Valuing and Evaluating prospects in low minors (split from Robles thread)

[UMDNats]

I agree that Double-A is the weeding-out level, but I don't think the majority of college prospects can/will/do start there! That's it! I spent time at 4 of the NYY minor league levels this year and 90% of college players were in A+ and A-ball. Their numbers there aren't useless, but I also don't ignore them because you can see who is standing out as opposed to just using their experience to overcome kids. Like you, I value AA numbers more than any A-ball levels.

It's above a college all-star level because the players there are far more mature and developed. They're mostly people who have spent 2-4 years in the system already. Just a different beast. I agree with your first point but the numbers just don't back up that most college players end their first full season in AA. The great ones, the top picks, sure. I expect James Kaprielian (NYY 1st rounder) to finish his first full year in AAA or MLB. But Kyle Holder, Jeff Degano and the rest of their college players will begin in A or A+ and end there. A few to AA, but not many.

Thinking to NYY's system, they had 2 very, very good college players (Jonathan Holder and Jordan Montgomery) finish their first full seasons in A+ despite excellent years. Their A-ball team (Charleston) had a bunch of college kids on it the last 2 years, most of which are still in A+ but will get a shot in AA this year.

[Slateman]

I agree that Double-A is the weeding-out level, but I don't think the majority of college prospects can/will/do start there! That's it! I spent time at 4 of the NYY minor league levels this year and 90% of college players were in A+ and A-ball. Their numbers there aren't useless, but I also don't ignore them because you can see who is standing out as opposed to just using their experience to overcome kids. Like you, I value AA numbers more than any A-ball levels.

It's above a college all-star level because the players there are far more mature and developed. They're mostly people who have spent 2-4 years in the system already. Just a different beast.

It's above the college All Star level so thats where they send all the college All stars for their first full season of ball. Got it.

[UMDNats]

It's above the college All Star level so thats where they send all the college All stars for their first full season of ball. Got it.

Find me examples of teams that sent more than a couple draft picks to AA immediately for their first full season. Maybe I'm wrong. I can't think of a single one in the NYY system. Even Judge started in A-ball. Kaprielian might. Holder won't. Even the fast-moving relievers start in A+ usually.

I also think we have a different concept of a college all-star. I consider any all-conference player an "all-star," not just the Rendons of the world who are one of the 1 or 2 best college players.

[BrandonK]

Brandon Watson the GOAT

[whytev]

i don't even know why i'm arguing this point. i actually agreed with your original premise! god damnit.

I could use that as a stock reply to a lot of Slate conversations.

[Slateman]

Find me examples of teams that sent more than a couple draft picks to AA immediately for their first full season. Maybe I'm wrong. I can't think of a single one in the NYY system. Even Judge started in A-ball. Kaprielian might. Holder won't. Even the fast-moving relievers start in A+ usually.

I also think we have a different concept of a college all-star. I consider any all-conference player an "all-star," not just the Rendons of the world who are one of the 1 or 2 best college players.

Judge went straight out of high school. He didn't play college ball. But you know who was a "good" college player and started in High A ball his first full season? Eric Jagielo.

Brian Goodwin, Christian Colon, Mike Zuinno, Tyler Naquin, James Ramesy, Devin Marrero, and Kolten Wong are all examples of players who were in Double A ball in their first full season. None of them were the "1 or 2 best college players." The "All Conference" thing is a bullcrap argument, as there are multiple "all conference teams" that have players that wouldn't make a college baseball all star team. Or even get drafted in the first ten rounds.

Bottom line is that if by the conclusion of the first full season, the college drafted player isn't sniffing Double A, they're either going to take a long time to develop or are a bust.

[UMDNats]

Aaron Judge went to Fresno State, man.

[Kevrock]

Anthony Rendon is not a superstar.

He was a college superstar, consensus number one in a stacked class heading into his draft season. He was a very advanced college hitter.

[Slateman]

Aaron Judge went to Fresno State, man.

Oh look, was in high A ball his first year (short season) in professional baseball. And then in his first full season of professional ball, he starts in Double A. Huh ... go figure.

He was a college superstar, consensus number one in a stacked class heading into his draft season. He was a very advanced college hitter.

So what you're saying is that he would probably start on a college all start team? Jeez, it's almost like he should be in Double A right off the bat ... let's see ... finished his "short season" at double A and started the next season (first full season) in double A. So, like I said, if you're a legit college all star (ie, top 3-4 at your position) and not some third team all conference guy (the third best at your position, who is probably looking at starting in High A ball and working his way to Double A by the time his first full season is ending.

Thank you both for making my point for me.

[BrandonK]

Robles would be a college freshman this upcoming year

[UMDNats]

Aaron Judge never played in short season and started his second season in AA after going to the AFL. His first season he was in Charleston (full-season A), then finished in Tampa (A+). AFL that offseason, then AA.

Not sure how you're seeing he played short season. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=judge-001aar

[BrandonK]

Stevenson was a SEC "All Star" and played at Hagerstown this year, after a stint in the GCL.

[BrandonK]

I am with Slate though: if you're 20-23 and have played lights out in college, you should probably be able to put up at AA or you're not a legit prospect (sans pitchers).

[Natsinpwc]

This thread and all others about anyone below double A should be shut down since performance below that level doesn't matter.

[NJ Ave]

I'd like you to give me a list of players over the past five seasons who ended up in AA in their signing season. The most advanced couple of players from a draft isn't "all-star level". Andrew Stevenson is what I would term a college all-star (1st team all-SEC, third team AA) and ended up in low-A. I would bet that 95% of guys who made all-conference, all-AA etc. do not progress past low-A their signing season.

[BrandonK]

2014 DI All-American
• C Max Pentecost, Kennesaw St. (Player of Year Atlantic Sun Conference). Made it to A in signing year. Injured/out all of2015
• 1B Casey Gillaspie, Wichita St. (Player of Year Missouri Valley Conference). Only made it A in 2015
• 2B Jace Conrad, Louisiana-Lafayette (Player of Year Sun Belt Conference). Only made it A in 2015
• OF Michael Conforto, Oregon St. (Player of Year Pac-12 Conference). MLB in 2015
• OF Michael Katz, William & Mary (Player of Year Colonial Athletic Association). Only made it A in 2015
• UT A.J. Reed, Kentucky (Player of Year Southeastern Conference). AA in 2015

2013 All-American
 C   Stuart Turner, Mississippi. Only made it A in 2014
1B    D.J. Peterson, New Mexico. AA in 2014
2B    Tony Kemp, Vanderbilt. AA in 2014
3B    Kris Bryant, San Diego. AAA in 2014
SS    Alex Bregman, Louisiana State. Drafted in 2015
OF    Daniel Palka, Georgia Tech. Only made it A in 2014
OF    Mike Papi, Virginia. Drafted in 2014 (only made it to A in 2015)
OF    Hunter Renfroe, Mississippi State. AA in 2014
DH    Colin Moran, North Carolina. AA in 2014
UT    Michael Lorenzen, Cal State Fullerton. Pitcher (made it to AAA in 2014)

[Slateman]

Aaron Judge never played in short season and started his second season in AA after going to the AFL. His first season he was in Charleston (full-season A), then finished in Tampa (A+). AFL that offseason, then AA.

Not sure how you're seeing he played short season. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=judge-001aar

He started in rookie ball. 24 games with the Scorpions. They then put him on the low A and high A teams. So in other words, right out of the gate, as a college player, but not all star level college player, he was in High A ball. And to start the next season, Double A. Amazing. Thank you for supporting my case.

[Slateman]

I am with Slate though: if you're 20-23 and have played lights out in college, you should probably be able to put up at AA or you're not a legit prospect (sans pitchers).

Pitchers and catchers I would say. A lot of catchers spend time at lower levels to develop their defense and game calling.

[UMDNats]

This thread and all others about anyone below double A should be shut down since performance below that level doesn't matter.

I think performance in full-season A and A+ matters, but there are lot of variables that affect how much I weigh a player's statistics like I said earlier. Weirdly enough I value a scout's opinion on a player when they're 18-20 more than I do their actual stats. Just so much can change in that time period in a player.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

thinking about splitting this thread at reply 80 or 89.  It is a good discussion about evaluating and valuing prospects at lower levels, but it is not Robles-specific.

[BrandonK]

thinking about splitting this thread at reply 80 or 89.  It is a good discussion about evaluating and valuing prospects at lower levels, but it is not Robles-specific.

Good idea.