Poll

When should Garcia take over as starting SS?

Should have happened already
4 (28.6%)
6/1
3 (21.4%)
7/1
4 (28.6%)
After ASB
0 (0%)
8/1
2 (14.3%)
9/1 call up
1 (7.1%)

Total Members Voted: 14

Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS (Poll Added)  (Read 7587 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5165
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #175: April 29, 2022, 04:36:17 PM »
He owns at career exit velocity below 80 mph against off-speed pitches and around 84 against breaking pitches. He needs to learn how to hit something that isn’t at fastball. And that requires more than a good three week stretch.


Is that just his major league numbers? I don't think stat cast exists in the minors, so none of us can tell without seeing actual footage of Garcia playing in AAA to know what his at bats look like. Do we even know all his hits are coming off of fastballs? Seems like lots of assuming going on in this thread, and I include myself in that.

Offline welch

  • Posts: 14680
  • 2019: Won the fight
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #176: April 29, 2022, 05:38:09 PM »

Is that just his major league numbers? I don't think stat cast exists in the minors, so none of us can tell without seeing actual footage of Garcia playing in AAA to know what his at bats look like. Do we even know all his hits are coming off of fastballs? Seems like lots of assuming going on in this thread, and I include myself in that.

It looks like Garcia cannot hit a major-league breaking ball. That's the old, old story of the hotshot kid at Spring Training: "I'll see you soon, Ma. They're throwing breaking balls now".

OK, to repeat: unless Garcia can field SS, where would he play for the Nats? Hernandez is a competent major league hitter, and a decent fielding 2B. Should the Nats sit Hernandez and let Garcia try 2B again? And, as much as I dislike playing a season to flip players for prospects, why have Hernandez at all, then?

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 10751
  • Sunshine Squad 2022
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #177: May 09, 2022, 04:13:44 PM »
Still crushing the ball. Weeks since an error.

This is nearing service time manipulation territory.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 21553
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #178: May 09, 2022, 04:20:43 PM »
Still crushing the ball. Weeks since an error.

This is nearing service time manipulation territory.
Have to wait for new ownership to make a decision.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 4811
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #179: May 09, 2022, 06:15:15 PM »
It looks like Garcia cannot hit a major-league breaking ball. That's the old, old story of the hotshot kid at Spring Training: "I'll see you soon, Ma. They're throwing breaking balls now".

OK, to repeat: unless Garcia can field SS, where would he play for the Nats? Hernandez is a competent major league hitter, and a decent fielding 2B. Should the Nats sit Hernandez and let Garcia try 2B again? And, as much as I dislike playing a season to flip players for prospects, why have Hernandez at all, then?

A large part of AAA is to sort out guys who can't hit breaking stuff.  There are enough guys there that have MLB caliber offspeed stuff that it's a good place to learn to hit it.  You can't just sit on fastballs and hit well in AAA. 

And he has to play SS.  That's the second reason he is in AAA.  His viability as a major leaguer would be vastly increased if he can play SS capably, even if only for a few years.  He's still very young for AAA (he'll be 22 next week) and the last time he played over 40 games at SS was in 2019.  That's just not enough experience for him to be reasonably expected to do it every day in MLB.

Still crushing the ball. Weeks since an error.

This is nearing service time manipulation territory.

Lack of errors doesn't tell the whole story.  Is he getting to balls?  Are they completing double plays when he's in them, or settling for forces?  Is he getting rid of the ball fast and strong enough to get outs on tight plays or is he giving up infield hits?  None of those show up in the error column but all of them determine whether he can play SS at the top level.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 59592
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #180: May 09, 2022, 09:31:40 PM »
Still crushing the ball. Weeks since an error.

This is nearing service time manipulation territory.
There is still no benefit to playing him at the major league level

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 21553
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #181: May 09, 2022, 09:55:51 PM »
There is still no benefit to playing him at the major league level
So exactly how much time does he need in Rochester?  If he can hit in Triple A but not yet in the big leagues he needs to learn in MLB.  I don't see much benefit to honing his fielding in the minors.  Ground balls are ground balls.  I think he will be up by June.  Unless Escobar finds whatever he was on last year. 

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 59592
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #182: May 09, 2022, 10:08:13 PM »
So exactly how much time does he need in Rochester?  If he can hit in Triple A but not yet in the big leagues he needs to learn in MLB.  I don't see much benefit to honing his fielding in the minors.  Ground balls are ground balls.  I think he will be up by June.  Unless Escobar finds whatever he was on last year. 
Frankly, he can stay down there until after the deadline, when we've traded Hernandez, Franco, Bell, and (hopefully) Escobar.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 21553
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #183: May 10, 2022, 07:22:11 AM »
Frankly, he can stay down there until after the deadline, when we've traded Hernandez, Franco, Bell, and (hopefully) Escobar.
So August 1 he will magically be ready. Ok.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 4811
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #184: May 10, 2022, 09:05:31 AM »
So exactly how much time does he need in Rochester?  If he can hit in Triple A but not yet in the big leagues he needs to learn in MLB.  I don't see much benefit to honing his fielding in the minors.  Ground balls are ground balls.  I think he will be up by June.  Unless Escobar finds whatever he was on last year.

Psychologically, though, booted ground balls hit by the Syracuse Mets aren't the same as booted ground balls hit by the OG Mets.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 21553
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #185: May 10, 2022, 09:11:54 AM »
Psychologically, though, booted ground balls hit by the Syracuse Mets aren't the same as booted ground balls hit by the OG Mets.
Maybe. I would rather see him called up in June and get a god four months to look at him at SS.  See if he has a future.  Better than watching Escobar.

Edit. I will add that the 2022 Nats are about as low a pressure MLB experience as one can have. Low team expectations. Attendance down. Hardly anyone watching on TV.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 59592
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #186: May 10, 2022, 09:38:25 AM »
So August 1 he will magically be ready. Ok.
On August 1st, it will be in the team's best interests to have Luis Garcia on the MLB roster.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 21553
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #187: May 10, 2022, 09:59:12 AM »
On August 1st, it will be in the team's best interests to have Luis Garcia on the MLB roster.
With two months of he does ok you will say that was not enough time to show he earned the job for 2023. If he does poorly you will say he needs more Triple A time. Meanwhile we have a starting CF with an OPS around .600 who apparently does not need more time in Triple A.

You also said the bubble season did not count because only 60 games. So I will not count his august and September.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 4811
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #188: May 10, 2022, 10:00:04 AM »
Maybe. I would rather see him called up in June and get a god four months to look at him at SS.  See if he has a future.  Better than watching Escobar.

Edit. I will add that the 2022 Nats are about as low a pressure MLB experience as one can have. Low team expectations. Attendance down. Hardly anyone watching on TV.

This is true, but "see if he has a future" is a pretty rapid judgment for a guy who's not even 22.  I don't think we'd be having this discussion if the team had anyone else who looked like even a passable stopgap at SS in MLB.  Things are so bad that DSG got some run there!

People seem to be forgetting that Garcia also OPSed nearly 1.000 in AAA last year but was terrible defensively at SS.  Frankly, last year's MLB offensive showing from him is viable at SS, as long as the defense is there.  I'm sure he'll be up later in the year, but if it were my call I'd wait at least another month or so for him to build confidence on defense.  Look at what happened with Kieboom for the bad outcome here. 

Low pressure MLB is still infinitely more pressure than AAA, and it's really important to the team that this dude stick long-term.  The next two months don't matter at all.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 21553
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #189: May 10, 2022, 10:06:04 AM »
This is true, but "see if he has a future" is a pretty rapid judgment for a guy who's not even 22.  I don't think we'd be having this discussion if the team had anyone else who looked like even a passable stopgap at SS in MLB.  Things are so bad that DSG got some run there!

People seem to be forgetting that Garcia also OPSed nearly 1.000 in AAA last year but was terrible defensively at SS.  Frankly, last year's MLB offensive showing from him is viable at SS, as long as the defense is there.  I'm sure he'll be up later in the year, but if it were my call I'd wait at least another month or so for him to build confidence on defense.  Look at what happened with Kieboom for the bad outcome here. 

Low pressure MLB is still infinitely more pressure than AAA, and it's really important to the team that this dude stick long-term.  The next two months don't matter at all.

June 1 seems fine. Even mid June. I don’t think a comparison with Kieboom is fair. The latter seems to be a special case of a major prospect flop. Dominic Brown-like.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 59592
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #190: May 10, 2022, 10:07:08 AM »
With two months of he does ok you will say that was not enough time to show he earned the job for 2023. If he does poorly you will say he needs more Triple A time. Meanwhile we have a starting CF with an OPS around .600 who apparently does not need more time in Triple A.

You also said the bubble season did not count because only 60 games. So I will not count his august and September.
Okay. Weird, but okay.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 34111
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #191: May 10, 2022, 10:41:48 AM »
Poll added. 

For me, 7/1 makes sense.  Give him a 3 month run at SS in AAA then bring him up for half a season in DC. I just don't see playing < 30 games in Rochester as enough time to get the kinks out for a guy who has had no significant time at SS since 2019.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 4811
Re: Follow the Prospects: Luis Garcia, SS
« Reply #192: May 10, 2022, 11:28:27 AM »
June 1 seems fine. Even mid June. I don’t think a comparison with Kieboom is fair. The latter seems to be a special case of a major prospect flop. Dominic Brown-like.

Kieboom, like Garcia, had good numbers offensively in AAA but wasn't a polished product at SS.  They brought him up at SS at 21, before his defense was ready.  He flopped there, struggled with the bat, and then lost confidence to the point that he didn't hit a ton when sent back to AAA.  Make sure guys are ready on offense and defense before you bring them up.  Guys really do bring problems from the field into the batter's box.

And it's not just Kieboom.  Jose Barrero is getting down that road with Cincinnati.  Cleveland brought Francisco Mejia up too soon as a catcher despite him being ready only on offense and it totally freaked him for like 4 years (with some assistance from the Prellers doing the same thing).  He's now finally putting it together 3 teams later.  I'm sure I could come up with a few more from recent years. 

Offline imref

  • Moderator
  • ***
  • Posts: 37054
  • Re-contending in 2022
2-5, 3B, HR last night. Now batting .355 with an OPS of 1.080

This is getting ridiculous.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 34111
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
2-5, 3B, HR last night. Now batting .355 with an OPS of 1.080

This is getting ridiculous.
there's no question at this point that the MLB product would be improved by having him at SS.  It's not like they are getting even neutral D out of Alcides and DSG (or Luscious), and the O is pathetic.  Bad defense with a bat is better than bad defense without a bat.  The question is not what would make the Nats more likely to win the next game in May '22.  It's entirely what is the optimum development path for Garcia at this point.

H

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 34111
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
He has 1 year, 37 days MLB service time.  IF there's a manipulate the service time angle to this, then you'd see him up already this week.  172 days is needed for a year of service time.  172-37 is 135.  Last day of the season is 10/5.  Figure:

Oct - 5
Sep - 30
Aug -31
July - 31
June - 30
------------
127 days from end of may.

Count back 8 days to get to 135. 

Garcia will not be up before 5/23. 

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 59592
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
there's no question at this point that the MLB product would be improved by having him at SS.  It's not like they are getting even neutral D out of Alcides and DSG (or Luscious), and the O is pathetic.  Bad defense with a bat is better than bad defense without a bat.  The question is not what would make the Nats more likely to win the next game in May '22.  It's entirely what is the optimum development path for Garcia at this point. 
Its not even that. Its what gives the Nationals the best chance at competing in 2023 and 2024. And that means playing Escobar to see if he can regain last year and be flipped at the deadline. Heck, I'd even see if C. Hernandez can play a passable SS, in order to up his trade value.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 21553
Its not even that. Its what gives the Nationals the best chance at competing in 2023 and 2024. And that means playing Escobar to see if he can regain last year and be flipped at the deadline. Heck, I'd even see if C. Hernandez can play a passable SS, in order to up his trade value.
You crack me up. Escobar was out of the league for years and you want to see if his late 2021 stats were not a mirage. On any other player you would have concluded that those were fools gold. Hernandez has never been a good SS even when younger. So why would anyone seem to think he can play it now?  The Nats obviously do not which is why they are playing DSG there. Escobar will be DFAed by the end of the month. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 34111
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
on our poll, it looks like we are at the "July 1 gives you the finger" stage. 

I do think it's possible that they are merely manipulating service time at this point, and it'll end up 6/1 or earlier.  I'm still in the 7/1 camp thinking it is more due to wanting him to get his defensive work in outside of DC.

Offline imref

  • Moderator
  • ***
  • Posts: 37054
  • Re-contending in 2022
2-5 yesterday leading Rochester to a 9th inning come-from-behind victory (along with Stevenson)

.357   .415   1.067