2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread

[Mattionals]

Synergistic effect. The other starters have less pressure on them. I think 80 wins is their max unless they also sign Cobb.

And I don't see Cobb being much better than Velasquez, Pivetta, or Eickhoff.

I mean, projections never show below replacement level, and for pitchers with more than 90 innings pitched last year, only 9 had negative WAR. Granted 3 of those all pitched on the White Sox, but I think you would expect that a team won't be sticking with awful pitchers to "figure it out" unless they are on large deals, and the Phillies are only long term committed to Arrieta.

They need a real ace, and unfortunately for them, they need Sixto Sanchez to be that guy and be that guy immediately. I also don't see Sanchez being a top of the rotation type guy, but he is very young and could well turn into one, just not by 2019. That means they would have to trade their prospects to get an ace, and I just think they aren't going to do that.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Folks on MLB XM (this morning) think they have a chance.  They were projected at 75 wins before the trade, Arrieta brings them another 5 (which I thought a bit excessive, but possible) and with some additional luck they could win 85, which puts them squarely in the wild card race.

A chance, sure, but they'd need a lot of stuff to go right.  Going from a sub-.500 projection to the playoffs with the addition of just one ~3 win player - close to his projections, which seem pretty reasonable - requires more than a bit of luck.  With Arrieta added, they're at about 78, still below .500. 

The standard deviation on team wins projections (which are really done in runs) is between 68 and 70 runs, or roughly 7 wins, and the distribution is approximately normal.  Center that on a mean of 78 wins, and a full standard deviation above that is exactly our mythical 85-win wildcard team.  Because it's a normal distribution, we know that the chance of overachieving by 1 standard deviation or more is slightly under 16%.  Despite the fact that it occurred last season, 85 wins does not usually make the playoffs: the odds are about 45% under the current format.

 Thus, the odds of the Phillies overachieving this year to the point of winning 85 AND 85 simultaneously being good enough to make the playoffs are roughly 7.1%.  Not impossible - and teams with lots of inexperienced players are harder for statistical projections than are more veteran teams - but it's reasonably low likelihood.  Not coincidentally, most sportsbooks in Vegas have them right now at 7 or 8 to 1 to make the playoffs, right in line with my math above. 

[Natsinpwc]

And I don't see Cobb being much better than Velasquez, Pivetta, or Eickhoff.

I mean, projections never show below replacement level, and for pitchers with more than 90 innings pitched last year, only 9 had negative WAR. Granted 3 of those all pitched on the White Sox, but I think you would expect that a team won't be sticking with awful pitchers to "figure it out" unless they are on large deals, and the Phillies are only long term committed to Arrieta.

They need a real ace, and unfortunately for them, they need Sixto Sanchez to be that guy and be that guy immediately. I also don't see Sanchez being a top of the rotation type guy, but he is very young and could well turn into one, just not by 2019. That means they would have to trade their prospects to get an ace, and I just think they aren't going to do that.

Velasquez has good stuff but can't locate it and cannot get past the Third inning most times. Eichoff regressed last year. Cobb would help the rotation.

Sanchez is the future. Why do you not think he is a top of rotation guy?

[NJ Ave]

Sanchez is the future. Why do you not think he is a top of rotation guy?

There is a lot that can go wrong for 19-year old, 6-foot tall pitchers who throw 100 miles an hour in A-ball. That's why you don't see a lot of 25-year old, 6-foot tall pitchers who throw 100 miles an hour in MLB.

[UMDNats]

I pretty much am of the belief that until a pitching prospect does it in the majors for a full year, you cannot pencil them in to any rotation. Even then, it's in pencil, not pen, because arm injuries are a nag.

[Mattionals]

There is a lot that can go wrong for 19-year old, 6-foot tall pitchers who throw 100 miles an hour in A-ball. That's why you don't see a lot of 25-year old, 6-foot tall pitchers who throw 100 miles an hour in MLB.

This. Also, he might have the upside to be a top of the rotation guy, but he won't be in 2019, and might not be in 2020. We are trying to see when the Phillies will be competing for a championship, and I think that everything would have to break right for them to get there without a top of the rotation pitcher. Look at how long it takes guys to develop into true top rotation pieces. Most guys have to work up to it, even with insane raw stuff. It takes time to hone how to pitch instead of just throwing.

[hotshot]

There is a lot that can go wrong for 19-year old, 6-foot tall pitchers who throw 100 miles an hour in A-ball. That's why you don't see a lot of 25-year old, 6-foot tall pitchers who throw 100 miles an hour in MLB.

How hard did Tom "The Blade" Hall throw in his prime? He was 6'0, 150.

[Natsinpwc]

I pretty much am of the belief that until a pitching prospect does it in the majors for a full year, you cannot pencil them in to any rotation. Even then, it's in pencil, not pen, because arm injuries are a nag.

So where do the good pitchers in MLB come from? And don't tell me Japan.

Is there any actual data to show that hitting prospects fare better in the big leagues than pitchers? I would assume that would be true due to injuries.

[UMDNats]

So where do the good pitchers in MLB come from? And don't tell me Japan.

Is there any actual data to show that hitting prospects fare better in the big leagues than pitchers? I would assume that would be true due to injuries.

i'm saying pitchers have a short life-span if they make it. i've heard of countless low-A arms throwing high-90s who never get out of AA.

guys come and go so fast usually. might be mind-facting but a top-50 prospect OF probably has a better bet of making it long-term than a top-50 pitcher.

[Natsinpwc]

i'm saying pitchers have a short life-span if they make it. i've heard of countless low-A arms throwing high-90s who never get out of AA.

guys come and go so fast usually. might be mind-facting but a top-50 prospect OF probably has a better bet of making it long-term than a top-50 pitcher.

Here is a link to the Phillies pitchers ERA last year. Velasquez was over 5. Pivetta over 6. Eichoff almost 5. Arietta is superior to these guys. And so would Cobb be. I think they will have to move Velasquez to the pen. We will see what happens. I don't think they are ready yet to contend for a wild card but maybe next year. Having Santana and a full year of Hoskins and Altherr will help. Alfaro strikes out way too much and is not good defensively so not sure that's much of an upgrade. Franco could do better than last year but another wild swinger. If he hasn't got it by now he probably never will.

http://m.espn.com/mlb/teamstats?teamId=22&season=2017&category=ERA

[Mattionals]

Here is a link to the Phillies pitchers ERA last year. Velasquez was over 5. Pivetta over 6. Eichoff almost 5. Arietta is superior to these guys. And so would Cobb be. I think they will have to move Velasquez to the pen. We will see what happens. I don't think they are ready yet to contend for a wild card but maybe next year. Having Santana and a full year of Hoskins and Altherr will help. Alfaro strikes out way too much and is not good defensively so not sure that's much of an upgrade. Franco could do better than last year but another wild swinger. If he hasn't got it by now he probably never will.

http://m.espn.com/mlb/teamstats?teamId=22&season=2017&category=ERA

Fangraphs projections for their likely starters behind Nola and Arrieta:

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11189&position=P
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15454&position=P
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12664&position=P

Essentially they are saying that Pivetta and Eickhoff are likely to have better seasons and Velasquez could put it all together but is on the edge. Cobb is basically a known quantity for about 2 WAR. Each of those guys could hit that, so adding Cobb could be worth 0 to 2 wins by knocking one of those three out. Yes Arrieta is better than all of them, but was anyone questioning that?

[Elvir Ovcina]

Here is a link to the Phillies pitchers ERA last year. Velasquez was over 5. Pivetta over 6. Eichoff almost 5. Arietta is superior to these guys. And so would Cobb be. I think they will have to move Velasquez to the pen. We will see what happens. I don't think they are ready yet to contend for a wild card but maybe next year. Having Santana and a full year of Hoskins and Altherr will help. Alfaro strikes out way too much and is not good defensively so not sure that's much of an upgrade. Franco could do better than last year but another wild swinger. If he hasn't got it by now he probably never will.

http://m.espn.com/mlb/teamstats?teamId=22&season=2017&category=ERA

Not yet, no way.  Dude was a league-average starter at 24, has good stuff, and his bad year last year was a season in which he was hurt for half of it.  His off-speed stuff was mostly terrible last year, which makes a lot of sense if the media reports that his finger was so bad he could barely feel it are to be believed.   This is pretty much the perfect situation in which to give him 15-20 starts and see if he can still do it.

[Mattionals]

Trevor Gott showing improvements in ST. Probably ticketed for AAA again, but wouldn't be surprised if he was first up. I think Gott, Suero, and Glover (if he is ever healthy) would be good to supplant poor performances of Benoit and Kelley.

I get the idea that this is the pen to start the year:

Doolittle, Madson, Kintzler, Benoit, Kelley, Romero, Solis. That would mean that Grace would have to pass through waivers, but I honestly see him as a replacement level arm anyway.

[Natsinpwc]

Trevor Gott showing improvements in ST. Probably ticketed for AAA again, but wouldn't be surprised if he was first up. I think Gott, Suero, and Glover (if he is ever healthy) would be good to supplant poor performances of Benoit and Kelley.

I get the idea that this is the pen to start the year:

Doolittle, Madson, Kintzler, Benoit, Kelley, Romero, Solis. That would mean that Grace would have to pass through waivers, but I honestly see him as a replacement level arm anyway.

Romero looks terrible today.

[Natsinpwc]

Not yet, no way.  Dude was a league-average starter at 24, has good stuff, and his bad year last year was a season in which he was hurt for half of it.  His off-speed stuff was mostly terrible last year, which makes a lot of sense if the media reports that his finger was so bad he could barely feel it are to be believed.   This is pretty much the perfect situation in which to give him 15-20 starts and see if he can still do it.

They will give him some starts this year. I'm not optimistic. Throws way too many pitches. You are not going to last as a starter when you reach 100 pitches by the Fourth or fifith inning every game.

[Mattionals]

They will give him some starts this year. I'm not optimistic. Throws way too many pitches. You are not going to last as a starter when you reach 100 pitches by the Fourth or fifith inning every game.

That might not be accurate anymore. The trend with starters is less innings but overall more quality innings. If a guy is only effective for 4 or 5 innings, that is fine if you build a bullpen to back that pitcher up. Look at what the Rays are doing with a 4 man rotation and an entire bullpen day. The Rockies are basically set up to give around 30 starts per starter and just over 5 innings per start. Then add in a bullpen that will be first in usage surely, but maybe you start seeing relievers go multiple innings, 2 or 3 a game, so the amount of pitchers used stays around the same. Basically go with 10 guys who are essentially only good two times through the order, and stagger them so two pitch in one game. That lessens the dependency on "matchups" and still keeps a defined closer.

I fully expect to see Jon Gray pitch 5 innings, then 3 innings by Chris Rusin, and it gets closed out by Wade Davis.

[Natsinpwc]

That might not be accurate anymore. The trend with starters is less innings but overall more quality innings. If a guy is only effective for 4 or 5 innings, that is fine if you build a bullpen to back that pitcher up. Look at what the Rays are doing with a 4 man rotation and an entire bullpen day. The Rockies are basically set up to give around 30 starts per starter and just over 5 innings per start. Then add in a bullpen that will be first in usage surely, but maybe you start seeing relievers go multiple innings, 2 or 3 a game, so the amount of pitchers used stays around the same. Basically go with 10 guys who are essentially only good two times through the order, and stagger them so two pitch in one game. That lessens the dependency on "matchups" and still keeps a defined closer.

I fully expect to see Jon Gray pitch 5 innings, then 3 innings by Chris Rusin, and it gets closed out by Wade Davis.

I stand by what I said--he was not getting through the lineup even one time effectively last year let alone two. 

[mitlen]

I stand by what I said--he was not getting through the lineup even one time effectively last year let alone two. 

OT  Missus and I went to talk to her money people about an IRA.   The guy who talked to us (face to face) and his contact (conference call) are both from Cincinnati.    Between financial opportunities/choices, we talked Pittsburgh/Cincinnati sports.   

[Natsinpwc]

OT  Missus and I went to talk to her money people about an IRA.   The guy who talked to us (face to face) and his contact (conference call) are both from Cincinnati.    Between financial opportunities/choices, we talked Pittsburgh/Cincinnati sports.   

With the pro teams here it had to have been a short conversation. I believe two of the Reds starting pitchers are already on the shelf.

[varoadking]

OT  Missus and I went to talk to her money people about an IRA.   The guy who talked to us (face to face) and his contact (conference call) are both from Cincinnati.    Between financial opportunities/choices, we talked Pittsburgh/Cincinnati sports.   

Bet the missus really enjoyed that...

[Natsinpwc]

The MLB Network 30 teams in 30 days focuses on the Nationals Friday night at 7.

[mitlen]

With the pro teams here it had to have been a short conversation. I believe two of the Reds starting pitchers are already on the shelf.

We even talked WHA and Cincinnati basketball.   He took time to google my dad's cousin's kid who played for the Bearcats in the 60s.

Bet the missus really enjoyed that...

She probably enjoyed the sports more than the financial part.   

[Kevrock]

EXTENDDDDDDDDDDDD HARPER!!!

[Kevrock]

Hey boys,

 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

OT  Missus and I went to talk to her money people about an IRA.   

I used to know a guy in Boston who was a money man for the IRA.