Harper trade speculation (breakout from off-season thread)

[Ray D]

I'm pretty sure Stanton in Miami is better for jersey sales than Harper.

Except everyone who wants a Stanton shirt has one.  They would all then have to buy a Harper shirt.  (Like when they changed Michael Jordan's number.)

[Slateman]

Except everyone who wants a Stanton shirt has one.  They would all then have to buy a Harper shirt.  (Like when they changed Michael Jordan's number.)

Harper isn't Jordan. No one will care about Harper on a sub .500 team

[JCA-CrystalCity]

How does it better position for the future to give major long-term money to somebody in their 30s in JD versus Bryce at 24?  That is only if you assume JD wants to come here and Bryce is 100% gone.  The JD contract could become very, very bad in a few years.  It almost certainly will be bad after 3 or 4 years. 

oh, I'm not saying it is an airtight case, but if a Bryce extension can't get done before the season (or look likely based on Rizzo and the Lerners' assessment of the situation), then I think the prospects you could pick up would cushion the outyears of a JD contract.  You know more about contracts than I do (I mean it, you do some work in the industry I think you said), but you could perhaps structure it so it is likely he opts out after 3 if you really don't want to be stuck with Werth 2 in 2024.  Knowing the way the Lerners operate, give him $35MM a year for the first 3 years, with $15MM a year deferred until retirement, and then 5 more years at $20MM a year.  Boras gets him the $200MM contract, some killer nominal pay up front, and, if he's good enough to look like he'll keep on playing for multiple years, a chance to beat those last 5 years on the market.

[Slateman]

oh, I'm not saying it is an airtight case, but if a Bryce extension can't get done before the season (or look likely based on Rizzo and the Lerners' assessment of the situation), then I think the prospects you could pick up would cushion the outyears of a JD contract.  You know more about contracts than I do (I mean it, you do some work in the industry I think you said), but you could perhaps structure it so it is likely he opts out after 3 if you really don't want to be stuck with Werth 2 in 2024.  Knowing the way the Lerners operate, give him $35MM a year for the first 3 years, with $15MM a year deferred until retirement, and then 5 more years at $20MM a year.  Boras gets him the $200MM contract, some killer nominal pay up front, and, if he's good enough to look like he'll keep on playing for multiple years, a chance to beat those last 5 years on the market.

I still don't see what prospects your getting for a year of Harper. He's more valuable at the deadline than in the offseason.

And if we're dropping another big contract, get Hosmer and play him in LF. Put Eaton in RF where he belongs. When Zimmerman goes down, you move Hosmer to 1B and call up Robles.

[Slateman]

Garbage.

This team is still a contender and likely division champs without Harper.

This season we will have Eaton and his 5 WAR. We will have a healthy Turner at the top of the lineup. We will have Taylor who looks to be a star in CF for the whole season. We hopefully won't be trotting out AJ Cole or Edwin Jackson as the 4th / 5th starters. We will have a closer who won't blow 20 games.

Plus, it isn't just about this season. Trading Harper means we can turn our attention to signing Rendon Long term who arguably has a bigger impact on this team than Harper. If we sign Harper say goodbye to Rendon. We can also sign a top starting pitcher like Lance Lynn because we know we won't have an albatross contract next year from Harper.

185 mil to JD over 7 years
185 mil to Rendon over 7 years
45 mil to Lynn over 3 years
1 top prospect for Harper

Is world's better than

400+ mil to Harper.

I'd still take one top prospect for Harper right now than lose him for nothing because we are one of the few teams that can do alot of damage without him. But put him on a team on the cusp like Boston for 163 and he may take them over the top.

Or say a team like the Blue Jays who have money to spend call and offer us Pillar or Osuna. He would make the Jays contenders in that division, sell seats and take them over the top.

Replace Martinez with Hosmer and give Lynn's money to Rendon

[Expos]

Replace Martinez with Hosmer and give Lynn's money to Rendon

Sure. Hosmer would be a good fit on this team. A signed Rendon and a bat to replace Harper plus let's say one top prospect for Harper is better than playing Harper for this year and losing him for nothing.

What will Rendon command? 200 mil +??

Again, I'm all for re-signing Harper but not for the  $$ he will command.

[Elvir Ovcina]

ARod's contract today would be worth 360+ million. He was traded after his third year, so there would be approximately 260 million left on it. How many teams can eat that today?

That was exactly the point: not many. 

[Expos]

I'm in Canada and if the Blue Jays got Harper the fan base here in the entire country would go bananas. All this country talks about are the Jays and Leafs.

The ticket sales would be insane. As would the merchandise. Even if it was one year. But they have the money to keep him if he wants to play up here.

I'm sure they would do the following deal:

Closer- Roberto Osuna

5th ranked prospect OF Anthony Alford
Age 23. mashed Double-A (.325/.411/.455) broke his hamate 8 bats into AAA.  Crazy power

8th ranked prospect RHP TJ Zeuch
Age 22, first round pick in 2016 from University of Pittsburgh; 3.23 ERA in 53 innings in High-A, 42/14 K/BB

11th ranked prospect SS Bo Bichette
Age 19, second round pick in 2016, son of Dante Bichette; ridiculous season, hitting .385/.444/.606 between Low-A and High-A and was over .400 for much of the spring; 15 steals, 32 doubles, 11 homers; maybe he doesn’t stay at shortstop long-term but with the bat that doesn’t really matter; has blown every expectation out of the water

We get our young closer of the future and setup man for Doolittle or vice versa and 3 good young prospects.  The Jays get the whole country talking about them and will make piles of $$ and Harper would help them battle the Sox and Yankees.

Without the Harper extension looming we can sign Silver Slugger Eric Hosmer or JD Martinez and extend Rendon and possibly add another starter.

We still contend this year and we are set up for the long term.

Done.

[nfotiu]

I'm in Canada and if the Blue Jays got Harper the fan base here in the entire country would go bananas. All this country talks about are the Jays and Leafs.

The ticket sales would be insane. As would the merchandise. Even if it was one year. But they have the money to keep him if he wants to play up here.

I'm sure they would do the following deal:

Closer- Roberto Osuna

5th ranked prospect OF Anthony Alford
Age 23. mashed Double-A (.325/.411/.455) broke his hamate 8 bats into AAA.  Crazy power

8th ranked prospect RHP TJ Zeuch
Age 22, first round pick in 2016 from University of Pittsburgh; 3.23 ERA in 53 innings in High-A, 42/14 K/BB

11th ranked prospect SS Bo Bichette
Age 19, second round pick in 2016, son of Dante Bichette; ridiculous season, hitting .385/.444/.606 between Low-A and High-A and was over .400 for much of the spring; 15 steals, 32 doubles, 11 homers; maybe he doesn’t stay at shortstop long-term but with the bat that doesn’t really matter; has blown every expectation out of the water

We get our young closer of the future and setup man for Doolittle or vice versa and 3 good young prospects.  The Jays get the whole country talking about them and will make piles of $$ and Harper would help them battle the Sox and Yankees.

Without the Harper extension looming we can sign Silver Slugger Eric Hosmer or JD Martinez and extend Rendon and possibly add another starter.

We still contend this year and we are set up for the long term.

Done.

There's no way in hell that the Blue Jays would even give up half of that.   Blue Jays fans would not go bananas over a 1 year rental of Harper added to a team that lost the division by 17 games last year.  They would probably think that their GM has lost their mind.

To even break even above Harper's 21 million salary, they'd have to sell in excess of 6000 seats per game over what they'd have done without him.  I can't see anything close to that happening.

1 year of Harper is probably worth more, both financially and on the field, to the Nationals than he is to anyone else.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

What team?

Why are you playing dumb?  You want me to make a list of teams that would have interest in Bryce Harper?  Should I also make you a list of men that would like to sleep with Kate Upton?

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I love JD Martinez, but if you expect anything similar to this year’s production over the life of a contract, you’re crazy. He’s 30 and already plays bad defense. He’s a definite downgrade. The problem with trading Harper is that any move will make you worse for next year, which is supposedly a year where the Nats should try to win. If Harper leaves, then go with an outfield of Taylor, Robles, Eaton and Goodwin. This team has too many good outfielders to be dropping that much money on an old one who can’t play defense.

Exactly right.

[Expos]

There's no way in hell that the Blue Jays would even give up half of that.   Blue Jays fans would not go bananas over a 1 year rental of Harper added to a team that lost the division by 17 games last year.  They would probably think that their GM has lost their mind.

To even break even above Harper's 21 million salary, they'd have to sell in excess of 6000 seats per game over what they'd have done without him.  I can't see anything close to that happening.

1 year of Harper is probably worth more, both financially and on the field, to the Nationals than he is to anyone else.

Bautista and his 15 mil are off the books so they add 6 mil in salary for Harper. Bid deal.

Sanchez and Happ were out most of the year as was Tulo and Donaldson. If they were healthy there is no way they lose that division by 17 games.

They have Sanchez, Stroman, Happ and Estrada. Donaldson, Smoak, Tulo, Morales, Pillar, Martin and Goins. They need some relievers but that is a very good team. They are one of the teams that if they added Harper would take them over the top IMO.

I think you are underestimating the fan base this team has in Canada. They keep their top 4 prospects and give up a young closer who struggled at times last year and 5th, 8th and 11th best prospects.

This is a deal that I think the Jays and their ownership group Rogers would jump all over.

[bluestreak]

Bautista and his 15 mil are off the books so they add 6 mil in salary for Harper. Bid deal.

Sanchez and Happ were out most of the year as was Tulo and Donaldson. If they were healthy there is no way they lose that division by 17 games.

They have Sanchez, Stroman, Happ and Estrada. Donaldson, Smoak, Tulo, Morales, Pillar, Martin and Goins. They need some relievers but that is a very good team. They are one of the teams that if they added Harper would take them over the top IMO.

I think you are underestimating the fan base this team has in Canada. They keep their top 4 prospects and give up a young closer who struggled at times last year and 5th, 8th and 11th best prospects.

This is a deal that I think the Jays and their ownership group Rogers would jump all over.

Would you give up Doolittle, Soto, Fedde and Raudy Reed for Manny Machado? Or one year of Kris Bryant?
That’s the equivalent of the trade you are proposing.

[bluestreak]

The other thing about trading Harper. All of the non-WNFF fans would be apoplectic. You would have a complete fan mutiny. And justifiably so.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

oh, I'm not saying it is an airtight case, but if a Bryce extension can't get done before the season (or look likely based on Rizzo and the Lerners' assessment of the situation), then I think the prospects you could pick up would cushion the outyears of a JD contract.  You know more about contracts than I do (I mean it, you do some work in the industry I think you said), but you could perhaps structure it so it is likely he opts out after 3 if you really don't want to be stuck with Werth 2 in 2024.  Knowing the way the Lerners operate, give him $35MM a year for the first 3 years, with $15MM a year deferred until retirement, and then 5 more years at $20MM a year.  Boras gets him the $200MM contract, some killer nominal pay up front, and, if he's good enough to look like he'll keep on playing for multiple years, a chance to beat those last 5 years on the market.

I can see your logic now that you've expanded on it.  I don't really have any special knowledge of 200 MM contracts.  I work in finance for a brokerage firm.  I always wanted to be a sports agent growing up once I realized I wouldn't be a professional ballplayer, and when my cousin I'm close with started getting serious with her now-husband that plays professional baseball, I asked if he could hook me up with his agent.  So for the past 3 years I've been working as sort of an intern, or actually extern, on the side for that agent.  I've helped him look at a few arbitration cases for his clients, sought out potential endorsement deals, and done a lot of b!tch work like get players hotel rooms and concert tickets.  I did do the legwork on what turned out to be a few pretty big endorsement deals for a guy on the Jays when he was a rookie.  He's become a pretty big star now.  My path to actually being employed and paid by this guy is recruiting clients.  I have recruited a couple of local kids here in Louisville that didn't sign out of high school but play for Louisville.  Hopefully they become stars down the line. 

[Expos]

Would you give up Doolittle, Soto, Fedde and Raudy Reed for Manny Machado? Or one year of Kris Bryant?
That’s the equivalent of the trade you are proposing.

For Machado or Bryant?? Absolutely.  In a heartbeat.

Especially if that player filled a huge need and helped us to go to the next level.

Prospects are hit or miss. If I had a chance to win now I'm doing what it takes.

[Slateman]

Why are you playing dumb?  You want me to make a list of teams that would have interest in Bryce Harper?  Should I also make you a list of men that would like to sleep with Kate Upton?

Yes. Make a list of teams that have a top prospect and are willing to trade for 1 year of Bryce Harper.

[zimm_da_kid]

For Machado or Bryant?? Absolutely.  In a heartbeat.

Especially if that player filled a huge need and helped us to go to the next level.

Prospects are hit or miss. If I had a chance to win now I'm doing what it takes.

I would make that deal as well.  Especially for Bryant.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs was asked about what Machado would bring in trade with 1 year left.  This might be useful to compare to Bryce:

Raindog: What kind of prospects would Machado bring back if dealt now?  What kind if dealt in July?

 


9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Figure Machado will get paid something like, I don’t know, $20 million in this last year of team control

 


9:34
Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably going to be worth something more like $50 million

 


9:35
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you’re looking at a package headlined by a clearly elite prospect. It would be headlined by a good pitching prospect or a fairly good position-player prospect, and then you’d get another couple interesting prospects to fill out the package

 


9:36
Jeff Sullivan: This is the trouble with trading guys in their contract seasons. Especially position players, who you can’t leverage for a bigger price around the deadline

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I would make that deal as well.  Especially for Bryant.

Sorry, Expos.  Really not good for your argument.

[nfotiu]

For Machado or Bryant?? Absolutely.  In a heartbeat.

Especially if that player filled a huge need and helped us to go to the next level.

Prospects are hit or miss. If I had a chance to win now I'm doing what it takes.

I feel like you are contradicting yourself with this post.  If you'd give up those guys for Machado or Bryant, then you'd give up those guys for Bryce Harper too if you are looking at it unemotionally.   

Harper is more likely to push us over the top to the next level next year than he is the Blue Jays.   He would have more of an impact here financially than he would on the Blue Jays.  I just don't see a lot of teams bidding much of anything for one year of Harper and think the Blue Jays is a terrible example.  To answer your earlier question, I lived in Canada half my life, and I just can't imagine that a single year of Harper would create all that much excitement.  If they signed him long term, then sure that would generate some excitement.  I don't see Toronto thinking they have a chance to sign him though.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Would you give up Doolittle, Soto, Fedde and Raudy Reed for Manny Machado? Or one year of Kris Bryant?
That’s the equivalent of the trade you are proposing.

No, it's not.  The player and prospects in the Blue Jays package are well better than that package (irrespective of the numerical rank), except Soto - who just missed 3/4 of the season in low-A - and the Blue Jays are far worse going into the trade than the Nats are - they're not even arguably one superstar away from serious championship contention.   His proposal is far worse for Toronto than those would be for the Nats.  I'd at least have a brief thought about the packages you've proposed if I were the Nats

[UMDNats]

The Jays are like the 15th-most likely team I'd see us trading Harper to

[Slateman]

Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs was asked about what Machado would bring in trade with 1 year left.  This might be useful to compare to Bryce:

I'd say Machado is extremely similar. While his bat is not as good as Bryce's, his defense is far superior, and the fact that he could play shortstop only increases his value.  I also agree with Sullivan. I just don't think you're going to get that blue chip, sure fire prospect. You might get a decent  one (like a Fedde or a Soto) and some intriguing ones. But I can't see a team giving up a Moncada, Robles, or Byron Buxton type.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

The other thing about trading Harper. All of the non-WNFF fans would be apoplectic. You would have a complete fan mutiny. And justifiably so.

This. There's going to be fan mutiny if they trade him or they let him walk. They know this. They'll pay him.