Author Topic: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.  (Read 160724 times)

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Offline varoadking

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1425 on: August 27, 2015, 05:26:11 pm »
I think what is being missed here is Williams says "We do it all the time."  This is what he teaches...

Offline PC

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1426 on: August 27, 2015, 05:32:42 pm »
You can't blame the pupil when the teacher is a dunce.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1427 on: August 27, 2015, 05:43:20 pm »
.
You can't blame the pupil when the teacher is a dunce.
Williams is horrible at these press conferences, and I don't think he is as dumb as he seems.   I believe that conceptually he has it right, as concerns 3-0, which is a fairly simple concept. He just doesn't express it well, in these conferences. I honestly don't believe that he doesn't get the point across to the players.   

Again, I'm not defending him and I don't like him. But I try to be objective.

Offline PC

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1428 on: August 27, 2015, 06:23:18 pm »
Chelsea Janes ‏@chelsea_janes  2h2 hours ago

Williams said Span woke up a little sore today, needs a day of rest. They expected him to need a few of those.

Offline PC

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1429 on: August 27, 2015, 06:26:22 pm »
Chelsea Janes ‏@chelsea_janes  2h2 hours ago

Williams said Span woke up a little sore today, needs a day of rest. They expected him to need a few of those.

Why is Matt Williams so stupid?  I suppose it's the question of the year but in this case it's about Span's back.  DON'T MENTION THE BACK, MATT!  Just say we planned on easing him back in the first week...blah blah blah.  Mentioning "soreness" was irrelevant. 

Terry Collins gave David Wright the day off yesterday and, shockingly, didn't mention Wright's back.

Offline whytev

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1430 on: August 27, 2015, 06:56:45 pm »
Why is Matt Williams so stupid?  I suppose it's the question of the year but in this case it's about Span's back.  DON'T MENTION THE BACK, MATT!  Just say we planned on easing him back in the first week...blah blah blah.  Mentioning "soreness" was irrelevant. 

Terry Collins gave David Wright the day off yesterday and, shockingly, didn't mention Wright's back.

Wright's hands hurt from too much hi-fiving is why.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1431 on: August 27, 2015, 08:14:03 pm »
Nothing to do with expectancies of every potential outcome, etc.   Just about 3-0, that's all.

You should apply the next time Matt Williams has a bench coach opening. That's the perfect mindset for this club.

I mean, of COURSE it should have something to do with every potential outcome. Let's say Yunel is a .300 hitter and Ryan is a .250 hitter, just to make it simple.

Well Yunel is like 90% to make first base via walk from 3-0. You have a 90% chance at a .250 hitter who can drive in two runs with a base hit (to take the lead) or a 100% chance at a .300 hitter who can drive in one run with a base hit (to tie the game).

Only a fool looks at that and says, ".308 hitter, good RBI man, standard decision".

It's probably a sixth of a run difference in expected runs. And anyone who thinks that's within the error bars of "go with your gut" try adding all those times we go with 1/6 of a run worse plays based on "gut feel" and "standard decisions", add them up, and then check the freaking standings.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1432 on: August 27, 2015, 09:03:29 pm »
Taking Joe Ross out at 77 pitches and one hit.

Offline whytev

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1433 on: August 27, 2015, 09:18:34 pm »
Taking Joe Ross out at 77 pitches and one hit.

If it means one more start from him this year I am okay with this.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1434 on: August 27, 2015, 09:19:30 pm »
If it means one more start from him this year I am okay with this.
I don't think saving another 20-30 pitches will give him an extra start.

Offline whytev

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1435 on: August 27, 2015, 09:21:28 pm »
I don't think saving another 20-30 pitches will give him an extra start.

It will if he is able to do this next start as well.

Offline whytev

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1436 on: August 27, 2015, 09:34:45 pm »
Gio had two bad starts in a row with Lobatón. Ramos has 2 homers this week. I'm fine with it.

Escobar cost us more playing 3rd yesterday than hitting. He partly put us in that situation of having to come back so hard. Everyone says he is a great teammate, but you have to wonder how he wrangled his way out of playing 2nd. It's a whole different game with him on 2nd but Rendon is better than him at 3rd and was amazing when Escobar ran into that guy and had to sit. I wish Williams had just stuck to the plan and moved him back to second.

Suddenly feel like bumping this.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1437 on: August 27, 2015, 09:43:14 pm »
Suddenly feel like bumping this.
Rendon is better than Escobar at second and third.  Take your pick. Can't get too upset with Esvobar after the year he has had.

Offline whytev

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1438 on: August 27, 2015, 10:06:25 pm »
Rendon is better than Escobar at second and third.  Take your pick. Can't get too upset with Esvobar after the year he has had.

Put them both in the lineup for their bats, but optimise your defence!

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1439 on: August 27, 2015, 10:11:56 pm »
I mean, jesus, "the players are smart enough" is soooooooo close to "standard decision".

You think a player is supposed to know what the run expectancies are of every potential outcome of his at bat, on every pitch?

HELL NO. That's the manager's job, with his coaches and analytics staff.

I want our fricking team doing something more than "looking for a pitch to hit". LOOKING FOR A FRICKING PITCH TO HIT IS EXACTLY WHY WE ARE WHERE WE ARE.

Have you read a single one of my posts? I'm wondering if any teams give hard take signs in MLB at all and if so, how common it is. I'm not even talking about Williams except to wonder if this is completely the norm at the MLB level.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1440 on: August 27, 2015, 11:47:50 pm »
Taking Joe Ross out at 77 pitches and onezero hit.

FTFY

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1441 on: August 28, 2015, 08:41:34 am »
Have you read a single one of my posts? I'm wondering if any teams give hard take signs in MLB at all and if so, how common it is. I'm not even talking about Williams except to wonder if this is completely the norm at the MLB level.

And MY point is that if your players are so stupid they need a hard take sign to take a pitch in a situation where that's clearly the decision they should make, then give them the hard take.

I don't give a crap what the norm is in baseball. You can argue that baseball players should be smart enough to do EVERYTHING by themselves. They've been playing the game for 20 years, why can't they steal themselves, position themselves defensively, call pitch outs, bunts, etc?

But if they are NOT, then it's the manager's job with his coaching staff to optimize their decisionmaking so they're not costing the team runs.

Furthermore, Williams admitted that his guys don't have a hard take on 3-0, they have the discretion to swing away, pretty much throughout the lineup. So if you give your players that discretion, then you HAVE to issue a hard take in a scenario you know requires a hard take, to eliminate the possibility of a swing.

Your position seems to be that if a guy gets a perfect pitch, maybe it's a good play to swing. And I think you're probably right in some scenarios. But in THIS specific scenario, I wonder what the BABIP would have to be to make it a decent play. I bet well over .500, and I'm not sure Yunel Escobar would ever reach that on any pitch (and of course we know what the result was).

Offline Slateman

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1442 on: August 30, 2015, 11:28:12 pm »
Hire Chris Bosio. If he can turn Arietta in to a stud, imagine what he'll do with Ross, Roark, and Giolitio

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1443 on: August 31, 2015, 10:19:11 am »
Hire Chris Bosio. If he can turn Arietta in to a stud, imagine what he'll do with Ross, Roark, and Giolitio

Somewhat in agreement that it seems like teams have more sustained success with guys who can actually TEACH the pitchers something. Like the Cardinals sinker, cutter, Mets slider, etc. Have any of our pitchers really sustained a lot of improvement from when they arrive on our major league club?  I don't know if that is a McCatty problem or a personnel problem, but I'm no longer certain he's an answer or anything.

Offline BrandonK

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1444 on: August 31, 2015, 10:46:45 pm »
Still a GD idiot.

Offline PC

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1445 on: August 31, 2015, 11:40:11 pm »
Not going to Rivero against Carpenter was inexplicable.  When you have pitchers like Janssen, you have to be keen about how he's pitching, what kind of calls he's getting or not getting. If he's not getting the calls he needs to get, you have to know to get him out of the game, quickly.

Offline pazzo83

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1446 on: August 31, 2015, 11:41:33 pm »
Not going to Rivero against Carpenter was inexplicable.  When you have pitchers like Janssen, you have to be keen about how he's pitching, what kind of calls he's getting or not getting. If he's not getting the calls he needs to get, you have to know to get him out of the game, quickly.

Rivero or Thornton.

Offline PC

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1447 on: September 01, 2015, 01:47:05 am »

Offline whytev

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1448 on: September 01, 2015, 03:04:58 am »
You knew Keith Law, who despises Matt Williams would weigh in.

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/638557247895924736

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/638544192524918784

Strong points. With the double switch you have 4 outs to get with one of them, 3 with the other. Putting aside Janssen's results, he threw like 26 pitches. That's a lot for a single inning guy. You don't think Storen or Pap can get that out and still get 3 more after?

I don't want to see him tomorrow. I want him on a plane.

Offline rileyn

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Re: Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.
« Reply #1449 on: September 01, 2015, 06:27:25 am »
Standard Decision wet the bed against last night at crunch time.  Not bringing in Rivero, who was warmed up, to face Carpenter was nuts.  When the team needs him most, he comes up small.  He has to go.