The premise behind letting Dusty go is that we have to "get to the top" next season (where "get to the top" means at least get past the NLDS). Letting Dusty go and hiring Martinez implies the following premises(1) : Dusty is not win likely to win the NLDS next season; (2) Martinez is; and (3) Martinez is certain to win the division. I don't buy any of these three and particularly the third.
Were rolling the dice. I think with Dusty we would win the division AND the NLDS in 2018. I think with Martinez, we are likely to not even win the division. But let' say for argument sake that we are destined to win the division. We wait all regular season until the end so we can play a best of five series in order to validate this move. Maybe we'll win the NLDS. But suppose we dont'? then what? Do we fire Martinez? No? Why not?
He is not getting fired after one year no matter what happens. This is a long-term hire. That's why he got three years and an option.
