The opposite is likely true of Harper. He's just entering his peak years.
Respectfully, we don't know this. It might likely be true, but it is uncertain given his history. Ryan Zimmerman was coming off back to back hall of fame level seasons at the age Harper will be entering free agency. Bryce will have to put up another MVP-level season to reach the production level of Andruw Jones at the same age. Grazy Sizemore. David Wright. Etc.
If he was consistently healthy and a consistent MVP candidate, paying him $500 million wouldn't even be a question in my mind. But given who he actually has been, I feel like its a huge gamble. Maybe a gamble worth taking, maybe not, but not a sure thing.
