Author Topic: 2018 Prospect Lists  (Read 3720 times)

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Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #25: January 29, 2018, 11:18:03 AM »
Yeah, he's a pretty ridiculous hitter. With health last season, is it crazy to think there might not be much to separate him from Vlad Jr.?

Well, yeah.  They're basically the same age and Vlad Jr. killed high A as an 18 year old.  Soto is missing a year of development and the 500 plate appearances that come with it.   He's now effectively a year behind.  Vlad Jr. should be in AA to start the year.  Soto should be in Potomac, maybe, if he shows he's 100% healthy and kills minor league camp.  He barely had 100 at-bats last year.  Still a tremendous prospect, but those Guerrero numbers are unreal, and the fact that his father is who he is lends them an air of additional credibility that lessens the flame-out risk.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #26: January 29, 2018, 11:35:55 AM »
Count me as meh on Fedde. He's 24 and has mediocre/meh numbers all through the minors. No way he is a top-100 guy.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #27: January 29, 2018, 01:16:09 PM »
Well, yeah.  They're basically the same age and Vlad Jr. killed high A as an 18 year old.  Soto is missing a year of development and the 500 plate appearances that come with it.   He's now effectively a year behind.  Vlad Jr. should be in AA to start the year.  Soto should be in Potomac, maybe, if he shows he's 100% healthy and kills minor league camp.  He barely had 100 at-bats last year.  Still a tremendous prospect, but those Guerrero numbers are unreal, and the fact that his father is who he is lends them an air of additional credibility that lessens the flame-out risk.

I said with health last season. They both started 2017 at low-A at age-18. Here are their stats in Low-A.

Soto: .360/.427/.523
Vlad: .316/.409/.480

I think it's obvious Soto would have gotten promoted to High-A at midseason, just like Vlad Jr. We can only speculate whether Soto would have performed in High-A.

But again, that's why I said "with health".

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #28: January 29, 2018, 02:20:00 PM »
Count me as meh on Fedde. He's 24 and has mediocre/meh numbers all through the minors. No way he is a top-100 guy.
He was a top 100 guy at the start of the 2017 season. His numbers weren't medicore/meh. Especially for a guy who missed a season to TJS

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #29: January 29, 2018, 03:47:17 PM »
I said with health last season. They both started 2017 at low-A at age-18. Here are their stats in Low-A.

Soto: .360/.427/.523
Vlad: .316/.409/.480

I think it's obvious Soto would have gotten promoted to High-A at midseason, just like Vlad Jr. We can only speculate whether Soto would have performed in High-A.

But again, that's why I said "with health".

I read "with health" as meaning "with health taken into account" not as "if he had stayed healthy," which is apparently what you meant. 

Offline UMDNats

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #30: January 29, 2018, 05:09:21 PM »
He was a top 100 guy at the start of the 2017 season. His numbers weren't medicore/meh. Especially for a guy who missed a season to TJS

He's 24. He started 2017 on the bottom-half of the top 100 and didn't do great in AAA or MLB. It's not even a big deal, he's a solid prospect but it's hard to argue he deserves accolades when nothing in his performance backs it up and he's already entering his age-25 season. There are plenty of other prospects who can make a claim for a spot who are younger or have better numbers.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #31: January 30, 2018, 01:10:30 PM »
Keith Law is really high on Yasel Antuna. He has him as #5 Nats prospect. I didn't think he was that high on the Nat's list.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #32: January 30, 2018, 02:00:58 PM »
Keith Law is really high on Yasel Antuna. He has him as #5 Nats prospect. I didn't think he was that high on the Nat's list.
if he's that valuable, he must be "Bluefin" Antuna.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #33: January 30, 2018, 08:58:39 PM »
if he's that valuable, he must be "Bluefin" Antuna.

Hopefully he's not that valuable because he's Fatty Antuna.

Offline dcpatti

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #34: January 30, 2018, 09:53:36 PM »
Maybe he’s Antuna Turner and he’s rollin on a river.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #35: January 31, 2018, 08:55:11 AM »
Maybe he’s Antuna Turner and he’s rollin on a river.
By the way, if any of you remember "Eddy and the Cruisers," the sax player was Mike Antunes from a Rhode Island band, Beaver Brown.  So was the lead singer John Cafferty (I don't know if he acted in the movie or just had his voice dubbed in).

On the Dark Side:


Doing a little googling, the soundtrack went quadruple platinum and this was the #1 song.  I guess that's why Cafferty didn't have to play free with college ID at Toad's Place anymore.  Drunkest I ever got was inhaling screwdrivers listening to NRBQ warming up for Beaver Brown.

Offline dcpatti

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #36: February 05, 2018, 11:22:38 AM »
Baseball Prospectus has 5 Nats in its Top 100 Prospects.

Victor Robles #2
Juan Soto #22
Carter Kieboom #71
Seth Romero #76
Erick Fedde #87


https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/37535/baseball-prospectus-top-101-prospects-2018-top-mlb-prospects-ronald-acuna-victor-robles-vladimir-guerrero-jr-eloy-jimenez/

Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #37: February 05, 2018, 02:53:38 PM »
FanGraphs is here
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

Robles #4
Carter Kieboom #40 (!)
Soto #50

Highlights:
"Andrew McCutchen comps have been pretty common here because Robles has a similar build and swing, but from a skillset perspective, Robles looks more like Lorenzo Cain. He’s a likely star and arguably the most polished prospect on this list."

"Kieboom, like many infielders on this list, may be able to stick at shortstop for certain teams that shift heavily or prioritize offense over defense at the position, but he fits more traditionally at second or third base, with some scouts suggesting even a corner-outfield spot. He’s got plenty of bat for any position."

"Soto has put up cartoon numbers in two short summers in pro ball, slowed by some minor injuries. He’s also limited to a corner-outfield spot, where he’s likely average at best, so there isn’t a huge margin for error in projecting him, but the bat is so advanced he’s likely to carve out a big-league career of some sort."

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #38: February 05, 2018, 06:38:33 PM »
Three in the top 50. Not bad

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #39: February 05, 2018, 09:55:35 PM »
Three in the top 50. Not bad
Not possible. Rizzo can only hit on the obvious overall number one choices.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #40: February 05, 2018, 10:05:13 PM »
Not possible. Rizzo can only hit on the obvious overall number one choices.

Are any of them hits yet?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #41: February 05, 2018, 10:12:29 PM »
Are any of them hits yet?
Just you wait. I would figure on 2 of 3 turning into good players.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #42: February 05, 2018, 10:38:15 PM »
Other than the #1 overall guys, which Rizzo draftees have developed into good major leaguers? Anthony Rendon comes to mind, but he was #6 overall. Jordan Zimmermann? Steven Souza just had a good year, and Derek Norris had a couple good years. Danny Espinosa had his moments. Drew Storen was a good reliever once. Robbie Ray turned the corner well after we traded him. I guess it's not an awful track record.

Though to be fair the GM doesn't make the picks generally (maybe the 1st round), the head of amateur scouting does.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #43: February 05, 2018, 11:01:20 PM »
Other than the #1 overall guys, which Rizzo draftees have developed into good major leaguers? Anthony Rendon comes to mind, but he was #6 overall. Jordan Zimmermann? Steven Souza just had a good year, and Derek Norris had a couple good years. Danny Espinosa had his moments. Drew Storen was a good reliever once. Robbie Ray turned the corner well after we traded him. I guess it's not an awful track record.

Though to be fair the GM doesn't make the picks generally (maybe the 1st round), the head of amateur scouting does.
Well Rendon does come to mind--he was not a no brainer given his injury history an has produced big time.  Also he has been able to flip some of these guys for major leaguers.  So they were worth something to someone.  Was Souza a Rizzo pick or before him?



Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #44: February 05, 2018, 11:39:44 PM »
I don't think you can discount the idea that trading specs who turn out to be nothing to get good MLB veterans is also a sign of good drafting. The point of drafting is to get MLB talent, whether that's through development or through tricking the other teams into acquiring the guys you drafted.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #45: February 06, 2018, 08:40:07 AM »
It took a while, but Peacock had an impressive year. Taylor at least is an MLB starting CF who also had a good year.  The Giolito gamble (knowing he likely would need TJ surgery) was a good move that helped turn into Eaton.

You might also want to give him some credit for Dipuglia's signings.  I think Castillo was saying that now half of the Nats system is from the DR.  Certainly Robles, Soto, Severino, Lopez, Read, Rivero, etc... is a nice group.  (I think Rivero was acquired in a deal with TB, maybe with Lobaton for Karns?)

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #46: February 06, 2018, 11:26:28 AM »
It took a while, but Peacock had an impressive year. Taylor at least is an MLB starting CF who also had a good year.  The Giolito gamble (knowing he likely would need TJ surgery) was a good move that helped turn into Eaton.

You might also want to give him some credit for Dipuglia's signings.  I think Castillo was saying that now half of the Nats system is from the DR.  Certainly Robles, Soto, Severino, Lopez, Read, Rivero, etc... is a nice group.  (I think Rivero was acquired in a deal with TB, maybe with Lobaton for Karns?)

He drafted guys who play in the majors- that seems like a true statement for every gm in baseball. Our farm system is perfectly respectable, nothing great, but it's fine. It's certainly not something that needs to be fawned over

Offline UMDNats

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #47: February 06, 2018, 12:03:02 PM »
Yeah, that's my overall point I guess. Our player development and drafting seems middle of the road, it's fine.

I will say that we do a good job identifying talent internationally despite little spending.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #48: February 06, 2018, 12:04:01 PM »
Just you wait. I would figure on 2 of 3 turning into good players.
YEa, when he trades them

Offline imref

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