Not sure why you think Joe Panik is an insult, since he's put up 2 WAR/600 PA through 3.5 seasons. A league average player is a huge win for any prospect.
If you want to think he's more like Jean Segura, that's fine. I stand by my statement that when you're that young at that level, you really need bigger tools and a bigger projection to be a top-100 prospect, not just 55 SS defense and limited pop.
Could a guy being used as a UT in the minors turn into a ML SS? Could a guy who's shown 0 power develop average power? Could a guy who shows no basestealing ability turn into a super valuable runner?
Sure?
2080 generally is high on the Nats prospects (I think the guy also does writeups for Federalbaseball). He has Robles #2 midseason and Kieboom #20. He has Luis Garcia #121. The kid has obviously had a great year for his prospect status and is a real good prospect. I just personally wouldn't put an 18-year old (by definition high-risk) in my top 100 without a higher ceiling.
By your standard, Ozzie Albies shouldn't have been a top 100 guy.
At 18, he had a 0 homer season, with a 20 power grade. Yet, was a top 20 prospect.
Im not trying to make adirect comparison to Albies. But hes a smallish middle infielder who had power questions. As he matured, power came. I'm not predicting Albies type of growth or anything, just pointing it out. Garcia had 21 extra base hits in half a season of full season ball at 17/18. Many top.draftees are pushing 19 come draft day. Garcia wont turn 19 until 3 weeks before the next draft.
As for Panik, if he was an SS with better speed, that's an upgrade on the Giants version of Panik, right?
I also think you're looking at his defensive usage at Hagerstown and coming to the conclusion that hes a utility guy because he was moved around. I think the versatility was a plus. He was with a 2B only in Freeman. And fellow bonus baby Antuna at short. Him moving around was merely an effort to get everyone on the field together. Hes been a SS exclusively on Potomac and all reports say he has the tools to stick at SS.
As far as a Difo comparison, sure that could be a possible outcome. But, Garcia was much more highly regarded at signing. And, Difo didnt really come on the prospect map until he was 22 at Hagerstown. Garcia just had success at 17/18.
In general, I understand your point about how high an 18 year old should be ranked. Theres a ton of projection left. I just think you limit how high you rank them. I'm not saying Garcia should be an elite prospect, or that hell ever be. But hes been very impressive for his age. All rankings are about projection. I see no reason an 18 year old that shows multiple impressive.tools in full season ball at a premium position shouldn't be considered a top 100 prospect.
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