Trade Thread

[whytev]

Agreed.  I think that makes Voth untouchable right now because he'd be the one to most likely to replace Ross in the rotation.

Nah Giolito.

[Matugi]

Nah Giolito.

Who is also on an innings limit

[whytev]

Who is also on an innings limit

That can be managed ahead of time.

[Mathguy]

JCA - please do not try to add logic to these "trade for Turner or the sky is falling" doom sayers

well, it's not strictly a matter of looking at WAR.   you also have to consider roster depth and who you are replacing.  Mind you, I would not part with Ross, but the argument is that if you have someone in the wings like Giolito or Fedde or Taylor what's his name, you look at the drop off there from ross and look at the pick up in bullpen chain, as well as where you are on the contention curve, to decide whether the move makes sense.  I don't think you build a team for the long run by ignoring WAR, but you may be at point where moving a specific player makes contextual sense. 

[Matugi]

That can be managed ahead of time.

Giolito, at best, could give us like 6 meaningful starts this year.  There is no reason to rush him when Voth is basically ready and has no innings limit.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I don't disagree with you.  My point was that just throwing out WAR without team context is over-reliance on WAR.

I sorta assume most people here are at least familiar in passing with the team context.  Indeed, if you wanted to go all stat nerd on this, WPA is probably a better metric, at least for relievers.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I sorta assume most people here are at least familiar in passing with the team context.  Indeed, if you wanted to go all stat nerd on this, WPA is probably a better metric, at least for relievers.

I like WPA for relievers, too, especially in like roles.  It probably is less good by itself for spotting undervalued and overvalued relievers.  Someone like prime Stammen probably had a lower WPA due to how he was used as a lower leverage long guy.  I'd also think a one out guy (LOOGY or the rare ROOGY) may have an exaggerated WPA because they are often brought in mid-inning and are used often with a platoon advantage. 

Fun discussion and, again, I don't disagree with your bottom line about Ross.  If I were to move Ross for a reliever, then it would be Miller, with multiple years of team control at a reasonable cost for a closer type, and even that would require some thought.

[aspenbubba]

I like WPA for relievers, too, especially in like roles.  It probably is less good by itself for spotting undervalued and overvalued relievers.  Someone like prime Stammen probably had a lower WPA due to how he was used as a lower leverage long guy.  I'd also think a one out guy (LOOGY or the rare ROOGY) may have an exaggerated WPA because they are often brought in mid-inning and are used often with a platoon advantage. 

Fun discussion and, again, I don't disagree with your bottom line about Ross.  If I were to move Ross for a reliever, then it would be Miller, with multiple years of team control at a reasonable cost for a closer type, and even that would require some thought.

If you move Ross and with Gio underperforming and losing his roster spot besides Giolito who else is ready to step into a starter role? And of a more immediate concern is how do you fix the 'pen. Rivero needs to go down and Paps return could be well after the ASG.

[Monarch]

I hope we don't trade ross at all. if he ends the season in the pen (maybe taking Rivero's spot if he continues to struggle)...I don't know what move there is to make, but the ceiling of this team is very limited if we just roll with Paps or this committee approach for a while.

maybe a 3-team trade could work with the NYY. some other team sends them a SP, we throw in some prospects to one or both teams, we come out with the RP we want? I know its not that simple, but I like that better than just dealing ross (or giolito or ross).

[Monarch]

who should Gio G's replacement be? I'm at the point where his starts are pretty much losses at this point. I get that he was good except one inning last night....
he's given up 10BB, 35H and 24 ER in his last 29IP. 41K's are nice though.

wanted to bump this. he was awful again yesterday. more than just one bad inning, too.

[BrandonK]

Some of this thread is just insane.  Closers pitch 60 innings per year.  A fantastic closer is worth 2.5 WAR.  That's a slightly above average starting pitcher.  Joe Ross is already at 1.3 for this season, in keeping with the fact that he right now is a slightly above average starter.  You do not trade a slightly above average starter with 4 more years of team control for a closer in his walk year who, if everything works out perfectly, might be worth as much as the starter you're trading (and for whom, by the way, you have no ready replacement). 

Further, where do most good closers come from?  They're failed starters.  Miller is that, Chapman is that, even Mariano Rivera was that.  Don't trade a starting pitcher for a reliever.

Nice job, Elvir! 

[monkeyhit]

Gio's done, so what does Rizzo do?  Also need bullpen help too, Mike.

[imref]

So how about a package of Ross and someone for Jacob Lindgren and Dellin Betances?  Lindgren is working his way back from injury but showed a lot before he got hurt. 

[Elvir Ovcina]

Gio's done, so what does Rizzo do?  Also need bullpen help too, Mike.

According to people on this thread, trade Ross for a reliever so you have two gaping holes in the rotation rather than one and a closer for the 3 out of 5 games that you have any chance of winning. 

[mikerizzosweewee]

Give Turner back to SD for Rodney+

[whytev]

Give Turner back to SD for Rodney+

Nooooooooooooo.

[HattoriHanzo]

According to people on this thread, trade Ross for a reliever so you have two gaping holes in the rotation rather than one and a closer for the 3 out of 5 games that you have any chance of winning. 

Gio and Roark are sketchy to begin with so the team already has a 3 out of 5 chance of winning those games. I still don't know how Roark does it. His stuff is terrible and his control is average, but he does try to move the ball all over and mix up speeds, but I am scared of him whenever he takes the mound. Maybe Voth and Solis could start if people are so worried about Giolito and his innings limit. Fedde and Lopez are not ready for MLB pitching on a starter level. And Lopez might be able to be a decent reliever this year if given a shot. The nats just have too many relievers that can't get a strikeout. Petit, Ollie, Belisle, and Paps can't blow hitters away and an elite bullpen requires guys who can smoke batters.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Gio and Roark are sketchy to begin with so the team already has a 3 out of 5 chance of winning those games. I still don't know how Roark does it. His stuff is terrible and his control is average, but he does try to move the ball all over and mix up speeds, but I am scared of him whenever he takes the mound. Maybe Voth and Solis could start if people are so worried about Giolito and his innings limit. Fedde and Lopez are not ready for MLB pitching on a starter level. And Lopez might be able to be a decent reliever this year if given a shot. The nats just have too many relievers that can't get a strikeout. Petit, Ollie, Belisle, and Paps can't blow hitters away and an elite bullpen requires guys who can smoke batters.

I don't get the Roark fears.  He didn't do well in relief last year, but a lot of guys don't when they get jerked around.  He has 4 usable pitches, all of which he controls decently.  It's all about mixing speeds and locations, and he does it well.  Yes, he doesn't throw 95 all the time, but hitting against guys with 2 different speed pitches that spin like fastballs, 2 different speed pitches that spin like breaking balls, and most of them pretty well located isn't easy.  That stuff plays. 

Gio's the worry.  He's only got 3 pitches and his changeup looks shot over the last month or so.  His location has never been good.  So he's basically down to a fastball at 90 and a nice curveball, which you can work with if you have excellent control.  That's not there.  He has to get his changeup back or he's going to keep getting pounded.

[Truconfidence]

Give Turner back to SD for Rodney+

No, thats like dealing with Soriano and Paplebon finishes x infinity. Dude has been lights out this year but his control is terrible. He could walk 5 guys in a row easy.

[Slateman]

Give Turner back to SD for Rodney+

Sure, if the "+" is Wil Myers, Ryan Buchter, and Manuel Margot

[welch]

Link please

OK...you want me to do some work, eh? Hmm. I think it was somewhere on this one: Empire Writes Back, https://empirewritesback.com/category/new-york-yankees/

Premise: The Yankees should trade with Washington rather than the Cubs because trading Chapman to the Cubs would let the Cubs walk through to a World Series win. Yankees need young players, and the Nats have a farm system stocked with prospects. Yankees should ask for Giolito and Turner. (!!)

Here it is:

https://empirewritesback.com/2016/06/15/yankees-trade-nationals-not-cubs/

The New York Yankees should be picky when it comes to who they trade with and what they get in return, and the Washington Nationals fit the bill.

In what has emerged as an unfavorable trend, the New York Yankees, try as they might, cannot seem to climb above the .500 mark. And even though this season isn’t even halfway finished, it’s hard to imagine this club finishing with anything better than an 81-81 record.

I’m not saying by any means it’s time to sound the alarm and abandon ship, but perhaps now would be the time to take advantage of another team’s misfortune; that club being the Washington Nationals. Nats’ closer Jonathan Papelbon is headed to the 15-day DL with an intercostal strain he suffered while warming up over the weekend, leaving ex-Yankee Shawn Kelley or Matt Belisle to pick up the slack.

So this is where the Yankees come into the equation. There is no doubt many a team will come calling for one of Yanks’ big three out of the pen. We’ve already gotten word that the Chicago Cubs would love to work a deal, but aren’t willing to move any one of their top three possessions, namely Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber or Willson Contreras.

<snip some word re Papelbon>

So why should the Yankees send a proven commodity to Chicago, one that might catapult them to their first World Series appearance since 1945, if they’re not serious about exchanging talent for talent?

As a matter of fact, it’s a bit insulting that the Cubs wouldn’t trade Schwarber, who’s out for the season after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee. This is a man without a position. And no, he can’t play left field, as he routinely turns deep fly balls into doubles. Also, do the Yankees really need another DH? Especially one who is 23 years of age, that will be coming off major knee reconstruction.

I realize all the aforementioned players are still young, and any one of them could turn the corner and the be the next great whatever, but to break up the best part of your team, the bullpen, the Yankees should demand more.

That’s why the Washington Nationals make the most sense for trade partners. Not only did Dusty Baker manage Aroldis Chapman when he first broke into the majors with the Cincinnati Reds, but the Nats are flush with minor league talent that Baker won’t play anytime soon, yet could help the Yankees right away.

As I’ve said before, Chapman is the arm I push off on anther club because of the concern he doesn’t resign after this season. Andrew Miller is a trooper; besides that, he’s signed through 2018. How many other guys do you know that saved 36 games the previous year, would be willing to move to the setup role because it’s what is best for the team?

I mean, Jonathan Papelbon wouldn’t do it last year after being acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies. And as for Dellin Betances, if the Nats want him, they’ll have to back up the proverbial truck to make that trade scenario work.

The first two names on my wish list are shortstop Trea Turner and pitcher Lucas Giolito. Both appear ready to make an immediate impact; Giolito, who is only 21-years-old, was recently named the Eastern League pitcher of the week, striking out 12 batters in seven innings of work. Yes, it’s only Double-A ball, but in Giolito’s last seven starts, he’s 5-0 with a 1.48 ERA, bringing his season’s earned run average to a fantastic 2.64, for fifth-best in the league.

Turner, on the other hand, was recently called up from Triple-A for a three-game series when Ryan Zimmerman went on paternity leave. All he did was was go 3-3 with a double and a walk. I get it if the Nationals are reluctant to deal their top two prospects, but if you’re the Yankees, you have to at least ask. Standing firm in your demands could potentially yield you a cornerstone type player.

Quite simply, the Washington Nationals can ill-afford to mess around with an already thin bullpen. If they wait for Papelbon to return from the disabled list and he pitches at the same quality level or less, this club could once again find themselves blowing a sizeable lead in the National League East to the New York Mets.

A mix of the obvious and the laughable.

[whytev]

No, thats like dealing with Soriano and Paplebon finishes x infinity. Dude has been lights out this year but his control is terrible. He could walk 5 guys in a row easy.

I went to the Mariners game the day after they released him. Happiest crowd I've ever seen.

[HattoriHanzo]

I don't get the Roark fears.  He didn't do well in relief last year, but a lot of guys don't when they get jerked around.  He has 4 usable pitches, all of which he controls decently.  It's all about mixing speeds and locations, and he does it well.  Yes, he doesn't throw 95 all the time, but hitting against guys with 2 different speed pitches that spin like fastballs, 2 different speed pitches that spin like breaking balls, and most of them pretty well located isn't easy.  That stuff plays. 

Gio's the worry.  He's only got 3 pitches and his changeup looks shot over the last month or so.  His location has never been good.  So he's basically down to a fastball at 90 and a nice curveball, which you can work with if you have excellent control.  That's not there.  He has to get his changeup back or he's going to keep getting pounded.

With the exception of a couple of games, Roark is going out and pitching with terrible stuff. He does mix up speeds and locations and that's it. The movement on his pitches are virtually nil except when gravity takes over. I always watch him early to see if he has the 2 seamer working. If he doesn't then he has to work hard all game long. With his 2 seamer moving he's going to have a good game. Roark is really the least talented starter on this team by a lot. A better pitcher than gio because he mentally and physically battles than gio, sure he is.

[Smithian]

Tanner Roark is in his second full season of starting and, like last time, he has an ERA around 3 while headed for about 200 innings pitched. That's pretty darn good. I think he cleans up this summer in arbitration and sticks around for at least a couple more years as a middle rotation starter for the Nats. A lot of teams would love to have that production in their #1 or #2 starter and we have it in a guy who is battling with Joe Ross for who's third best.

[spidernat]

I think he cleans up this summer in arbitration and sticks around for at least a couple more years as a middle rotation starter for the Nats.

A lot of teams would love to have that production in their #1 or #2 starter

Only teams like the 2006-2010 Nationals want that out of their front line starters.