Unpopular Nationals Opinions

[Smithian]

Rizzo is a very mediocre GM who got very luck with a string of can't miss draft picks. He generally is not good at scouting amateur talent and that is why the Nats can't field a competitive team now that those draft picks have moved on or passed their peak.

I agree Rizzo owns a lot of the blame for the sorry shape the Farm System fell into past few years, but I don't really agree with this statement. This team was competitive for the better part of a decade. And Rizzo crushed trades throughout. Can't call a guy mediocre who took the team from 100 losses to a championship.

I do think this year and how he handles the deadline will decide if he is the guy for the rebuild or if it is time for a fresh set of eyes. I am high on the work he did last deadline, but it'll take a couple years of shrewd moves to clear out the rot that built up.

[HalfSmokes]

I agree Rizzo owns a lot of the blame for the sorry shape the Farm System fell into past few years, but I don't really agree with this statement. This team was competitive for the better part of a decade. And Rizzo crushed trades throughout. Can't call a guy mediocre who took the team from 100 losses to a championship.

I do think this year and how he handles the deadline will decide if he is the guy for the rebuild or if it is time for a fresh set of eyes. I am high on the work he did last deadline, but it'll take a couple years of shrewd moves to clear out the rot that built up.

The rise coincided with a bunch of great draft picks either hitting or being flipped for major league talent and the Lerners signing off on paying Scherzer a ton of money. That second tier of draft picks has never worked out for this team and now that they haven't had top picks for the farm is totally floundering.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I agree Rizzo owns a lot of the blame for the sorry shape the Farm System fell into past few years, but I don't really agree with this statement. This team was competitive for the better part of a decade. And Rizzo crushed trades throughout. Can't call a guy mediocre who took the team from 100 losses to a championship.

I do think this year and how he handles the deadline will decide if he is the guy for the rebuild or if it is time for a fresh set of eyes. I am high on the work he did last deadline, but it'll take a couple years of shrewd moves to clear out the rot that built up.

His master stroke was Scherzer, not trades.  Yes, they won in 2019, but Rizzo traded away at least 5 guys who are in MLB starting rotations and still in the initial years of team control (Giolito, Dunning, Luzardo, Nick Pivetta, and Taylor Hearn) and one more who swings between starting and the bullpen (Reynaldo Lopez).  Several of those trades had no bearing on winning in 2019, either.

[imref]

His master stroke was Scherzer, not trades.  Yes, they won in 2019, but Rizzo traded away at least 5 guys who are in MLB starting rotations and still in the initial years of team control (Giolito, Dunning, Luzardo, Nick Pivetta, and Taylor Hearn) and one more who swings between starting and the bullpen (Reynaldo Lopez).  Several of those trades had no bearing on winning in 2019, either.

Career ERAs:
Hearn: 4.80 (3 seasons) 4.66/1.323 in his only season as a starter
Pivetta: 5.17 (6 seasons, including this one)
Luzardo: 5.36 (3 seasons), including his last two as a starter: 4.42 and 6.61. He's a career. -0.1 WAR player

The Giolito trade has been debated to death, can we not go through it again?

[Kevrock]

He has had great trades. I put him as a top 10 GM but far from the top 5.

[blue911]

Rizzo became team president in 2013. This could be the case of one guy trying to do too much.Regardless  it isn’t working

[Elvir Ovcina]

Career ERAs:
Hearn: 4.80 (3 seasons) 4.66/1.323 in his only season as a starter
Pivetta: 5.17 (6 seasons, including this one)
Luzardo: 5.36 (3 seasons), including his last two as a starter: 4.42 and 6.61. He's a career. -0.1 WAR player

The Giolito trade has been debated to death, can we not go through it again?

Sure, but, uh, it did happen and it has pretty noticeable impacts now.  They won the WS.  It was also a lot to give up.  The results were pretty predictable on both sides.

And while Pivetta is an ass-end innings eater, he's still better than Anibal Sanchez, and he fetched...Papelbon.  Plus Boston seems to have potentially fixed him. Based on last year's work, he probably would have started on Opening Day for this year's Nationals.

Luzardo is 24.  Still plenty of time for him.  He was fine in 2020 and crap last year, which is one more decent MLB season in that time than Corbin (or anyone else in the current rotation).  He'd also be starting on this team. 

Hearn should be in the bullpen but would be one of the Nats' better relievers. 

[imref]

Pivetta made one start so far in 2022 and allowed 4ER in 5.2 IP, he's not fixed.

Trading Hearn, Pivetta, and Luzardo doesn't negatively impact this year's team, they are all at or below replacement level.

[PowerBoater69]

I guess I am not seeing the point of signing a couple of veterans to win 75-80 games instead of 65-70 games? 

Also you guys keep forgetting they are paying $28.5 million in deferred salaries this year. Whatever way you look at it’s cash out the door this year.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/yearly/payroll/
 

80 wins could get them a wild card spot, the extra cost in salary would be easily worth it if Strasburg got them into the NLDS. Worst case would have been another file sale that returned young talent. Beats tanking.

But with the breaking news of the sale it is likely that they wanted to keep operating costs down. Everything has been a mess this year, more than usual. Virtually no marketing.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Pivetta made one start so far in 2022 and allowed 4ER in 5.2 IP, he's not fixed.

Trading Hearn, Pivetta, and Luzardo doesn't negatively impact this year's team, they are all at or below replacement level.

Small sample size much?  It was one start.  He had an ERA+ over 100 last year, meaning he was better than league average.  That's not even close to replacement level.  It is in fact far better than any starting pitcher the Nationals have on their current roster.

How much do you want to bet that at least two of the Nationals' current rotation will end up with a higher ERA this year than Pivetta?  Or if you like small sample sizes of one start, should we just go with the fact that his current 6.35 is in fact better than 2 of the 4 guys who have started for the Nats so far, all through one start, and that he'd lead the team in innings pitched?

Also, "replacement level" is a league-wide metric based on an average team.  The Nationals' rotation is far, far worse than average.  Put it this way: how many of the Nationals' current starters do you expect to be above replacement level this year?  I'd give you an over-under of 2.  Corbin, Fedde, and Gray were all negative last year, and Adon and Sanchez totaled 1 start in the majors, which is itself rather suggestive of their level.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Pivetta made one start so far in 2022 and allowed 4ER in 5.2 IP, he's not fixed.

he's was the #2 starter on a team that went to the ALCS last year.

[Slateman]

Eh, he lost that trade, but Rizzo has won the majority of his trades.

Where Rizzo struggles has been player development

[imref]

he's was the #2 starter on a team that went to the ALCS last year.

that doesn't say much about the Red Sox rotation. Pivetta was 4.53 / 1.303 with the Red Sox last year.  1-4, 4.56 ERA over the final 2 months of the season.

I'm not sure the point that's being made here.

[Elvir Ovcina]

that doesn't say much about the Red Sox rotation. Pivetta was 4.53 / 1.303 with the Red Sox last year.  1-4, 4.56 ERA over the final 2 months of the season.

I'm not sure the point that's being made here.

He would be the #1 starter on the current Nationals. 

Point is that the roster is largely bereft of pitching talent.  There are a few reasons for that.  One is that Rizzo traded away a lot of pitching prospects.  One is that Strasburg and Corbin turned into pumpkins.  One is that the team has been terrible at developing the pitching talent it keeps.  For example, Fedde is the best result of any pitcher the Nats have drafted/signed and kept since Strasburg in 2009.   That's one replacement-level starting pitcher in more than a decade.  But pitching prospects are always uncertain, and trading a lot of your best ones won't help your lottery odds.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He has had great trades. I put him as a top 10 GM but far from the top 5.

The trades that quickly pop to mind are:

Capps for Ramos
Guzman for (was it both Treinen and Roark?)
Milone, Norris, Peacock (and AJ Cole?) for Gio
Souza for Turner and Ross
Meyer for Span
Krol, Lombardozzi, and Ray for Fister

We can call those all great. We can't really complain about what Ray became or that Treinen's best work was elsewhere. Those deals all were before the 2015 season.

There were the contenders need relief help trades:
Pivetta for Papelbon
Rivero for Melancon
Treinen and Luzardo for Doolittle and Madsen

Those were 2015-2017.

Chronoligically, next there was the "oops" and the botched breakup of the 2018 team:
Giolito, Lopez, Dunning for Eaton. 
Nothing for dealing Gio, Murphy, Kintzler, and other pieces.

Then there was last year's breakup, which I think went well.

All told, I'd say he hasn't had a big hit since 2014-15 and the Souza deal. He dealt a lot of pitching since then, which eventually became needed because the studs he dealt weren't there to take on roles here.  What killed them is they stopped backfilling the pitching dealt away. They tried with high draft choices, but they did not develop in time here to be useful. 

[Elvir Ovcina]

The trades that quickly pop to mind are:

Capps for Ramos
Guzman for (was it both Treinen and Roark?)
Milone, Norris, Peacock (and AJ Cole?) for Gio
Souza for Turner and Ross
Meyer for Span
Krol, Lombardozzi, and Ray for Fister

We can call those all great. We can't really complain about what Ray became or that Treinen's best work was elsewhere. Those deals all were before the 2015 season.

There were the contenders need relief help trades:
Pivetta for Papelbon
Rivero for Melancon
Treinen and Luzardo for Doolittle and Madsen

Those were 2015-2017.

Chronoligically, nNext there was the "oops" and some the botched breakup of the 2018 team
Giolito, Lopez, Dunning for Eaton. 
Nothing for dealing Gio, Murphy, Kintzler, and other pieces.

Then there was last year's breakup, which I think went well.

All told, I'd say he hasn't had a big hit since 2014-15 and the Souza deal. He dealt a lot of pitching since then, which eventually became needed because the studs he dealt weren't there to take on roles here.  What killed them is they stopped backfilling the pitching dealt away. They tried with high draft choices, but they did not develop in time here to be useful.

That's a pretty decent analysis.

But man, that Souza-Turner heist was a hell of a deal. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

By the way, I don't complain too much about the Pivetta for Papelbon deal. I happen to think Pivetta is a heck of a lot better than a few of you are saying, but it's 7 years and 2 teams down the road.  TBH, the Ray for Fister deal might be the one I'd question.  Fister helped in 2014, but that staff already was deep, IIRC - JZ, Stras, Gio, Roark. Ray was ready to be a back of the rotation guy by that point, I think, and had decent years with AZ even before last year's move to Toronto.

[Elvir Ovcina]

By the way, I don't complain too much about the Pivetta for Papelbon deal. I happen to think Pivetta is a heck of a lot better than a few of you are saying, but it's 7 years and 2 teams down the road.  TBH, the Ray for Fister deal might be the one I'd question.  Fister helped in 2014, but that staff already was deep, IIRC - JZ, Stras, Gio, Roark. Ray was ready to be a back of the rotation guy by that point, I think, and had decent years with AZ even before last year's move to Toronto.

I don't mind the Ray/Fister trade.  That was a decent win-now trade for 2014.  Ray wasn't quite ready for 2014 Fister was legitimately good (2.41) in '14 and okay in '15.  Ray passed him in that second year but didn't really establish himself as anything special for another year or two.  If they'd won in 2014, people would be hailing that as a genius move, similar to how like the 2019 WS transforms views of the Eaton thing.

[Kevrock]

By the way, I don't complain too much about the Pivetta for Papelbon deal. I happen to think Pivetta is a heck of a lot better than a few of you are saying, but it's 7 years and 2 teams down the road.  TBH, the Ray for Fister deal might be the one I'd question.  Fister helped in 2014, but that staff already was deep, IIRC - JZ, Stras, Gio, Roark. Ray was ready to be a back of the rotation guy by that point, I think, and had decent years with AZ even before last year's move to Toronto.

Ray was awful in 2014 Detroit before landing in Arizona, though.

I'm with you that this one was super lopsided in hindsight. It's funny because IIRC Dombrowski was slammed for this one at the time.

[Smithian]

We have a great Rizzo thread somewhere

[JCA-CrystalCity]

We have a great Rizzo thread somewhere

I really have to break this up.  Also there's some nice stuff about Robles I think in the Saturday GDT that ought to be copied into a Robles thread. 

[imref]

here's an unpopular opinion - the lineup is better this year than last.

Hernandez > Robles at leadoff and Garcia at 2B
Franco > Kieboom
Bell is off to a better start
Cruz so far is fine (average is low, but he's making contact)
Bench is much better with Gordon-Strange
OF is much more flexible with Yadiel, Thomas. Robles playing matchups

I really wish we added a decent starting pitcher though.

[Smithian]

here's an unpopular opinion - the lineup is better this year than last.

Hernandez > Robles at leadoff and Garcia at 2B
Franco > Kieboom
Bell is off to a better start
Cruz so far is fine (average is low, but he's making contact)
Bench is much better with Gordon-Strange
OF is much more flexible with Yadiel, Thomas. Robles playing matchups

I really wish we added a decent starting pitcher though.

I agree with this. I think Franco will fall off, but not like we had good production at 3B last season. Adrianza is insurance.

Have a couple guys down in minors I am looking forward to seeing as bottom of the order bats or solid subs.

If the pitching could do anything we could have a fun few weeks to start this out.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I agree with this. I think Franco will fall off, but not like we had good production at 3B last season. Adrianza is insurance.

Have a couple guys down in minors I am looking forward to seeing as bottom of the order bats or solid subs.

If the pitching could do anything we could have a fun few weeks to start this out.

Better than the end of last year, maybe.  But that's sorta a no-brainer as that lineup was god-awful.  This lineup isn't better than one with Schwarber, Turner, Gomes, and Harrison in a few of those spots.

[imref]

Better than the end of last year, maybe.  But that's sorta a no-brainer as that lineup was god-awful.  This lineup isn't better than one with Schwarber, Turner, Gomes, and Harrison in a few of those spots.

I'm thinking more of the end of last year to now. I think we've improved a bit. And Ruiz > Gomes