Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[HalfSmokes]

He won a MVP.  I think that is what draws the Superstar label and not a HR Derby.

he followed up a 9.3 war season with seasons at 2.9, 4.8 and 3.3 but wants to get payed based on the 9.3.

[PowerBoater69]

That's taking it a bit far.  He and Boras wants what he thinks his market value was.  The problem with getting a deal done is that I imagine that Boras and the Lerners likely have a huge discrepancy in what they think he's worth on the open market.  There is evidence that free agent signings are correcting downwards to reflect some the new business realities.   I doubt Boras and other agents are accepting that is true.   Then there is the question of what Bryce Harper really is.  He could hit .220 and be injured for half the next 5 years, or win 3 MVPs and become a first ballot HOFer.   Boras wants to get paid like he is the latter, but offers will probably be based on projections somewhere in between.   

I don't begrudge either side on this one.  It was a deal that was destined not to get done.  I think the Nats will be players on the open market, but probably not the front runners. 

Fair market value means one team out bids all others, not the home town discount that some fans appear to believe will happen.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

he followed up a 9.3 war season with seasons at 2.9, 4.8 and 3.3 but wants to get payed based on the 9.3.

He'll get paid what the market determines he's worth.  Also, that 4.8 was on it's way to being much higher with a first base bag that's not wet.  Highly paid execs and rich owners will set Harper's value.  Why the hang up on what he's asking? 

[HalfSmokes]

He'll get paid what the market determines he's worth.  Also, that 4.8 was on it's way to being much higher with a first base bag that's not wet.  Highly paid execs and rich owners will set Harper's value.  Why the hang up on what he's asking? 

because at this point he's asking with no other bidders- let the market set his worth. I doubt the 50th best offensive player lands a $500 million deal, but strange things happen 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

because at this point he's asking with no other bidders- let the market set his worth. I doubt the 50th best offensive player lands a $500 million deal, but strange things happen

Who are you arguing with?  I didn't say he gets 500 million, and I'm sure the Nats aren't going to bid against themselves. 

[Vega]

I think some unexpected team will make him a stupid offer he can’t refuse like the Padres did with Hosmer. The White Sox come to mind.

[HalfSmokes]

Who are you arguing with?  I didn't say he gets 500 million, and I'm sure the Nats aren't going to bid against themselves. 

Why the hang up on what he's asking? 

[Slateman]

he followed up a 9.3 war season with seasons at 2.9, 4.8 and 3.3 but wants to get payed based on the 9.3.

This is his worst season ever, and there are three other players in baseball that have 30+ homers and .390+ OBP.

[hotshot]

He won a MVP.  I think that is what draws the Superstar label and not a HR Derby.

I got carried away, Cory. He did have that one really great year. But one superstar year isn't quite enough to prove the point. The rest of his very good portfolio, to me, still only puts him on the fringe of superstardom. Jury across baseball is still out I think.

If he were a superstar in my definition, I wouldn't constantly be wishing any number of other Nats than Bryce were at the plate in a crucial situation, e.g., Soto, Rendon, for sure, and even Eaton, Turner. Exception is if we need a walk; then, I'm 100% in on wanting Bryce up there taking.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I got carried away, Cory. He did have that one really great year. But one superstar year isn't quite enough to prove the point. The rest of his very good portfolio, to me, still only puts him on the fringe of superstardom. Jury across baseball is still out I think.

If he were a superstar in my definition, I wouldn't constantly be wishing any number of other Nats than Bryce were at the plate in a crucial situation, e.g., Soto, Rendon, for sure, and even Eaton, Turner. Exception is if we need a walk; then, I'm 100% in on wanting Bryce up there taking.

It's semantics with arguing "superstar."  Some are beyond argument, like Trout, then others you can.  He was having a MVP-like year last year before the wet bag.

[bluestreak]

Completely goes against this idea that he'll give us a home town discount, the reality was that he wanted the Nats to pay a premium to get him back.

You have to pay a premium to keep him from hitting the market and the uncertainty that comes along with that. In 2016, after he just won the MVP? I am not surprised that number was thrown out. He basically said, "I want to hit free agency, but if you give me a number that blows me away, I'll re-sign now."

[Slateman]

Completely goes against this idea that he'll give us a home town discount, the reality was that he wanted the Nats to pay a premium to get him back.

But we knew that. Like I said, Boras is a helluva an agent

[Mattionals]

This is his worst season ever, and there are three other players in baseball that have 30+ homers and .390+ OBP.

His worst full season? 2014 was injury shortened and was his worst season. 2016 is also worse than this season, and again he probably played hurt that year too.

[Slateman]

His worst full season? 2014 was injury shortened and was his worst season. 2016 is also worse than this season, and again he probably played hurt that year too.

You get him to 155-158 games in those seasons, he likely has similar stats. Point is, at his worst, Bryce Harper will get on base at a .390 clip and hit 30+ homers over the course of a season. How many players can say that that kind of season is their floor?

[Mattionals]

You get him to 155-158 games in those seasons, he likely has similar stats. Point is, at his worst, Bryce Harper will get on base at a .390 clip and hit 30+ homers over the course of a season. How many players can say that that kind of season is their floor?

Gotcha. Yea, even given his floor he has a good amount of value. Definitely not 500M value, but he should easily eclipse what Heyward got in FA. If he is dead set on 10 years with opt outs, he beats 300M I think.

[hotshot]

It's semantics with arguing "superstar."  Some are beyond argument, like Trout, then others you can.  He was having a MVP-like year last year before the wet bag.

Eh, even Trout has only had two seasons of 100+ RBI (and one was the minimum 100). Only has 77 RBI (on 38 HR) this year with 600 PA. Over their careers, Trout averages 4 more HR a season, 6 more XBH, 14 more Runs Scored, 8 more RBI, 16 more SB, and 20 more hits.  Maybe it just seems as though Trout is on another plane because we don't see that much of him.

Manny Machado fits snugly in between Trout's and Harper's numbers. Gotta take Camden Yards into account there though. How does the Big A play for right-handed hitters?

[bluestreak]

Eh, even Trout has only had two seasons of 100+ RBI (and one was the minimum 100). Only has 77 RBI (on 38 HR) this year with 600 PA. Over their careers, Trout averages 4 more HR a season, 6 more XBH, 14 more Runs Scored, 8 more RBI, 16 more SB, and 20 more hits.  Maybe it just seems as though Trout is on another plane because we don't see that much of him.

Manny Machado fits snugly in between Trout's and Harper's numbers. Gotta take Camden Yards into account there though. How does the Big A play for right-handed hitters?

Look at OPS+ which includes park adjustment and standardizes it to an average of 100

Trout: 199 (career 175)
Machado: 145 (121)
Harper:131 (139)

[spidernat]

Look at OPS+ which includes park adjustment and standardizes it to an average of 100

Trout: 199 (career 175)
Machado: 145 (121)
Harper:131 (139)

Doesn't he also double Harper's value in WAR?

[bluestreak]

Doesn't he also double Harper's value in WAR?

bWAR

Trout 10.1 (64.2 Career)
Machado 5.7 (33.7)
Harper 1.0 (27.2)

[spidernat]

what does bWAR mean?

[bluestreak]

what does bWAR mean?

There are two measurements of WAR

Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR or rWAR)
Fangraphs WAR (fWAR)

There are some differences, which I why I try to cite which one I am using when I cite it. They calculate fielding and baserunning differently. The differences in the two measures is more pronounced in pitchers, which is why I don't like it as a stat for pitchers as much.
Honestly, I think that WAR is never going to be fully adopted by the die hards until they come up with one freaking stat.

But if you're interested here are the three above guys in Fangraphs WAR.

Trout 9.7 (64.6 Career)
Machado 6.0 (30.0)
Harper 3.3 (30.4) 

[spidernat]

OK but the bWAR you posted for Harper seems wrong


Trout 10.1 (64.2 Career)
Machado 5.7 (33.7)
Harper 1.0 (27.2)

[blue911]

OK but the bWAR you posted for Harper seems wrong


Trout 10.1 (64.2 Career)
Machado 5.7 (33.7)
Harper 1.0 (27.2)

It's because WAR isn't supposed to be used as an end-all metric to determine a players value.

[bluestreak]

OK but the bWAR you posted for Harper seems wrong


Trout 10.1 (64.2 Career)
Machado 5.7 (33.7)
Harper 1.0 (27.2)

Weird, I know, and one of those things I was talking about, but it's right.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml

[bluestreak]

It's because WAR isn't supposed to be used as an end-all metric to determine a players value.

I agree. Smart folks use a bunch of stats. Like I like to use wRC+ in addition to OPS+ and WAR (I am not saying I am smart). But if you are going to use one stat to describe player value, I think WAR is the best we have available, despite it's flaws. it attempts to add in all facets of a ballplayer.