Author Topic: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread  (Read 106173 times)

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Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #150: October 27, 2017, 01:36:32 PM »
I didn't want to muck up the manager thread with player stuff, so here are my current thoughts on Jake Arrieta.

The Nats need at one more starter for next season. Gio's contract is up after 2018. Ross won't be back until 2019. Fedde still needs seasoning in the minors. That leaves the door open for a FA pitcher this offseason.

Sorting for 160 IP and FA, the top guys basically come down to Darvish, Tanaka, and Arrieta. The next tier is Cobb, Chacin, Cashner, Vargas, and Lynn. Vargas and Cashner jump out as shaky signings because of their injury history. Cobb has the upside, but also comes with his own baggage. That leaves Chacin and Lynn, both very interesting and both likely to get nabbed by a mid market team early, at least I suspect.

Darvish and Tanaka might switch teams, but there will likely be many bidders. Arrieta, as a Boras client, will try and get the Strasburg deal, positioned as a top tier starter. No one will bite, and somehow, someway, Boras comes knocking on old man Lerner's door, and tells him that the pitching void he has can be solved with Arrieta. Boras sings the praises of the marketability of Arrieta, and in late January, Jake Arrieta becomes the number three behind Scherzer and Strasburg, slotting above Gio and Roark.

I wonder what trade candidates there could be, as that road has worked before, but I'm not sure what players could be had. Maybe Samardzija (contract) or Gerrit Cole (cost in arb to Pirates) or possibly Clayton Richard but anyone else is likely worse than what is on the market and can be had without giving up any prospects.

Lynn also has an injury history, including Tommy John.  I think Cobb is the way to go out of that list, just because he's a bit better.  Arrieta will get a heck of a deal - he is much less of an injury risk than Darvish or Tanaka, and he has relatively few miles on his arm for his age because Baltimore couldn't figure out what to do with him.  I expect he'll get at least as much money as Strasburg.