Fire Matt Williams! (2015) - Standard Decision.

[aussienatsfan]

It's a lot of angst over one call.  Is it possible he's falling on the sword here and he didn't give Escobar the green light?  Escobar swung on his own and Williams is covering?

The guy isn't that smart, cmon man

[NJ Ave]

Even if they "do it all the time" it's still clearly the wrong time to do it. As everyone is pointing out, it's just another sign that Williams has absolutely no nuance or ability to read situations.

1 out, you just had a 2-run single, pitcher on the ropes with 3 straight balls, about to be based loaded...it's just NOT THE FREAKING TIME TO BAIL HIM OUT.

Let him hang himself, for heaven's sake.

Just the last straw for me. If they don't fire him this offseason, I don't know if I can handle 2016, which I have every confidence will be another wasted year with Williams at the helm.

[BrandonK]

does long term steroid use impair cognitive abilities?

 

It's a lot of angst over one call.  Is it possible he's falling on the sword here and he didn't give Escobar the green light?  Escobar swung on his own and Williams is covering?

No way. Yuni would have to be benched if he went off the rails like that.

[OldChelsea]

So will Williams be sacked if the Nats miss the post-season?

If there's any way to do it, keep an eye on STH renewals and new STH purchases. If long-time supporters are bailing over this very disappointing season and STH renewals tank, then he could be on shaky ground. But if the total STH roster (both incumbents and newcomers) stays more or less the same or even goes up, then the front office will take this as overall satisfaction with the status quo and few, if any, changes will be made. It's the same thing the Redskins have been doing - despite little on-the-gridiron success in the past two-decades-plus, there's still (supposedly) that STH waiting list* so why make changes?

The bottom line is the only language these front-office types understand.


*For what it's worth, it's still on the Skins' website (http://tickets.redskins.com/general-season-tickets/?icampaign=tickets_button_waitlist)

[HalfSmokes]

It's a lot of angst over one call.  Is it possible he's falling on the sword here and he didn't give Escobar the green light?  Escobar swung on his own and Williams is covering?

possible (maybe likely), and if the team was performing up to expectations, no one would care about that call. When things went well, he got a pass from most fans, now things aren't and he's going to get killed for every bad move; that's just how it is being a manager- undeserved credit balanced by undeserved blame

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's a lot of angst over one call.  Is it possible he's falling on the sword here and he didn't give Escobar the green light?  Escobar swung on his own and Williams is covering?

that might explain the dissembling.

[dracnal]

I don't buy it. I think that nearly all the guys have a green light signal in that count. It's a call where if it works, it ties the game and if it doesn't he has to answer for it. He wasn't prepared to answer for it because he hasn't been able to figure out how to deal with the press now that they don't like him.

Last year, they bought the puff tropes and stock quotes. This year, the team doesn't have Stammen, Clippard, Soriano (who was effective at least part of last season) and Storen fell off a cliff after we got Papelbon. Made it really easy to make the same decision every night because they had a consistently rock solid long relief guy for when the starter got shelled and three pitchers with closer on their resume.

[NJ Ave]

that might explain the dissembling.

But he answers the same way for ALL of his failures. I don't see it. I mean, obviously the final decision to swing is Escobar's if his sign is "look for a fat one", so what are we suggesting, that he got a take sign and swung anyways? I just don't see it.

If he didn't get a take sign at all, I still blame Matt Williams and think it's another example of where he probably thinks he's "empowering" players when in actuality he's giving them chances to fail.

[NJ Ave]

It's a call where if it works, it ties the game and if it doesn't he has to answer for it.

Exactly, but it also has a well under 50% chance of tying the game and a well over 50% chance of NOT tying the game.

Meanwhile, you have a >90% chance of walking your way into a situation with a run expectancy of over 1.5 runs in a 1-run ballgame.

#standarddecision #winningbaseball

[BrandonK]

Exactly, but it also has a well under 50% chance of tying the game and a well over 50% chance of NOT tying the game.

Meanwhile, you have a >90% chance of walking your way into a situation with a run expectancy of over 1.5 runs in a 1-run ballgame.

#standarddecision #winningbaseball

That's not how we play ball! Looking 3-0 to elevate one. Standard decision

[Mr Clean]

Exactly, but it also has a well under 50% chance of tying the game and a well over 50% chance of NOT tying the game.

Meanwhile, you have a >90% chance of walking your way into a situation with a run expectancy of over 1.5 runs in a 1-run ballgame.

#standarddecision #winningbaseball

Not to mention that the green light on 3-0 may put the hitter into a different mindset and be more prone to swing. Zim will never swing 3-0 and I think that's a good thing.

[Kevrock]

Do any teams give hard red takes tot he top half of their order?

[dracnal]

Do any teams give hard red takes tot he top half of their order?

Actually, that's an interesting question.  I know that hit and runs, run and hits, squeeze plays, etc. are signaled from the bench, but just how closely are hitters typically micromanaged at the plate?  Do they discuss general approach with the hitting coach and then get left to put it in play? Do they get told 'Take until you get a strike' when a pitcher has no control, or are they expected to recognize the guy has thrown 12 pitches, three of them wild, only 2 for strikes and take on their own?

Are different managers more aggressive about how much they micro? How much direction do the catchers get? Now I want to read a book about baseball managers.

[shoeshineboy]

Add in the fact that Yunel had not had a hit on 3-0 all year (8 PAs, 8 BBs), and that he was only 1 for 7 after a 3-0 count (with 13 BBs, IIRC - quoted above).  To say we do it all the time, .308, good RBI guy, 5th hitter is a smoke screen.  To say "we do this with just about everybody" may be true (we don't know, maybe most of these guys who walk had green lights but decided to take), but then the ".308, good RBI guy, hitting 5th" is just BS smoke.  It's the old, "when were you lying to me, what you first said or what you now?"

Again, I go back to the Fangraphs article where almost every guy mentions how Bochy puts guys in positions to succeed and keeps them out of situations where they're uncomfortable and might fail.

I think it's possible Williams is TRYING to do the same thing, but just has a completely erroneous sense of how likely guys are to succeed or fail in certain spots. Like he would think the ultimate thing to do would be to put up a rookie with the bases loaded and 2 outs in the World Series - because how could you "succeed" more than that? - and have a complete failure to understand that if the situation overwhelms the person they are far less likely to succeed at all.

Here's the situation as a GOOD manager would have seen it:

1. We're struggling to stay in the division race, and that's our only way into the playoffs.
2. We've scratched and clawed our way back into the game, but we're still down by one.
3. 1st and 3rd, 1 out. The runner on 1st WILL score from 2nd on a base hit.
4. In 1,357 plate appearances with a 3-0 count in the NL this season, there have been 1,240 walks (91.4%) but only a .345 average on non-walks.
5. Your hitter has no power, is 8TH in the league in GB%, and is 6TH in the league in GIDP.
6. With the bases loaded and 1 out (the situation if Yunel walks) NL hitters this year have an OPS 36% better than average and have averaged .81 RBI per PA. By situational OPS, it's the 5th best situation to be in as a hitter this season, out of 37 hitting situations.

I don't think there's a second option in that situation. Matt Williams clearly wants to give Yunel the "chance to succeed" and it's clearly not the right situation to do it in. You take the walk against a pitcher who has already given up two runs, you load the bases, and you use your two batters to try to get a game-tying base hit. Stop trying to outsmart everyone, you big dummy. You have the WORST instincts of any manager in baseball.

The other thing about that situation that kills me is that on TV, you could see Williams giving a nod. Not even an attempt to mask the intent. Everyone in the Giants dugout would have seen the same thing and knew he had the green light. Makes it easier for the pitcher to avoid grooving anything and taking advantage of a batter's aggressiveness.

Still too many other situations where the approach at the plate squanders opportunities. Honestly, I am already excited about next season knowing (hoping) that Desmond's insanity at the plate will be gone and replaced with someone who may actually understand situational hitting and contact. I don't like to mindfact, but I believe we have at least a few more wins this season if we don't have Desmond's pathetic approach in so many situations where simply putting a ball in play could change the complexion of a game. And why does Wilson Ramos still get to stand at the plate in a way making it almost impossible to hit a ball low and away, when he can't seem to ever lay off those pitches? Why would you throw anything else to him. 

[NJ Ave]

Do any teams give hard red takes tot he top half of their order?

This strays into "standard decision" territory. I would hope not, but I would also hope that there would be situations where you DO give a hard take sign.

One of those situations would be 3-0 to a slow GB hitter with no power, with runners on 1st and 3rd and down by 1.

If there's no one on base, or 2 outs and a runner on first or something? I think it's fine to give him the option.

[varoadking]

It's a lot of angst over one call.  Is it possible he's falling on the sword here and he didn't give Escobar the green light?  Escobar swung on his own and Williams is covering?

No...if he had given a red light, you can bet he would have thrown Yunel under the bus with a "he said missed the signal" at the very least.  He has done that before...

[PC]

It's a lot of angst over one call.  Is it possible he's falling on the sword here and he didn't give Escobar the green light?  Escobar swung on his own and Williams is covering?

Later on last night, I actually considered this as a possibility.  It was such a bad decision and his response to it in the post game presser was so terrible, I thought there had to be more to this than what it appeared.

[varoadking]

Later on last night, I actually considered this as a possibility.  It was such a bad decision and his response to it in the post game presser was so terrible, I thought there had to be more to this than what it appeared.

I thought he got his hand caught in the cookie jar, knew it, and had scripted that response well before the presser...

[Natsinpwc]

The worst thing to me about them not firing Matt is that he is a lightning rod and the underachieving players are getting a pass.  Such as last night. Even though Escobar had the green light he had no business swinging at a pitch on the outside part of the plate. Rookie mistake by a veteran.  And the Gio without Lobaton thing. Gio sucked the last couple of starts with Lobaton. Can't really blame Matt for that and trying to keep a hot hitter in the lineup. Don't get me wrong. I would like to see him fired. But ultimately managers only make a coupe games difference over a year. This year is 90 percent in the players to me.

[BrandonK]

The worst thing to me about them not firing Matt is that he is a lightning rod and the underachieving players are getting a pass.  Such as last night. Even though Escobar had the green light he had no business swinging at a pitch on the outside part of the plate. Rookie mistake by a veteran.  And the Gio without Lobaton thing. Gio sucked the last couple of starts with Lobaton. Can't really blame Matt for that and trying to keep a hot hitter in the lineup. Don't get me wrong. I would like to see him fired. But ultimately managers only make a coupe games difference over a year. This year is 90 percent in the players to me.

Why didn't Lobaton start?

[Natsinpwc]

Why didn't Lobaton start?

I think because Ramos had been hot. Of course it Matt so maybe he just flipped a coin.

[mitlen]

Why didn't Lobaton start?

Ramos had a one game hitting streak.     

[BrandonK]

I think because Ramos had been hot. Of course it Matt so maybe he just flipped a coin.

Ramos had a one game hitting streak.     

I thought it was MW that said Gio likes pitching to Lobaton?? Ramos has started a couple games in a row. Bet he's out tonight or tomorrow...

[imref]

Williams on the Junkies.  Emphasis added.

“There’s only one team standing at the end of the dance, right?” Williams said. “As a player, you understand how difficult it is. You understand what has to go right for you to be the world champion, and potentially what goes wrong if you’re not.”

“So is it a huge disappointment?” he said. “You know, as a player it’s not that big of a disappointment because you know you have next year, and you have another chance. But, you don’t reach your goal. You don’t reach the goal that you set out to in spring training.

“So what does that do to you? Well, for me, it just gives you more fire to get back there, more motivation to work hard in the winter time to prepare and start spring training anew the next year. But everybody wants to be the world champion. We do as well. And so, what we have to do at this point is try to get back in this race, try to get back to first place, and see where we can go from there.”

It's as if he knows he's running out the clock.

[mitlen]

Williams on the Junkies.  Emphasis added.

It's as if he knows he's running out the clock.

Looks like tomorrow has turned into next year.