Trade Thread

[Smithian]

Agree - but if our pitching is so loaded, why is anyone advocating the Nats get a reliever from the Yankees ?

I'm not. The Nats bullpen has the National League's top ERA. Papelbon has yet to allow a run since coming off the DL. Kelley is a stud for the setup role. Treinen, Petit, and Perez are useful veterans. Solis looked like a stud before getting hurt. Rivero had a cold streak, but since the disaster in San Diego he has gone 15.1 innings scoreless with quadruple the K's to BB's. The minors have reinforcements in the form of Bryan Harper and Koda Glover. I'm ready to go into October with the Nats bullpen as it stands. I definitely hope Rizzo does due diligence since Perez and Belisle are arms you can upgrade, but I'd be very skeptical of any high priced trade for Miller, Chapman, or any other closer.

And the reason everyone speculates is it's more fun and fills more column space/posts to ask "Should they go big for this piece?" than it is to say "Nats are pretty good, may do due diligence and stand pat" which is basically what Rizzo advertised other day.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Acquiring someone like Miller does a number things. One, it gives the Nat probably the best reliever in baseball. (At worst, top 3) Two, it prevents the Cubs/Pirates/Giants from adding him, obviously. Three, it solidifies the late-game bullpen, and while our ERA is fine right now, I'd feel better with Miller or Chapman in the 8th/9th than what we have now. It just makes us a lot better, and if there's one thing we should have learned from 2012 and 2014, it's that thinking things are "fine" because our regular season performance is adequate is not good enough. You can never have enough good players.

I have a hard time thinking the Yankees would move Miller.  Two more years of control at a low price is just a huge asset for them.  Combining him with Betances gives you the L/R looks.  They are in a division lacking a dominant team, and they are .500 as it is. they can contend soon with him. He is more valuable to them than he is in the open market.  A team looking for a short term need shouldn't pay the premium the contract deserves when there are other lefty options.  Chapman is the guy who must be moved.

[Monarch]

I'm not. The Nats bullpen has the National League's top ERA. Papelbon has yet to allow a run since coming off the DL. Kelley is a stud for the setup role. Treinen, Petit, and Perez are useful veterans. Solis looked like a stud before getting hurt. Rivero had a cold streak, but since the disaster in San Diego he has gone 15.1 innings scoreless with quadruple the K's to BB's. The minors have reinforcements in the form of Bryan Harper and Koda Glover. I'm ready to go into October with the Nats bullpen as it stands. I definitely hope Rizzo does due diligence since Perez and Belisle are arms you can upgrade, but I'd be very skeptical of any high priced trade for Miller, Chapman, or any other closer.

And the reason everyone speculates is it's more fun and fills more column space/posts to ask "Should they go big for this piece?" than it is to say "Nats are pretty good, may do due diligence and stand pat" which is basically what Rizzo advertised other day.

I see what you're saying, but as someone else pointed out - adding someone like Miller improves the team. You can't say that about anyone in the minor leagues without banking on luck and hope.

[whytev]

I have a hard time thinking the Yankees would move Miller.  Two more years of control at a low price is just a huge asset for them.  Combining him with Betances gives you the L/R looks.  They are in a division lacking a dominant team, and they are .500 as it is. they can contend soon with him. He is more valuable to them than he is in the open market.  A team looking for a short term need shouldn't pay the premium the contract deserves when there are other lefty options.  Chapman is the guy who must be moved.

This, 100%. They have two closers. Next year they won't have Chapman. They aren't going to trade Miller and have to find a new closer in the offseason. They are the Yankees, not the Braves. This is a punt, not a rebuild.

[Slateman]

Speak for yourself. Not interested in either of Miller or Chapman if the price is too high, and right now, the price is too damn high for a RP.

It's not that high. Not when you're talking about an essential component to post-season success. Your starters aren't going 8 innings in the playoffs. Just not happening.

The Nats have this year and maybe next year before the division is a total crap shoot. Make a push now.

[Mattionals]

This, 100%. They have two closers. Next year they won't have Chapman. They aren't going to trade Miller and have to find a new closer in the offseason. They are the Yankees, not the Braves. This is a punt, not a rebuild.

The only way I see them moving Miller is if the offer is immense. Also, if Cashman probably had his way, he would be dealing off every trade worthy vet and dumping ARod. I think he wants to see a 2017 team with Bird, Didi, Judge, Mason Williams, and Gary Sanchez everyday with Tanaka, Severino, and Pineda taking steps forward. Weirdly enough on Pineda, the defense behind him when he is away from home must be terrible, even with hard hit balls getting upticked this season.

[Mathguy]

But acquiring a very good player isn't "free" - it has to mean giving up something.  So for anyone who things we need to acquire another very good reliever, what do we have to give up ?  That's the reason I don't think we are signing/trading for such a reliever.

[quote a

Acquiring someone like Miller does a number things. One, it gives the Nat probably the best reliever in baseball. (At worst, top 3) Two, it prevents the Cubs/Pirates/Giants from adding him, obviously. Three, it solidifies the late-game bullpen, and while our ERA is fine right now, I'd feel better with Miller or Chapman in the 8th/9th than what we have now. It just makes us a lot better, and if there's one thing we should have learned from 2012 and 2014, it's that thinking things are "fine" because our regular season performance is adequate is not good enough. You can never have enough good players.

uthor=Slateman link=topic=34022.msg1743133#msg1743133 date=1469115594]
It's not that high. Not when you're talking about an essential component to post-season success. Your starters aren't going 8 innings in the playoffs. Just not happening.

The Nats have this year and maybe next year before the division is a total crap shoot. Make a push now.
[/quote]

[Mattionals]

But acquiring a very good player isn't "free" - it has to mean giving up something.  So for anyone who things we need to acquire another very good reliever, what do we have to give up ?  That's the reason I don't think we are signing/trading for such a reliever.
uthor=Slateman link=topic=34022.msg1743133#msg1743133 date=1469115594]
It's not that high. Not when you're talking about an essential component to post-season success. Your starters aren't going 8 innings in the playoffs. Just not happening.

The Nats have this year and maybe next year before the division is a total crap shoot. Make a push now.

Let's put it this way, if Chapman (Nats aren't going to get Miller IMO, price is too high) guarantees that lock down inning in the playoffs, you know, the ones this franchise has been unable to lock down, do you make the trade?

My friend put it to me like this. "Throw away logic and I'm going to predict the future. The Nats win the World Series with Chapman. He is the reason they win. Do you give up Giolito if I tell you that they win the World Series and the only way to do it is giving up Giolito for Chapman?"

I said yes, even before his debut. Now realistically, that won't happen as Giolito for Chapman is too high a price and the SABR math to say what 2 months of Chapman vs. 6 years of Giolito will easily favor for the Yankees. Given what the Nats have, I want to see Chapman out there and even if he blows a critical game in the playoffs, for once we can all say at least the Nats tried and didn't settle for the lesser name.

[UMDNats]

I have a hard time thinking the Yankees would move Miller.  Two more years of control at a low price is just a huge asset for them.  Combining him with Betances gives you the L/R looks.  They are in a division lacking a dominant team, and they are .500 as it is. they can contend soon with him. He is more valuable to them than he is in the open market.  A team looking for a short term need shouldn't pay the premium the contract deserves when there are other lefty options.  Chapman is the guy who must be moved.

I tend to agree.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Flipping through MLBTR, there's discussion of whether David Robertson would be available, and also Adam Eaton.  Robertson has ~ $30MM left through 2018, while Eaton can play CF.  I could be comfortable using Robertson as the high leverage stopper while pulling Kelley and Papelbon back to lower leverage roles.  He may be easier to get than Miller.  Eaton would be a long term solution to CF.  I'm not sure of the ChiSox needs, but I assume young major league ready players like Michael Taylor would be part of the package but not necessarily the feature.

[Slateman]

I have a hard time thinking the Yankees would move Miller.  Two more years of control at a low price is just a huge asset for them.  Combining him with Betances gives you the L/R looks.  They are in a division lacking a dominant team, and they are .500 as it is. they can contend soon with him. He is more valuable to them than he is in the open market.  A team looking for a short term need shouldn't pay the premium the contract deserves when there are other lefty options.  Chapman is the guy who must be moved.

Except they need starting pitching. Who is going to give up a decent, close to ready SP prospect for a 2/3 month rental?

[dshawg77]

I think we're getting either Chapman or Miller as well as Blackmon.

w

I hope you are right! Trade Gio to O's while you are at and put Gioloto in:)

[dshawg77]

Acquiring someone like Miller does a number things. One, it gives the Nat probably the best reliever in baseball. (At worst, top 3) Two, it prevents the Cubs/Pirates/Giants from adding him, obviously. Three, it solidifies the late-game bullpen, and while our ERA is fine right now, I'd feel better with Miller or Chapman in the 8th/9th than what we have now. It just makes us a lot better, and if there's one thing we should have learned from 2012 and 2014, it's that thinking things are "fine" because our regular season performance is adequate is not good enough. You can never have enough good players.

Miller is the guy we need. Been saying that for a month. Do it Rizzo!!

[Mattionals]

Except they need starting pitching. Who is going to give up a decent, close to ready SP prospect for a 2/3 month rental?

Define close to ready starting pitching? The Yankees aren't going to be much better next year at this rate. They would need the "kids" to produce like the Cubs kids did last season. The thing is, all of the Cubs prospects were head over heels ready for the MLB, yet all of the Yankees prospects have differing levels of warts and aren't as highly regarded as the Cubs kids were. The Yankees also would have to move on from ARod, Tex, Ellsbury and/or Gardner. They would also need a permanent plan at 3B. The Yankees aren't "close" but are stuck in the middle. Just enough talent to keep them around .500, but lacking enough talent to get them closer to leading the division.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Except they need starting pitching. Who is going to give up a decent, close to ready SP prospect for a 2/3 month rental?

Gonna guess they aren't looking for a rotation addition for this year, so AA or A+ level would be fine. 

[_sturt_]

This is FO for a franchise that will probably be willing to pay a high price if they perceive it is the difference between our first WS appearance or not, imo.

[aspenbubba]

Iout there and even if he blows a critical game in the playoffs, for once we can all say at least the Nats tried and didn't settle for the lesser name.

Didn't we acquire Soriano and Pap for that very reason?

[BrandonK]

Need a CF bat

[Mattionals]

Didn't we acquire Soriano and Pap for that very reason?

They settled for Pap because they didn't have the prospects the Reds wanted for Chapman.

Soriano was an interesting signing. It actually looked good from the onset as his two years with the Yankees were ok. His first year was rough, but the peripherals were still very good. His contract year he pitched great and increased his K rate while decreasing his walk rate. His first season as a Nat, his K rate plummeted but he walked less guys. He started walking more and giving up more homers in the second half of his first year. His second year, his K rate jumped back into the 8.5 per 9 zone and he normalized his walk rate to something between the first half of 2013 and the second half. The biggest problem was that his first half 2014 stats were unsustainable, and his second half stats made him come crashing back to earth when his hard hit percentage rose 13 points.

Basically, Soriano got old fast and ran out of gas in the second halves of both his years here. Still, it was lauded as a good move prior to 2013.

[Slateman]

Define close to ready starting pitching? The Yankees aren't going to be much better next year at this rate. They would need the "kids" to produce like the Cubs kids did last season. The thing is, all of the Cubs prospects were head over heels ready for the MLB, yet all of the Yankees prospects have differing levels of warts and aren't as highly regarded as the Cubs kids were. The Yankees also would have to move on from ARod, Tex, Ellsbury and/or Gardner. They would also need a permanent plan at 3B. The Yankees aren't "close" but are stuck in the middle. Just enough talent to keep them around .500, but lacking enough talent to get them closer to leading the division.

They're .500 now. They'll be losing almost 40 million. They can buy enough talent to propel them forward in that division, at least position player wise. So if they can deal Chapman (or Miller) for a middle of the rotation starter, they'll be in really good shape going in to next season.

[Slateman]

https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/756187913134546944

Archer may end up going to the Dodgers?

[BrandonK]

https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/756187913134546944

Archer may end up going to the Dodgers?

They have to make a move. Archer would be a good get, especially if they don't have to move De Leon

[Mathguy]

An interesting article on the trade deadline

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2016/07/21/nationals-at-the-trade-deadline-what-we-know-and-what-they-need/

[Slateman]

They have to make a move. Archer would be a good get, especially if they don't have to move De Leon

I love how everyone thinks the Dodgers are going to get Archer for Puig and nothing.

[Smithian]

I am cheering hard against the White Sox right now. I want to raid Adam Eaton.