Harper trade speculation (breakout from off-season thread)

[Slateman]

When Griffey left the Mariners, their attendance didn't change. The next year, A-Rod left, and it went UP 600,000 because they won 25 more games. Texas attendance went up 250,000 the year A-Rod arrived, and went up 425,000 the year he left because they won 18 more games.

People have looked at this before and I've never seen evidence that fans buy tickets for individual players instead of a winning team.

Now there may be differences in terms of merchandise, etc. In general, attendance seems linked to other things (in particular winning).

Exactly. If you win, people will come.

Does a top 10 prospect get us wins in 2018? Probably not. Certainly not like Harper. But does it in 2019-2022? I think so.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

When Griffey left the Mariners, their attendance didn't change. The next year, A-Rod left, and it went UP 600,000 because they won 25 more games. Texas attendance went up 250,000 the year A-Rod arrived, and went up 425,000 the year he left because they won 18 more games.

People have looked at this before and I've never seen evidence that fans buy tickets for individual players instead of a winning team.

Now there may be differences in terms of merchandise, etc. In general, attendance seems linked to other things (in particular winning).

You missed the point on that the Nats are a new franchise that people didn't grow up as fans of.  They are going to be more fickle, so losing a megastar like Harper has a much bigger impact than a franchise that has been around.  I don't mean that attendance absolutely tanks if they continue winning, but it's a bigger deal than a Cardinals losing Pujols. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Exactly. If you win, people will come.

Does a top 10 prospect get us wins in 2018? Probably not. Certainly not like Harper. But does it in 2019-2022? I think so.

Didn't you just a few days ago argue with me that we can't attract a good prospect haul if we did hypothetically trade Harper?  So what's this about a top-10 prospect that would help us in 2019-2022?  Which is it?

[Slateman]

Didn't you just a few days ago argue with me that we can't attract a good prospect haul if we did hypothetically trade Harper?  So what's this about a top-10 prospect that would help us in 2019-2022?  Which is it?

We can't. Its laughable to think we can. It was called a hypothetical. Try and keep up.

BTW, where's that list of trading partners that you said would be lining out the doors for one year of Bryce?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Exactly. If you win, people will come.

Does a top 10 prospect get us wins in 2018? Probably not. Certainly not like Harper. But does it in 2019-2022? I think so.

I don't think folks are suggesting trading Harper for a fairly high prospect and not doing anything more in terms of talent for 2018.  I think the only way the Nats would trade Harper would be if they bring in a transitional guy to make up for much of his offense in 2018.  A guy like Martinez, who is older than Bryce and who should drop off sooner if they both age normally, but who should also be a fine bat for the near term window.  If there is an outfielder who hit like Murphy in 2015, then maybe he's a good signing rather than Martinez.  That said, they are not going to move Harper without a short-term transitional player.  I doubt they go all in on Robles for 2018.

[Slateman]

I don't think folks are suggesting trading Harper for a fairly high prospect and not doing anything more in terms of talent for 2018.  I think the only way the Nats would trade Harper would be if they bring in a transitional guy to make up for much of his offense in 2018.  A guy like Martinez, who is older than Bryce and who should drop off sooner if they both age normally, but who should also be a fine bat for the near term window.  If there is an outfielder who hit like Murphy in 2015, then maybe he's a good signing rather than Martinez.  That said, they are not going to move Harper without a short-term transitional player.  I doubt they go all in on Robles for 2018.

That has been the discussion all along. Signing a player like Martinez and using the long term savings to keep Rendon here.

[Expos]

That has been the discussion all along. Signing a player like Martinez and using the long term savings to keep Rendon here.

Exactly.

And when Zimm is retired in 2 years JD moves to 1st and Robles starts in RF.

It's too easy.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

We can't. Its laughable to think we can. It was called a hypothetical. Try and keep up.

BTW, where's that list of trading partners that you said would be lining out the doors for one year of Bryce?

You asking me for a list of teams that would be interested in Harper is dumb.  I would be writing you a list of every MLB team.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

We can't. Its laughable to think we can. It was called a hypothetical. Try and keep up.

BTW, where's that list of trading partners that you said would be lining out the doors for one year of Bryce?

What is the point of the hypothetical if it's not at all plausible according to you?  You talk yourself in circles.

[Slateman]

You asking me for a list of teams that would be interested in Harper is dumb.  I would be writing you a list of every MLB team.

That's not what I asked.

Yes. Make a list of teams that have a top prospect and are willing to trade for 1 year of Bryce Harper.

Where is the list?

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

That's not what I asked.

Where is the list?

Quit playing dumb.  Any team with a chance to contend would be interested in Harper should he be put on the trade market.  This is a stupid topic to even debate.

[Slateman]

Quit playing dumb.  Any team with a chance to contend would be interested in Harper should he be put on the trade market.  This is a stupid topic to even debate.

Except what team is giving up a "top prospect" for one year of Harper? That's been the subject of this entire debate. You believe that Harper will garner a top prospect in trade. Many do not. So, since you believe this, please provide a list of teams that have a top prospect and are willing to trade for 1 year of Bryce Harper.

[varoadking]

Except what team is giving up a "top prospect" for one year of Harper? That's been the subject of this entire debate. You believe that Harper will garner a top prospect in trade. Many do not. So, since you believe this, please provide a list of teams that have a top prospect and are willing to trade for 1 year of Bryce Harper.

There are none...

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Except what team is giving up a "top prospect" for one year of Harper? That's been the subject of this entire debate. You believe that Harper will garner a top prospect in trade. Many do not. So, since you believe this, please provide a list of teams that have a top prospect and are willing to trade for 1 year of Bryce Harper.

First, I've from the beginning said it would be foolish to trade Harper now and explained why.  However, hypothetically, I already made my point with the fact the Cubs traded the #27 prospect at the time, Gleyber Torres, for 2 months of Chapman.  2 months of a closer versus a full year of a MVP-caliber everyday player.  Hmmm...yea I'd say there's a very good change to get a top-25 prospect minimum for Harper if for some reason they wanted to deal him.

[Slateman]

First, I've from the beginning said it would be foolish to trade Harper now and explained why.  However, hypothetically, I already made my point with the fact the Cubs traded the #27 prospect at the time, Gleyber Torres, for 2 months of Chapman.  2 months of a closer versus a full year of a MVP-caliber everyday player.  Hmmm...yea I'd say there's a very good change to get a top-25 prospect minimum for Harper if for some reason they wanted to deal him.

And it was explained to you that it was an aberration in 2016 and totally dependent on the Cubs needing to commit. Case in point, this past offseason, Wade Davis went for less and David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle also went for (far) less.

So, again, which team is going to cough up a top 25 prospect for ONE year of Harper?

[HalfSmokes]

First, I've from the beginning said it would be foolish to trade Harper now and explained why.  However, hypothetically, I already made my point with the fact the Cubs traded the #27 prospect at the time, Gleyber Torres, for 2 months of Chapman.  2 months of a closer versus a full year of a MVP-caliber everyday player.  Hmmm...yea I'd say there's a very good change to get a top-25 prospect minimum for Harper if for some reason they wanted to deal him.

Closers fetch premiums at the deadline

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

And it was explained to you that it was an aberration in 2016 and totally dependent on the Cubs needing to commit. Case in point, this past offseason, Wade Davis went for less and David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle also went for (far) less.

So, again, which team is going to cough up a top 25 prospect for ONE year of Harper?

How many times do I have to say it?  ANY contending team could possibly deal a top-25 prospect for Harper.  It only takes 1.  I'm sure not every team if in the race needing a closer would've dealt a Gleyber Torres for Chapman, but the Cubs did because they were trying to break the title drought.  Yes there is a premium for closers at the deadline, but we know that because they are available at the deadline each year.  Have you EVER seen a position player the caliber of Harper on the tarde market the year before they hit free agency during the offseason?  There is nothing to compare that to, but I'm quite sure that out of the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Twins, Astros, Angels, Cubs, and Dodgers that somebody would make a big move and offer a top-25 range prospect at least.  Even if you don't have a black hole in the OF, you still acquire Harper and then you can trade from your excess of other OFs for somebody else.  At least 1 of those teams would feel a MVP-caliber addition to their everyday lineup would put them over the top.  Not every top-25 prospect is a "can't miss" guy.  We obviously felt Giolitto wasn't.  I bet we'd have given Gioitto up for the likes of a Bryce Harper for one year hypothetically.

[Slateman]

How many times do I have to say it?  ANY contending team could possibly deal a top-25 prospect for Harper.  It only takes 1.  I'm sure not every team if in the race needing a closer would've dealt a Gleyber Torres for Chapman, but the Cubs did because they were trying to break the title drought.  Yes there is a premium for closers at the deadline, but we know that because they are available at the deadline each year.  Have you EVER seen a position player the caliber of Harper on the tarde market the year before they hit free agency during the offseason?  There is nothing to compare that to, but I'm quite sure that out of the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Twins, Astros, Angels, Cubs, and Dodgers that somebody would make a big move and offer a top-25 range prospect at least.  Even if you don't have a black hole in the OF, you still acquire Harper and then you can trade from your excess of other OFs for somebody else.  At least 1 of those teams would feel a MVP-caliber addition to their everyday lineup would put them over the top.  Not every top-25 prospect is a "can't miss" guy.  We obviously felt Giolitto wasn't.  I bet we'd have given Gioitto up for the likes of a Bryce Harper for one year hypothetically.

So what team?

[aBaltoNat]

This is cracking me up.

[Ray D]

This is the  "2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread".  If it was the "should we trade Harper thread" I wouldn't complain, I'd just ignore the thread.  I don't want to ignore it because there might occasionally be a post based on reality.  This trade Harper discussion is pure fantasy.  Could the Mods please move it all to another thread  please?

[imref]

http://nypost.com/2017/11/14/nationals-starting-to-weigh-bryce-harper-mega-deal/

All it says is that Rizzo intends to sit down with Boras and Harper in the off season and start talking about a deal.

[Slateman]

This is the  "2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread".  If it was the "should we trade Harper thread" I wouldn't complain, I'd just ignore the thread.  I don't want to ignore it because there might occasionally be a post based on reality.  This trade Harper discussion is pure fantasy.  Could the Mods please move it all to another thread  please?

Ur a ninny

http://nypost.com/2017/11/14/nationals-starting-to-weigh-bryce-harper-mega-deal/

All it says is that Rizzo intends to sit down with Boras and Harper in the off season and start talking about a deal.

I mean, didn't they do that last year?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I mean, didn't they do that last year?

yes, but this time Rizzo is doing it with the right gesture. That makes all the difference.

[LoveAngelos]

What has Bryce done to help us win?  How can you take anybody seriously who says this?

Trading Harper makes perfect sense but only if they acquired Stanton who is under contract for years at a lower costs than what Harper will cost and is more clutch with the bat in critical situations.

If your talking playoffs asking "What has HArper done to help us win is a legitimate inquiry but anyone who thinks I spout heresy may  feel free to block me

[Slateman]

Trading Harper makes perfect sense but only if they acquired Stanton who is under contract for years at a lower costs than what Harper will cost and is more clutch with the bat in critical situations.

If your talking playoffs asking "What has HArper done to help us win is a legitimate inquiry but anyone who thinks I spout heresy may  feel free to block me

Exactly how do we measure clutch?