Author Topic: Nationals @ Braves, Game 2  (Read 10641 times)

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Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 3967
Re: Nationals @ Braves, Game 2
« Reply #125: October 01, 2015, 09:18:06 AM »
VaRK - here are the top 20 pitcher contracts by Annual average value (AAV):
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

Basically, in 2013, it took maybe the elite to make $24MM+ AAV (Verlander, Greinke, Hernandez, Hamels), and they all got 6 or 7 years. By 2014, you saw Tanaka getting that money, and and Kershaw blowing that away at $30MM+.  By 2015, you saw that money going to the Lester, and you saw the top tier getting Scherzer money.  Porcello was a year away from free agency and got over $20MM AAV for a 4 year extension. 

6 years, $150MM is $25MM a year for a 1A or a #2 is the low end of the market (Waino took a home town discount, which JZ will not do). With money sloshing around, I see JZ easily topping 5 years $124MM.  Very likely, he ends up with 6 years and $148MM ($24MM AAV) guaranteed, and some sort of option with a buy out that gets him over $150MM.

What's more striking about that list is how few of those pitchers were anything better than millstones by the end of their contracts.  The jury is still out on the more recent ones, of course, but there are a lot of lessons to be learned from some of those.