroids but who weren't tested. So we're just assuming they're clean when that's extremely unlikely?

[HalfSmokes]

I think you either have to not care about PEDs or just leave out that entire generation. Most guys never tested positive, they were just associated with the one ring that got busted and ended up in the Mitchell report - who knows how many Radomskis there were that never appeared on any radar

[Elvir Ovcina]

Makes sense. Maybe I should rethink Manny. I do think the biggest benefit from PEDs seems to be longevity/health, and Manny did hit like an MVP through his age-36 season. Then again, I think it's just as likely that Edgar Martinez lucked out because his career ended when they started testing - the guy OPSed 1.000 from 32-40 after OPSing .850 from 24-31. Ummmmm, red flag?

Anyways, I kind of struggle with the issue because there is a generation of players from the late 1990s through the early 2000s that had ready access to steroids but who weren't tested. So we're just assuming they're clean when that's extremely unlikely?

I think that's true about Martinez.  Re Manny, my assumption has always been that he was doing roids much younger, more like Sosa.  He got huge in his mid-to-late 20s, like Sosa - so musclebound that he couldn't throw the ball properly anymore.

[Count Walewski]

he has no shot at the hall, but seeing Johan Santana on the list makes me remember just how dominant a stretch he had

Growing up as a White Sox fan in Chicago, Santana absolutely tormented us. One year, I got tickets to see a White Sox/Twins game on my birthday. When I realized that Johan Santana would be pitching for the Twins that day, I decided to eat the tickets and not go. It was the right decision: Santana cruised to an easy win.

He was that much of a lock.

[imref]

2018 inductees: Vlad, Thome, Chipper, and Hoffman

. Jones got in with a whopping final vote percentage of 97.2 percent, while Thome received 89.8 percent of the vote, and Guerrero received 92.9 percent. Hoffman made it with 79.9 percent of the vote. With only one year of eligibility remaining, Edgar Martinez failed to make the cut, collecting 70.4 percent of the votes. It was his second close call in a row but bodes well for his chances of getting in next year in his last year of eligibility as he was just 19 votes shy.

Curt Schilling, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Mike Mussina all received more than 50% of the vote.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I will be outraged if Edgar doesn't get in next year.

[spidernat]

I will be outraged if Edgar doesn't get in next year.

With Thome in there is no excuse.

[slhubic]

brilliant !  very happy to see my favorite player in the hall, well-done, Vlad !

[tomterp]

Growing up as a White Sox fan in Chicago, Santana absolutely tormented us. One year, I got tickets to see a White Sox/Twins game on my birthday. When I realized that Johan Santana would be pitching for the Twins that day, I decided to eat the tickets and not go. It was the right decision: Santana cruised to an easy win.

He was that much of a lock.

Levale Speigner

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN200706090.shtml

[imref]

I will be outraged if Edgar doesn't get in next year.

Edgar will get in next year.  I still think Schilling deserves election, even with his outside-of-baseball issues.  Walker arguably deserves to be in too.  Mussina has a fair amount of support but he seems to be unable to cross that line into the HoF.

Zuck makes a good case for Billy Wagner too noting that he was actually a better pitcher in his career than Hoffman even if he didn't pitch as many years (16 total, 14 as a closer).

[Natsinpwc]

Edgar will get in next year.  I still think Schilling deserves election, even with his outside-of-baseball issues.  Walker arguably deserves to be in too.  Mussina has a fair amount of support but he seems to be unable to cross that line into the HoF.

Zuck makes a good case for Billy Wagner too noting that he was actually a better pitcher in his career than Hoffman even if he didn't pitch as many years (16 total, 14 as a closer).

Schilling deserves to be in although he is a despicable person IMHO. I don't know enough about Martinez as I didn't watch much of the Junior Circuit back then.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

With Thome in there is no excuse.

1st ballot, no less.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Edgar will get in next year.  I still think Schilling deserves election, even with his outside-of-baseball issues.  Walker arguably deserves to be in too.  Mussina has a fair amount of support but he seems to be unable to cross that line into the HoF.

Zuck makes a good case for Billy Wagner too noting that he was actually a better pitcher in his career than Hoffman even if he didn't pitch as many years (16 total, 14 as a closer).

It is accepted that closers make the hall now, as do AL pitchers, so I don't get the curmudgeons who won't vote for a DH.  You can't tell me that, had Edgar just stood on 1st and caught what was thrown near him, he would not be in the Hall.  He even won a batting title in 1992 as a 3d baseman.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Mo, Halladay, Berkman, Pettite, Helton on the ballot next year. 

4 locks for me - Mo, Edgar, Schilling, Mussina.  Then some thought - Walker, Rolen (if he is still eligible), Clemens, Bonds, Wagner, then the other  newcomers - Helton, Halladay, Pettite.  Leaning towards Walker and Rolen, but would want to stack them up against Helton.

[imref]

Mo, Halladay, Berkman, Pettite, Helton on the ballot next year. 

4 locks for me - Mo, Edgar, Schilling, Mussina.  Then some thought - Walker, Rolen (if he is still eligible), Clemens, Bonds, Wagner, then the other  newcomers - Helton, Halladay, Pettite.  Leaning towards Walker and Rolen, but would want to stack them up against Helton.

Mo is a lock, Halladay too IMHO.  Edgar probably gets in.  I don't see anyone else crossing the threshold next year.

[NJ Ave]

Mo, Halladay, Edgar will all get in easily. I bet Mussina squeaks in - usually voting accelerates once you're close and people accept you're going to get in (Vlad increased 20% this year).

Clemens/Bonds/Schilling wait until the following season when only Jeter looks like a shoe-in, and all get in that year.