Apathetically awaiting the post season?

[Slateman]

Interesting stuff.  Despite owning the third best record in baseball, and projected to remain there, the Nats have the lowest World Series Champion % of any division leader, and less than a 50% of making it out of the divisional series.  I know its all a guess,but its pretty depressing.

Like I said, we're the Capitals of baseball.

[Slateman]

It’s because the Dodgers and Cubs are in the NL too. Along with good wild card teams. Given the Dodgers dominance I would have expected a higher percentage for them too. I imagine the presence of the Nats depresses that as well.

What

They've played the Dodgers once in the post season and never the Cubs.

They don't have a WS because for five seasons this team has relied on their starting pitching going 7+ innings and their lineup hitting home runs. Guess what goes away on cold, October nights against other good hitting lineups that are totally focused?

[mimontero88]

I'd say I'm apathetic at this exact moment but I'll be much more tuned in as guys start to return from injury to see how they progress as we get closer to October.

[Slateman]

I'd say I'm apathetic at this exact moment but I'll be much more tuned in as guys start to return from injury to see how they progress as we get closer to October.

Same. If this team were still healthy (and I mean like Eaton still healthy too), the regular season would be pretty damn exciting, as I have a feeling we'd be closing in on a pretty special number of wins.

[bluestreak]

\

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/seasonpreview_mlbteampredictions/mlb-team-predictions-2016-season

So random almost half of the experts picked the correct WS champion at the beginning of the year. Yep, random.

You talk about preparation not sufficient? The Warriors literally lucked in to Kevin Durant. But they were prepared. They had cap space. And the NBA is the way it is because one or two players can dominate an entire game. Neither football nor baseball is like that.

Here's the NFL predicitons for the NFC last year: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000693407/article/2016-nfc-playoff-predictions-east-should-be-hotly-contested
One person had the Falcons getting a WC. One.

Hockey is far and away the most luck based sport. The puck literally bounces everywhere. Then football with its one game approach and weirdly shaped ball and odd scoring rules.

Success is not random.

Not completely random. But not completely based on skill and roster management. And the amount of randomness is higher in baseball.

It’s cute that you think that sportwriters and TV blowhards are experts. How cute. If you look at the actual experts, Vegas oddsmakers, it looks like they have gotten two right in the past 10 years. Last years’ cubs and 2013 Red Sox.
But I’m sure you know more than them.
In fact since you know more than everyone, including multiple front offices, why don’t you apply for a GM job somewhere.
Jeez. Can’t even get a guy to admit that luck plays a role in sports.

[bluestreak]

What

They've played the Dodgers once in the post season and never the Cubs.

They don't have a WS because for five seasons this team has relied on their starting pitching going 7+ innings and their lineup hitting home runs. Guess what goes away on cold, October nights against other good hitting lineups that are totally focused?

Do you even know what we are talking about?
Those numbers are based on probabilities and win percentages and run differentials and team WAR and other stats. Not some analysts’ assessment of matchups. It’s simple numbers crunched in a computer.

So I stand by my assessment. The reason the Nats WS probability is lower than you might expect is probably because a statistically historic good team is currently in the NL too.

[PowerBoater69]

They don't make shows like that anymore.

(Image removed from quote.)

Someone on here is slipping.

[bluestreak]

They don't make shows like that anymore.

(Image removed from quote.)

Wait, that was a TV show. I thought it was only a movie...

[spidernat]

Wait, that was a TV show. I thought it was only a movie...

[bluestreak]

(Image removed from quote.)

I know you think I’m stupid, but come on...

[spidernat]

I know you think I’m stupid, but come on...

I don't think you're stupid at all. Besides, this was a case of maybe you just not knowing about an old show.

[bluestreak]

I don't think you're stupid at all. Besides, this was a case of maybe you just not knowing about an old show.

The thing is, the angels of the 70s were so much superior (except Kate Jackson) But I admit that I only got to see the show in reruns.

[Natsinpwc]

The thing is, the angels of the 70s were so much superior (except Kate Jackson) But I admit that I only got to see the show in reruns.

Kate Jackson was the best angel. She was awesome in Dark Shadows also.

[bluestreak]

Kate Jackson was the best angel. She was awesome in Dark Shadows also.

Depends on our definitions of best.  Keep in mind I was like 3 when the show ended. And like 12 when I finally watched it.

[Natsinpwc]

Depends on our definitions of best.  Keep in mind I was like 3 when the show ended. And like 12 when I finally watched it.

Prettiest. The others were all hair.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Kate Jackson was the best angel. She was awesome in Dark Shadows also.

Kate was called the one who could act at the time.  Kind of strange given Fawcett's later career.

[spidernat]

The thing is, the angels of the 70s were so much superior (except Kate Jackson) But I admit that I only got to see the show in reruns.

A lot of people liked Kate Jackson.



I made a reference to an old show once and the person I was talking to said, "how old are you?"

Kate was called the one who could act at the time.

  They were all horrible actors.

[Optics]

The Cubs were a heavy favorite last year that ended up winning it all, but that's pretty rare in baseball. When the Giants won it in 2014, they were a Wild Card. The Royals made it in 2014 as a Wild Card, and nobody saw them going back in 2015. The Mets made it in 2015 after not even making the playoffs in 2014, or for quite a few years.

The team with the best record very rarely wins it all in baseball.

[tomterp]

19.1 percent right now.  https://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx 
Less than 1 in five.

After the play in games there will be 8 teams, 1/5 > 1/8 by a wide margin.  1/8 being the average probability.

[LoveAngelos]

I used to enjoy the regular season but then my seat cost $7  at RFK in an area roughly equivalent to section 220at Nats Park and I could park in lot 6 for $10 and be what is $45 close today. There was Livo tossing his equipment into the stands after he was pulled from the mound and the emergency room at GW Hospital brining in extra staff whenever Cadiac Chad aka The Chief took the mound ...those were

[PowerBoater69]

I don't think you're stupid at all. Besides, this was a case of maybe you just not knowing about an old show.

I'm a little disappointed in you in particular, maybe I just need to take an eraser to that shot.

[Ray D]

After the play in games there will be 8 teams, 1/5 > 1/8 by a wide margin.  1/8 being the average probability.

Well yeah but my point was that the Dodgers are a so-called "historically great team" and their chance are 1 in 5.  Proves you can't buy a championship, which is what some of our posters think is possible.

[Count Walewski]

The Cubs were preseason favorites to win the World Series in 2004 and didn't even make the playoffs. Vegas oddsmakers are wrong all the time.

[Mathguy]

So what's the playoff roster going to look like with some of those on injured list coming back to health ?  Also, in order to participate in the playoffs, does a player have to be on the roster by Sept 1st ?

[varoadking]

So what's the playoff roster going to look like with some of those on injured list coming back to health ?  Also, in order to participate in the playoffs, does a player have to be on the roster by Sept 1st ?

No...we went thru that last year...just in the organization...